“Since March 31, the daily average number of cases has risen by 28 percent nationwide, indicating that a resurgence is under way,” Tam said on Friday, presenting the latest national pandemic forecasts.
The modeling shows that, to the extent that they can be measured, given the current level of testing and reporting, cases and serious outcomes have been significantly reduced since the peak of the Omicron wave.
However, the activity of the disease “remains increased and is increasing in some parts of the country”.
Tam warns that hospitalization trends could increase in the coming weeks, given the recent rise in new cases.
The most contagious variant of BA.2 – which is predominant in some jurisdictions – as well as the declining immunity as well as the increase in personal activities seem to be related to the current rise.
As COVID-19 restrictions continue to loosen across Canada, now more than two years after the pandemic, Tam said the country is in a “transitional period”.
As part of this, the Public Health Service of Canada predicts that the path out of the pandemic “will not be linear”.
“COVID-19 is expected to be with us in the near future and we will have to wait for intermittent waves,” states the latest PHAC modeling documentation.
The current “realistic scenario” predicts that in the long run the virus will continue to spread at a “low to moderate level” and future variants will appear and potentially affect the number of cases and the serious consequences.
Overall, however, the federal health service says the situation “is expected to be manageable for health systems without the need for restrictive public health measures.”
However, PHAC advises that public health agencies continue to monitor and prepare in the event of a variation that is “immune avoidance”. They consider this to be the “worst case scenario”.
To boost the drive to return to normalcy, the government continues to encourage the use of masks and recommends those who have not yet received a COVID-19 booster dose do so.
More to follow…
