There is certainly a lot we do not know about what the teams will be like next season, given the uncertainty about the decision plan, the choice for all seniors to use an extra year of fitness and the more than 1,000 players currently on the gate transfers that will land in new homes in the next two months. To simplify this exercise, these rankings assume that any underclassman in the top 30 of Jeremy Woo’s latest big picture in Sports Illustrated goes back to school, unless otherwise stated. In addition, all seniors are expected to continue unless they have announced their return to school. Kentucky’s John Calipari and Sahvir Wheeler. Trevor Ruszkowski / USA TODAY Sports Without further ado, here is our ranking:
1. Arkansas
Eric Musselman is best known for his ability to recruit the transfer gate, but the Hogs bring in an elite freshman class that should complement a talented returning nucleus. Headliner: combo guard Nick Smith Jr., who could be in the mix for the No. 1 pick in the NBA 2023 draft. Smith, point guard Anthony Black and athletic striker Jordan Walsh are the main prizes in this the loaded category and bring to the table the level of the elite. A huge draft decision to watch is that of star center Jaylin Williams, who flourished in one of the SEC’s best big pieces. It is considered to be returning for the purposes of this ranking, but its share is almost certain to rise. If Williams returns as expected, this is the best team in the country.
2. Kentucky
Perhaps the biggest looming draft decision that could realistically go in any direction is in Lexington, where Oscar Tshiebwe has to decide whether to return after a record season with the Wildcats. As good as Tshiebwe is, his skills for NBA purposes are rather limited, and in the age of name, image and resemblance, he will have huge opportunities to make money if he stays in Kentucky. Add him next to a senior point guard in the Sahvir Wheeler and an elite recruiting class that may even include 2022 draft candidate Shaedon Sharpe, and Kentucky looks loaded for ’22 -23.
3. Houston
Houston’s move to the Elite Eight despite the in-season defeats of Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark is perhaps the most impressive coaching job in Kelvin Sampson’s career. Now, the Cougars will have to take back Sasser (the team’s best player) and Mark, along with emerging point guard Jamal Shead, to form one of the most impressive backcourts in the sport. And while the UH program is not built on elite recruits, the Cougars add a five-star front-end perspective to Jarace Walker, who has elite natural tools and could dominate the glass for Sampson’s club.
4. Kansas
Seeing that the Jayhawks have finished worse than No. 20 at KenPom only once since 2000, Bill Self’s team ranking here seems like a solid bet. It will be a new show in Kansas with Ochai Agbaji, Remy Martin and David McCormack graduating, especially if Christian Braun chooses to become a professional this spring. But Self signed the best recruiting class in a long time in ’22 with three five stars and four prospects for the top-50, something that should elevate the defending national champions to claim the Big 12 again.
5. Gonzaga
Will the Zags get Drew Timme back for his senior season? This is the offseason question for Mark Few & Co., who once again failed to win a national title. If Timme returns (as this article assumes), the Bulldogs will have to be among the contenders to cut the nets next season. Rising sophomores Nolan Hickman and Hunter Sallis could be in their sophomore year and wing Julian Strawther should have a great youth season. Plus, Few and the Zags are always capable of adding a great carry or two every spring.
6. Duke
Jon Scheyer will start his career as a coach with one of the most talented rosters in the sport, having signed three of the top six players in the 2022 category, according to SI99. This will mitigate the blow of the possible loss of five key players in the NBA Draft, with only point guard Jeremy Roots appearing as a return for the purposes of this ranking. But Roots could be one of the nation’s best point guards in ’22-23, giving the ball to players like “do it-all” wing Dariq Whitehead and talented forwards Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively. There may be some growing pains with a coach for the first time, but do not expect a big departure.
7. Creighton
The Bluejays clearly succeeded in a year of reconstruction in 2021–22, winning 12 Big East games and advancing to the second round of the NCAA Tournament, although they had four freshmen and a sophomore in the regular rotation of the team. First-year point guard Ryan Nembhard played calmly beyond his years before a season-ending wrist injury, while second-year senior Ryan Kalkbrenner erupted in a force on the rim at both ends. In addition, the future is extremely bright for the young Arthur Calluma and Trey Alexander, who each had huge games in the Big Dance. This group is far from having some transfer additions from having unlimited possibilities next season.
8. North Carolina
Hubert Davis’s first season on the sidelines had its ups and downs, but the Tar Heels’ success in the NCAA Tournament makes it, overall, an overwhelming success. A professional decision is apparent for Armando Bacot, who will probably not be drafted but has accomplished almost everything at college level and may want to play for a living. Even if Bacot leaves, the back-to-back duo of RJ Davis and Caleb Love came at the end of the season and would give Davis two elite building blocks for Year 2 as head coach.
9. Arizona
Year 1 under Tommy Lloyd certainly inspired a lot of confidence in the future of the Wildcats program. There will be a renewal in the roster this off-season – we look forward to the departure of Bennedict Mathurin in these rankings, but frontcourt stars Christian Koloko and Azuolas Tubelis could also turn to the pros. But with a backcourt returning with titles from Dalen Terry and Kerr Kriisa and the return of one or both of Koloko and Tubelis, this team will be in the mix to win the Pac-12 again.
10. Baylor
Scott Drew and the Bears have become key pillars in rankings like these and should be for the foreseeable future. Baylor is adding to this mix for next season five-year-old Keyonte George, a dynamic scorer who will combine well with LJ Cryer and Adam Flagler (who could also pursue professional selections) for one of the most impressive backcourts in the sport. If Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is healthy after a devastating knee injury in February, this team will be one of the most complete rosters (at least on paper) in the country next season.
11. UCLA
Like last off-season, we could wait a bit for clarity about Johnny Juzang’s plans. But for these rankings, we work on the assumption that Juzang will return while Jaime Jaquez Jr. will become a professional. A duo of Juzang / Tyger Campbell rear field veterans combined with some talented first-year guards at Amari Bailey and Dylan Andrews would be one of the best guard collections in the country. The front yard will rely heavily on five-year-old first-year student Adem Bona, a hardcore athlete with big shoes to fill for Cody Riley and Myles Johnson. And while Jaquez is a big loss, Jaylen Clark could be effective in a similar Swiss Army Knife role for Mick Cronin’s club. Scroll to continue
12. Alabama
Things have never been enough clicks for a talented Crimson Tide team in 2021–22, but Nate Oats’s team will be back in the mix this season. Expect more roster turnover than the rule work of this article — I’ll be very surprised if all three Jahvon Quinerly, JD Davison and Jaden Shackelford are back next season. But the addition of a pair of elite freshmen to Jaden Bradley and Brandon Miller, along with new returnees such as Charles Bediako and Darius Miles, give this team the opportunity to have a special season. Cockburn’s decision to stay or leave will be one of the biggest of the season. Charles LeClaire / USA TODAY Sports
13. Illinois
Brad Underwood’s team is one of the most difficult for 2022-23, as things stand at the moment, given the uncertainty in this roster. The primary question is whether Kofi Cockburn will return for his senior season. The dominant center had an extremely productive season, but did little to change his stake in the NBA and is currently not one of SI’s top-80 prospects. For the purposes of this ranking, he has a pencil to return. If Cockburn returns, Underwood can surround him with talented young players such as R. Jay Melendez, Luke Good, Coleman Hawkins and the impressive freshmen Jayden Epps and Ty Rodgers. But expect a lot of roster changes here from now until the summer.
14. Tennessee
Despite leaving the NCAA early, it was a great 2021–22 season for Rick Barnes and Tennessee, winning the SEC and bringing together a legitimate top-10 team that would have to bring back a number of key pieces. A core that includes Zakai Zeigler, Josiah-Jordan James and Santiago Vescovi is a great place to start, especially after Zeigler took to the stage as a freshman. There are a few more questions ahead, but there is no doubt about talent like Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Jonas Aidoo, while Uros Plavsic provides more of an “imposing” look at the center of Barnes and the Vols.
15. Michigan
It was a heterogeneous 2021–22 season for Michigan, at least, but the Wolverines ended it with a trip to a Sweet 16. The big question on which this ranking is based is the return of Hunter Dickinson. Dickinson is unlikely to be drafted if he becomes a professional now, but his stock may not …
