While the number of cases is expected to rise, Canada’s head of public health said the national response to this kind of increase in disease activity would be different now than in the past. “We are now in a transitional period and we expect that progress will not be linear and that there will likely be more shocks along the way, including a resurgence of cases this spring,” said Dr Theresa Tam. “However, with higher levels of population immunity, proven protective practices to slow the spread and reduced stress on the health system, we are in a stronger position to return to more of the things we love, while continuing to keep each other safer. “ The rising number of cases was not unexpected, Tam said, as the federal government and counties and counties have lifted restrictions on COVID-19 and are moving forward with a lighter touch on public health measures to curb new infections. Tam said Friday that the number of COVID-related illnesses and deaths is low, thanks to strong vaccine coverage and natural immunity to past infections.
“The activity of the disease remains increased”: Tam
Since January, the number of people in hospitals with the new coronavirus has halved to about 5,000 nationwide each day. The number of daily deaths reported is also about half of what it was just two months ago with far fewer than 50 deaths reported nationwide each day.
That could change in the coming weeks, Tam said, because there has been an increase in the number of cases due to BA.2, an offshoot of Omicron.
Novavax Coronavirus Vaccine Vial Pictured in London, UK Shipments of the protein-based vaccine began arriving in Canada this week. (Alastair Grant / AP Photo)
Presenting the modeling data, Tam said that “disease activity remains high and is increasing in some parts of the country” and “hospitalization trends could increase” as a result.
WATCH: Tam discusses reasons for COVID-19 resurgence in parts of Canada
Tam discusses the reasons for the resurgence of COVID-19 in parts of Canada
Canada’s Director of Public Health Theresa Tam says that whenever public health measures are relaxed, a resurgence of COVID-19 cases can be expected. Tam says she encourages people to keep wearing masks to keep the pandemic under control. 1:45
Early research shows that BA.2 is five to seven times more contagious than the original COVID-19 strain first detected in Wuhan, China, or about twice as contagious as the Delta variant, which first appeared in late 2020. and in early 2021.
While BA.2 will lead to more serious incidents reported, Tam said the impact on the healthcare system is expected to be more “manageable” than with previous waves.
Tam said that moving forward, the possible scenario is that Canada will face “low to moderate continuous transmission of the virus” with “intermittent” waves driven by new variants and reduced immunity – a more “predictable” pattern that could possibly to be addressed without restrictive public health measures.
Design for various scenarios
However, the Public Health Service of Canada (PHAC) is also preparing for a “worst case scenario” in which a new, much more vaccine-resistant variant is emerging that is causing widespread serious illness. Such a scenario would require a return to more restrictions and enhanced “personal protection practices”. With COVID-19 testing capability severely limited in most areas, the federal government is relying on other measurements to determine the trajectory of the virus. PHAC has a number of locations across the country where it monitors wastewater to determine transmission trends. The results so far give a mixed picture. In Ottawa, for example, sewage measurements indicate that virus activity has never been higher. But in locations in Saskatchewan, the signals are diminishing. Tam said all Canadians, no matter where they live, should get their booster vaccines or – if they can still stand – the main COVID-19 vaccine series. Even if someone had an infection, they should get the third vaccine three months after the onset of symptoms, Tam said, because the booster dose offers much more “substantial” protection against Omicron, including BA.2. “There are some gaps in our support coverage,” Tam said. According to PHAC data, only 57 percent of people over the age of 18 have received a third dose – 30 percentage points lower than the proportion of the population that has received two doses. “Any adult over the age of 18, when eligible, goes to get the souvenir now. Get the souvenir,” he said. “Updating COVID-19 vaccines is one of the best ways to protect ourselves and collectively reduce the impact of future waves.” For those who are hesitant to get an mRNA vaccine like the one offered by Pfizer or Moderna, Tam said, there is Novavax, a protein-based vaccine that will soon be available in Canada. On Thursday, the federal government began receiving some of the 3.2 million installments it has ordered from the Maryland-based company, and distribution to the counties and counties is now under way. Hospital numbers reveal how prone unvaccinated people are to serious outcomes. Fully vaccinated people with a booster dose were ten times less likely to be hospitalized than non-vaccinated people. People who were vaccinated with just two doses were also less likely to need medical attention – their hospitalization rate was four times lower than the rate of those not vaccinated between mid-February and mid-March, according to PHAC data.
