The following article is provided by the University of Guelph’s news services.
The discovery of a “highly pathogenic” subtype of avian influenza worldwide and in Canada is worrying, say experts at the University of Guelph.
They are concerned that an uncontrolled spread of the new subtype lays the groundwork for a possible pandemic of human influenza.
Shayan Sharif is an immunologist in the Department of Pathobiology at Ontario College of Veterinary Medicine who specializes in chicken’s immune systems, including their responses to the bird flu virus – also called bird flu. He is also the Deputy Dean for Research and Postgraduate Studies.
As a data scientist at the School of Computer Science at the College of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Rozita Dara studies applied artificial intelligence, data governance, and information privacy with an emphasis on disease modeling and digital agriculture.
Because the flu subtype is currently spreading to both wild and domestic bird populations, there are concerns that the viruses will mutate or exchange genetic material. This is something that researchers have “very little control over” and that could extend the risk, Sharif said.
“Beyond this point, there is no evidence that the subtype is spreading to humans, but if we have a massive circulation of highly pathogenic virus in our herds, the chances of acquiring such ability from the virus will increase significantly,” he said.
“In that case, we could be in another pandemic.”
Previous human flu pandemics have been linked to viruses derived from bird species, he noted.
Although the cause of the current epidemic is uncertain, he argues that climate change may have affected “the habitat of migratory birds and therefore caused new viruses to appear.”
“That’s why the World Health Organization (WHO) and other health or veterinary organizations are monitoring things very closely.”
The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) has implemented strict biosecurity measures for contaminated Canadian farms, their neighbors and their areas.
The full response, however, depends on the scale of the epidemic. If the responses continue to be timely, the impact will be minimal, but if not, then other measures will be taken. Some of the current and future measures will include slaughtering and testing birds and restricting movement between farms, Sharif said.
But there may be a more effective and efficient way to monitor and control outbreaks.
With Sharif and other colleagues, Dara uses social media and open source data, such as the geographical distribution of migratory bird species, to set up a surveillance system for early detection of bird flu.
This tool, Dara said, would not replace existing practices, but would help “make more informed decisions in less time.
“Time plays a key role in managing bird flu. Ad hoc collection, collection and analysis of outbreak data is time consuming and may lead to delays in the implementation of control measures. “Surveillance systems can allow near-real-time access and processing of epidemic data.”
The use of artificial intelligence to analyze historical tweets and previous information about the outbreak of avian influenza allows the prediction of epidemics in an area.
“These systems can help health authorities and emergency responders assess risk and mitigate emergencies more quickly. “They can speed up the reactions as they can bypass the official information channels,” Dara said.
In this way, he added, emergency correspondents can decide on control strategies, such as whether farmers should monitor animal health conditions (through testing) or restrict movement between farms.
“As organizations and individuals make more active use of social media, the desirability of creating real-time surveillance tools and early detection of outbreaks will improve,” he said.
