A recent React-1 study from Imperial College London found that while infections seemed to slow down or decrease in most younger age groups in England, they increased in people over the age of 55, with no clear indication of when they would peak. According to their latest figures, the average prevalence of Covid-19 across the UK was 6.4%, based on the smears collected between March 9 and 31 from a random sample of almost 100,000 people. “This is by far the highest we have seen since then [the study began] in May 2020, “said Professor Paul Elliott, who led the study. The South West had the highest infection rate at 8.13%, and the West Midlands the lowest at 5.28%, with significant increases in infections observed in all English areas except London. Among those aged 55 and over, the estimated prevalence on March 31 was 8.31%. “This is about 20 times higher than the average for this team throughout the period from May 2020 to March 2022, so these are absolutely unprecedented levels,” Eliot said. “Obviously there is the vaccination program, which was extremely important for protecting us as a population, but if you see more infections, you would generally expect to see more serious results. [such as hospitalisations and deaths]”, Added Professor Christl Donnelly at Imperial College London, who also participated in the study. “We do not yet know when we will see a peak in the age group over 55 and because these people are at higher risk of serious outcome, this is a particular concern.” The team also identified eight cases of “recombinant” forms of coronavirus that can occur when a person becomes infected with two variants at the same time, including five of the XE variant, a combination of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2. Separate data show that this is spreading about 10% faster than BA.2 in the UK, with 637 cases detected on March 22nd. The figures came as the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that Covid-related deaths in the UK have skyrocketed since mid-February. There were 780 deaths where Covid-19 was reported on the death certificate in the seven days leading up to March 25 – a 14% increase over the previous week. This increase follows several weeks where the deaths appeared to have leveled off. Coronavirus infections have been on the rise across the UK since early March, due to the Omicron variant BA.2. The prevalence of the virus is currently at a record high, with ONS figures suggesting that approximately 4.9 million people had Covid by the week of March 26th. This increase may now have an impact on the number of deaths, which usually lag behind infections by several weeks. The death toll is the highest since February 18, when 863 deaths were recorded – although it is still lower than at the peak of the first Omicron wave, when 1,484 deaths were recorded in England and Wales during the week ending January 21. It is also well below the 8,433 deaths recorded at the peak of the second wave of the corona virus in the week ending January 29, 2021. A total of 190,053 deaths have now occurred in the United Kingdom where Covid-19 was reported on the death certificate, according to the ONS. The number of people being treated for coronavirus in the UK is close to the total that had reached the beginning of this year, but is still much lower than the levels recorded in early 2021. This relatively low number of deaths and illnesses largely reflects the success of the vaccination program – in particular the release of booster doses at the end of 2021. A fourth “booster” dose of the vaccine is available to people aged 75 and over, home care and 12 years of age and older with a weakened immune system. Wednesday’s React-1 figures are the latest to be released by the study team, as the government has now cut funding for the project. Throughout the pandemic, it has played a key role in monitoring the spread of Covid-19 infections in the community, in parallel with the ongoing ONS study. Eliot said he was “extremely proud” of what the study had achieved, providing “very quick real-time information that we tried to report very quickly to the public, the press and the government.” “There will be a small loss. But I’m very optimistic that with it [ONS study] “We will continue to be ahead of other countries in terms of population surveillance.”
