When the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey just 19 days ago, the atmosphere was toxic – and neither side outperformed the restoration of existing positions. Today, at a meeting in Istanbul between Russian and Ukrainian teams, the atmosphere was much more positive and the outlines, no matter how dim, of a comprehensive settlement of this horrific catastrophic war, began to come to the fore. They included the future of Crimea and the Donbas region, Ukraine’s neutral regime protected by security guarantees, a significant withdrawal of Russian forces currently north of Kiev, and even the prospect of a meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr. The Ukrainian side agreed to kick the long grass the Crimean regime, which Russia annexed in 2014. Mykhailo Podolyak, Zelensky’s adviser, spoke about the future of Crimea, the annexation of which was never accepted by either Ukraine or other Western countries. for the status of these areas. “We discussed separately that during the 15 years, as long as the bilateral talks take place, there will be no military hostilities,” he told reporters. This would remove one of the most controversial issues on the table at this time. Both sides seemed to be in a constructive mood. Podolyak said Russian negotiators had “signed the treaty outlining ways to end the war and will work out their counter-proposals.” The Russian news agency TASS quoted the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, as saying that the talks were constructive. “Russia is taking two steps towards Ukraine to de-escalate,” he said. The most immediate of these is the Russian statement that hostilities against Chernihiv and the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, will be drastically reduced. Chernihiv, in northern Ukraine, has been surrounded by Russian forces and has been devastated for the past three weeks. Equally important, Medinsky said the Ukrainian proposals were now sufficiently worded to “be presented to the President. And we will be given the appropriate answer. “ “Provided the agreement is worked out quickly and a compromise is reached, the opportunity for peace will come closer,” said Medinsky – the most optimistic assessment by a Russian official since the first round of talks in late February. Russian officials have previously downplayed any involvement in the Putin process, saying more needs to be negotiated before the Russian leader can sit down in person for direct talks. Now, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti – citing the Russian delegation – spoke of the possibility of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky at the same time as the initialing of the peace treaty by the Foreign Ministers of both countries. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoλουlu, who mediated the talks, outlined a possible roadmap, with “the highest priority being to reach a ceasefire as soon as possible to pave the way for a lasting political solution”. These “more difficult” issues will be left to the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine to “make the final adjustments to the common approach.” And then a meeting between Putin and Zelensky would be on the agenda, he told reporters after the talks. An outline emerges: For Ukraine, security guarantees have always been a crucial part of any conflict resolution. Gradually, President Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials moved away from Ukraine’s earlier insistence that it had the right — even the obligation — to apply for NATO membership, as enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution. Now a very different wording appears. A member of the Ukrainian team, David Arahamia, said after the meeting on Ukrainian television: “We insist on it being an international treaty, signing all the guarantors of security, which will be ratified.” This treaty will have to be ratified by parliaments in the guarantor countries, according to Ukrainian officials, who are apparently incorporating as much insurance as possible into the mechanism. The Ukrainians also want the guarantors to include permanent members of the UN Security Council, including Russia. The guarantees would be very specific, Arahamia said. In the event of an attack or military operation against Ukraine, “consultations should take place within three days.” “After that, the guarantor countries are obliged to help us. And military aid, and armed forces, and weapons, and closed skies – everything we need so much now and we can not get.” Ukrainians are now considering what could be called protected – and permanent – neutrality. Read more here.
