There have been no negotiations between the two sides since evidence emerged of the massacres in Bucha, Irpin and elsewhere in Russian-held territory north of Kiev. But movement on the front lines has been minimal since the fall of Lysychansk in late June. Both sides are struggling for momentum and are looking increasingly battle-worn.
2. Ukraine has no means of effective conventional counterattack, while guerrilla raids are an optimistic way to hasten a Russian collapse
Ukraine would like to retake Kherson, west of the Dnieper River, but a senior administration official admitted privately that “we don’t have enough capability to push them back.” Kyiv has shifted its strategy to long-range missile attacks and daring special forces raids on Russian bases deep behind the front lines. Key presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said the aim was to “create chaos within the Russian forces”, but while this would blunt the effectiveness of the invader, it was unlikely to lead to the invaders collapsing on their own and voluntarily ceding Kherson, as some had The officials were hoping for Ukrainians. Russian soldiers patrol an area of the Azovstal Metallurgical Complex, in Mariupol, in the Russian-controlled region of Donetsk. Photo: AP
3. Russia still wants to push its way forward, but its focus is likely to shift to holding on to its gains and annexing Ukrainian territory
Russia has no new offensive plan other than massive artillery, destroying towns and advancing. It does this partly because it is effective and partly to minimize casualties, having lost – by some Western estimates – 15,000 dead so far. He continues to adopt this strategy around Bakhmut in the Donbas, but progress is slow, partly because he has had to redeploy some forces to reinforce Kherson. The Kremlin may not have achieved what it had hoped for at the start of the war, but Russia now holds large swaths of Ukrainian territory in the east and south and is actively talking about holding annexation referendums. With colder weather fast approaching, he’s likely to focus on consolidating what he’s got.
4. Winter will precipitate a new refugee crisis and create an opportunity for those who can better prepare
Winter is prime for strategic thinking for both sides. Ukraine is already concerned about humanitarian issues because natural gas heating is not available for apartment buildings in Donetsk Oblast and other frontline areas. A humanitarian official predicted there would be a new wave of migration this winter, with perhaps as many as 2 million people crossing the border into Poland. Russians see winter as an opportunity. Ukraine fears Russia will target its energy grid, making the heating dilemma more acute, and could simply shut down the massive Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Moscow also wants to prolong the West’s pain over energy costs and has every incentive to increase the pressure. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Spring, however, could be the time for a fresh attack – each side will want to refresh and prepare for what is likely to be another season. Nila Zelinska holds a doll belonging to her granddaughter in front of her damaged home in Potashnya, outside Kyiv, Ukraine, in May. Photo: Natacha Pisarenko/AP
5. The West must decide whether it wants Ukraine to win or simply hold – and it must combine humanitarian aid with the dire need
Ukraine would have been defeated without Western military aid. But at no point so far has the West supplied enough artillery or other weapons, such as fighter jets, to allow Kyiv to repel the invaders. Politicians talk about the need to force Russia to pre-war borders, but do not provide enough material to do so. At the same time, Ukraine’s humanitarian need is growing. There is, for example, not enough money to rebuild – and many houses north-east and north-west of Kiev remain in ruins five months after the Russians left, often with desperate residents living in garages or makeshift structures on site. Internally displaced people often have to live in schools or kindergartens, temporary accommodation that people struggle to stay in for long periods of time. Ukraine has a budget gap of $5bn (£4.2bn) a month because of the war. aid and reconstruction will cost many times more.
