Nothing could be further from the truth.
Since the capital was attacked, the war has now settled into a steady pattern of slow conflict in the East and South.
In the meantime the world has changed dramatically.
But what does the future hold?
From the battle for the south to inside the Kremlin, our editors and correspondents forecast the next six months of war.
“Putin may stage unconventional attacks to divert attention from stalemate on the battlefield”
Dominic Nicholls, Defense and Security Editor
Ukrainian officials say the war has bogged down at a “strategic stalemate.”
Moscow is unlikely to be able to change this situation much in the coming months, given that its forces are depleted, its precision munitions and ideas are exhausted.
Putin is unlikely to care about the toll exacted by the slow, corrosive defense his military is now achieving.
But to shift the focus away from his dead-end progress, he may decide he needs to disproportionately respond. In other words, we are unlikely to see a “traditional” response on the battlefield, and instead we should expect action away from the purely military sphere.
Which may explain the killing of Daria Dugina, the Russian propagandist, which analysts fear is a fake operation by the Kremlin to cover up new attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets in “retaliation”.
It may also explain the recent focus on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe.
If a major military breakthrough is to happen – and it’s a big “if” – it’s more likely to come from Ukraine.
The US is unlikely to change its position on denying Kyiv its 180-mile-range ATACMS missile. But the flow of other long-range precision weapons has hampered Moscow’s ambitions in the Donbas and helped set the stage for a counteroffensive in the south.
Combined with activity behind Russian lines by guerrilla or special forces units, as well as increased air defense systems that provide greater freedom of movement for Ukraine’s air force (which is likely to be reinforced by Mig-29s supplied by European partners), this bodes well for Ukraine.
Winter weather is likely to set the pace of the war for the rest of this year.
Ukraine will want to land a major blow before winter to boost morale and convince international partners to stay the course in the dark months. It is very likely that Kyiv will recapture the occupied city of Kherson to fulfill this need before the cold weather sets in.
“Kherson recapture is in the works – but it won’t be quick”
Campbell MacDiarmid, Foreign Correspondent, in Odessa
Six months after the start of Russia’s invasion, front lines have hardened across eastern and southern Ukraine, with control of the territory shifting only gradually in recent months.
However, one area where Ukraine is expected to make significant gains in the next six months is Kherson. The only regional capital to fall under Russian occupation, its liberation is now at the center of a cautious Ukrainian counteroffensive, though still in its early stages.
Kievan forces are perhaps 15 miles outside Kherson, which is on the right bank of the Dnipro River near its outlet to the Black Sea. About 20,000 Russian troops are stationed between the river, the sea and the Ukrainian front line.
Instead of attacking head-on, Ukraine has focused on disrupting Russian supply lines in the Kherson enclave, first by targeting bridges over the river and more recently by striking logistics hubs deep in Russia’s rear in annexed Crimea.
This apparently alarmed Russian forces enough to withdraw senior commanders from the right bank of the Dnipro.
But don’t expect a quick victory.
The Ukrainian military is prioritizing the preservation of its forces over the speed of its advance, Mykolaiv Governor Vitaly Kim told The Telegraph this week.
“Planning offensive moves is not that simple because we have the lives of our soldiers and the speed of our attacks and we have to balance them,” he said.
“In other countries everyone measures this war in days, but we measure our war in casualties.”
Although supply lines have been cut, Russian forces are still conducting limited offensives around Kherson, although this may change as their supplies run out.
Serhiy, an anesthesiologist serving with the Ukrainian army behind the Kherson front line, provided a medical analogy for the strategy. “We cut their veins and bleed them,” he said.
With this slow and steady strategy, Ukrainian officials hope to liberate Kherson by the end of the year.
“May it end with our victory by the end of this year,” Mr Kim said. “If [the troops] having more weapons and ammunition – precision and long-range weapons – will help us move faster and end this war faster.”
“Don’t expect a coup in Russia just yet”
Nataliya Vasilyeva, Russian Correspondent, in Istanbul
Just last week Vladimir Putin was still insisting that Russia’s “special operation” to conquer Ukraine was going according to plan.
But six months into the war, Moscow faces a serious manpower issue. At least 70,000 troops have been wounded or injured, according to Western intelligence, half the number sent there.
This is not only a military problem, it is also a political problem.
Some Russian soldiers are beginning to speak out against the war Credit: AP Photo
The Kremlin has so far stopped short of calling for general mobilization. Instead, he aggressively recruited soldiers – even in prisons. Many Russian troops are also returning to Ukraine for a second or third time.
But this comes at a price for Putin. Some soldiers begin to speak out against the war or defect, even if this carries the risk of a prison sentence.
Just last week, a former paratrooper released the first account of the war, detailing how he had to buy his own kit, was given a rusty rifle and had to sleep among stray dogs. His story may not be the last.
Russia’s silent majority has largely turned a blind eye to war crimes in Ukraine. For now they are happy to support the war from the comfort of their own living rooms. A request to go to the front line can change that calculus and cause protests.
This fragile balancing act can also be shifted by domestic factors, however, such as soaring store prices and rising unemployment.
Recent prison sentences for anti-war statements have reduced the risk of mass protests, but it is likely that Russia will see more intense public discontent in the coming months.
If the military’s performance in Ukraine continues to be as poor as it has been in recent weeks, that frustration could spread to his inner circle.
But setbacks, including Ukraine’s bold incursions into Crimea, could damage his reputation as a strong leader who always gets his way.
Unexplained explosions in territory Moscow seized in 2014 and now claims as its own have spooked both Russian tourists and soldiers stationed there. Further activity behind their front lines would create cracks in Putin’s veneer of control.
Don’t expect a palace coup just yet, but at this rate, the next six months are sure to see more autonomy and discontent within the Kremlin.
“Europe will flounder through this economic pain”
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, World Economy Editor
Two powerful and opposing forces are colliding in global commodity markets.
Vladimir Putin’s war is sending gas prices to the moon, sending an inflationary shock through a supply chain already strained by the pandemic.
At the same time, we’re going into a global recession, or something like that, and recessions kill demand.
China’s anemic recovery has stalled as the biggest housing bubble in world history deflates, and China is setting commodity prices these days.
Europe and the UK are already sinking. The US is still afloat, but has been shot below the waterline. A savage mortgage squeeze has sent US home sales into a tailspin. When the tide turns, you find out who’s swimming naked. Deposit is never pretty.
Central banks are doing what they always do: after sparking an inflationary boom with excessive stimulus, they are frantically tightening, too slowly, too hard, in the teeth of a storm. Money growth is collapsing on both sides of the Atlantic. This will be seen in falling prices next year, no matter what Putin does.
Industrial metals and oil are down a quarter. Wheat prices have almost halved since the first day of Putin’s invasion and have returned to pre-war levels. This may surprise buyers. Shelf values are the inherited result of previous actions. The past is not prologue. We will be in absolute deflation in much of the global goods market by mid-2023.
Putin lost the gas war. Today’s crazy prices are being driven by a global effort to lock in LNG supplies from Qatar, the US and Australia before winter. East Asia and Europe are in a bidding war. Once the panic subsides, gas prices will fall, and perhaps faster than almost anyone imagines today.
German storage is at 80 percent, above seasonal norms and above target. Germany reduced natural gas demand by 14%. The industry is learning to live on much less than that. Europe is a mixed bag, but unless there’s a polar vortex, it’s going to get mixed up this winter.
The world doesn’t need Putin’s gas as much as we all thought, and he assumed. With a pinch in Japan and Korea, a bump in China and India, and three belt folds in Europe, the natural gas market is returning to fundamental balance. Even if he cuts all streams in October to try to…
