Sergey Guneev | Sputnik Reuters If his reputation was not bad enough before Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin is now widely regarded as unstable, unreliable and unreliable – and these are the most generous descriptions of a leader who ordered and oversaw violent and destructive to Russia’s smallest neighbor. The invasion prompted Russian analysts and observers to question not only whether Putin had a moral compass, but also his sense of reality, his geopolitical strategy and his power. In particular, many experts question whether the invasion of Ukraine – which had unintended consequences for Russia, leaving it on the brink of economic disaster while uniting most of the international community against it – could have a spectacular boomerang for Putin, leaving him vulnerable to a revolt at home as living standards fall, or a coup led from within by members of the political and business elite. “The solution begins with naming the problem – the problem is a crazy dictator who has essentially detached himself from reality for 20 years in power, and is completely delirious and ready to do whatever he can to destabilize the world order,” Vladimir Milov said. Opposition politician and former deputy energy minister, who now lives in Lithuania, told CNBC on Wednesday. CNBC has requested a response from the Kremlin and is awaiting a response. US President Joe Biden was in the hot water over the weekend for proposing that Putin “can not stay in power” in Russia, with the White House later withdrawing from those comments, saying he did not support regime change. Miloff defended Biden, saying he had only said what everyone thought. “Western leaders have finally named the problem as it is, that Putin remains in power, that’s the key challenge to world peace, prosperity and stability.”
Regime change;
Putin is widely believed to have drawn his power from protecting and enriching a business elite, as well as from persecuting Russia’s political opposition, most notably Alexei Navalny, who was imprisoned by what is widely regarded as fake categories. Putin is also said to be surrounded by “siloviki” or “powerful” former KGB operatives (the predecessor of the FSB, the Russian security service) or members of the military and security services such as the GRU (foreign military service). or the FSO – the Federal Protection Agency, a federal government agency believed to have about 50,000 people responsible for protecting high-ranking government officials, with the top being the president. The FSO includes the Russian Presidential Security Service, which is the president’s personal security detail. The FSO is said to be responsible for the safe passage of the nuclear briefcase – a specially equipped briefcase used to authorize the use of nuclear weapons. When it comes to an internal coup, Miloff said it was important not to “have some rosy hopes for it,” as it would be extremely difficult to overcome the obstacles Putin has created to protect himself from overthrow. “It’s different from the Soviet era when we had a more or less legitimate government body like the Politburo that could have ousted the secretary general. We no longer have that, now he’s just the president in the face of a complete vacuum.” He noted that anyone who was bold enough to try to oust Putin would have to “prove to everyone that he’s obeying his orders”. Second, Miloff said that “everyone is monitored by the security services 24 hours a day” and that any group of officials “even if there is a gathering of two or three people” would be suspected and immediately reported. Miloff noted that while relations between the various military, paramilitary and security structures were very strained, “Putin has his own 50,000-strong security guard, which is not ruled by anyone other than him and which also incorporates communications you can cut it off. ” he said. Melinda Herring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, told CNBC on Wednesday that it was “extremely difficult” to measure mood in Putin’s inner circle and in the upper echelons of the military. “This is a closed political system, Vladimir Putin is very paranoid, very controlled and we do not know what people think – there are things that have happened that surprised us all – there is a shortage of fuel, there is low morale, the Russians are unprepared and not they play their game, but the idea that there will be a coup in the palace and the Russian army will overthrow Putin? “I do not think so, it is very, very unlikely,” he said.
Coup d’etat is unlikely unless …
The overthrow of Putin by members of the security services and / or the military is still highly unlikely, but analysts have noted that it cannot be ruled out that the financial blow from international sanctions will be too much for many Russians. If so, Henry Rome, director of global macroeconomic research at the Eurasia Group, and his team wrote in a note Tuesday, isolation resulting from sanctions “. A possible overthrow of Putin could be predicted in two scenarios, they noted: One, in a situation where the conflict reaches an unstable impasse, with continuous, hard battles but limited change on the ground. In that scenario, Russia would exercise “weak control” over much of southeastern Ukraine and parts of central and northeastern Ukraine, and while negotiations with Ukraine on a peace deal would make some progress, it would not provide a diplomatic solution. and sanctions. would be intensified. In the second scenario, Putin’s position could be increasingly vulnerable if he orders an escalation of the conflict in which Russian forces attack Kyiv and try to exercise broader and stronger control over eastern Ukraine. In this scenario, “sanctions and Western support for the Ukrainian army are escalating [and there are] “This scenario could also see a direct NATO / Russia air battle over the Ukrainian border,” analysts said. In both cases, Putin’s overthrow could happen if Russia’s elites are convinced that “Putin is in danger of disaster for Russia and for them personally.”
Putin’s reputation is “shattered”
Russia is widely believed to have expected an easy victory when it invaded Ukraine. But the conflict, now in its fifth week, was nothing more than with Russian forces facing a quagmire in many parts of the country. Although Russian forces appear ready to occupy the southern port city of Mariupol, which has been under siege for weeks and is heavily defended by Ukrainian fighters, so far Russia has occupied only the city of Kherson and even its power seems weak. There, as elsewhere, Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks to repel Russian troops in a major counterattack that has degraded Russia’s manpower and military capability. There are now expectations that Russia could seek to secure an agreement with Ukraine to save face and be able to claim some sort of victory in its homeland, as the wider occupation of Ukraine and regime change in Kyiv seem impossible goals. . A view shows an armored escort of pro-Russian troops during the Ukraine-Russia conflict on a road leading to the besieged southern port city-Mariupol, Ukraine, March 28, 2022. Alexander Ermochenko | Reuters “Putin’s image as a tactical / strategic genius has collapsed,” Timothy Ash, a senior strategic emerging market analyst at BlueBay Asset Management, said in an email on Tuesday. “On the way to war, the main argument used by the Kremlin to explain why they would not go to war in Ukraine was because they were not so foolish as to do exactly what the Yankees wanted and were drawn into a war in Ukraine, similar with those U.S. salaries in Iraq and Afghanistan. Guess what, Putin was really stupid. “Even more stupid, because even though he knew the danger, he did it.” Ash said the way in which Russia waged this war, launching an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation and indiscriminately bombing cities and political targets, has made Russia and Putin “international outcasts, and probably for a long time to come.” ». “The damage to the reputation was enormous,” he said.
