2021 was a strong year for cinema, despite the theatrical performances and the multiple COVID-19 waves. As always, clear and not so clear favorites have emerged in the run-up to the Oscars. If nothing else, the 2022 Oscars might have been worth it just to see Anthony Hopkins take the stage to share the First Actress trophy. He was in his hometown of Wales when he made a fuss about The father last year – yes, it was a whole year ago – and he is going to applaud standing up or three on Sunday night. Which means it’s about to be the most delusional time of the year, as well. The following is a summary of all the major prize categories, with my predictions of who will win and who will actually win: International Feature FilmNominees: Drive My Car (Japan), Flee (Denmark), The Hand Of God (Italy), Lunana: A Yak In The Classroom (Bhutan), The Worst Person in the World (Norway) Notes: Difficult class, although it’s a little disappointing to see Pedro Almodovar Parallel Mothersof Asghar Farhadi A heroand Julia Ducournou Titanium snubbed. Will Win: Drive My CarRyusuke Hamaguchi’s three-hour street film is the favorite to take back Japan’s first Oscar since Departures in 2008. It’s unlikely, mainly because it’s also Japan’s first Best Picture nomination – the mother of all categories – which means that this is already the strongest international film on the list. Must win: The worst man in the worldI’m a little biased here, mainly because Joachim Trier’s millennial masterpiece is aimed at the younger generations of urban life. But I think the film reveals all the intricacies of being young and old at the same time, without compromise or satire. It may not be a better “cinema” than Drive My Car, but it is an equally exciting film production. Sometimes lending gravitas to what is considered a light genre is the most difficult task in modern storytelling. Even from the worst man in the world Documentary (Feature)Nominations: Ascension, Attica, Flee, Summer of Soul (… Or, When The Revolution Could Be Televised), Writing with FireNotes: As usual, much of the non-fiction narrative list comes from the Sundance Film Festival. And as usual, this is one of the strongest categories there is – it says so much about the world we live in as it does about art. Writing with Fire is India’s first documentary nomination, but certainly not its last. I’m waiting for Shaunak Sen’s Sundance winner Everything that breathes to go until the end of time. Will win: GoJonas Poher Rasmussen’s documentary is the first ever to be nominated in three separate categories (Feature Documentary, International Feature Film, Feature Animation), which in itself is the answer to his chances at the Oscars. Make no mistake, the “documentary” is its main identity. Must win: GoThe animated story of a gay Afghan refugee is what one would expect from an artist wedding and state-of-the-art technology. It is true, pure, passionate and almost perfect in merging media and worlds. Sushmit Ghosh and Rintu Thomas’ Writing with Fire – though an amazing documentary in itself – is at best the dark horse back Summer of Soul. Even from Flee Writing (Adapted script)Candidates: CODA, Drive My Car, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the DogNotes: CODA won this category at the recent BAFTA Awards, The Power of the Dog won in the selection of critics and The lost daughter won the Indie Spirit Awards. This is not an open and closed case. Will Win: The Power of the Dog Jane Campion’s noir western is based on Thomas Savage’s 1967 novel of the same name. A screenplay victory early in the evening could only confirm her status as a storyteller, especially since the film itself feels like literature is coming to life on screen.Should Win: The Lost DaughterMaggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut – which is based on a novel by Elena Ferrante – can hardly be filmed, with the Greek island becoming almost a screenplay for Olivia Colman’s unnatural mother. The narrative-edifice is deceptively clever, with transitions and flashbacks woven into a story that transforms into emotion. In an ideal universe, this film would have been free of the “first director”‘s denunciations and would have been recognized for the incredible art of adaptation he plays. Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter Writing (Original script)Nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Worst Person in the World recent years. Ambition equals victory here, with the boldest and most innovative “social” titles – Parasite, Promising Young Woman, Get Out – often end up as favorites. Will win: Licorice pizzaThis is the third screenplay nomination for Paul Thomas Anderson since Boogie Nights and There will be bloodand ironically, it’s his The Past – where a renowned director finally wins this elusive Oscar for his less accomplished work. This does not mean Pizza with licorice is it a smaller movie? is wonderfully realized, written in fluids and the warmest ray of the sun in a notoriously complex director’s filmography. But nostalgia and heritage are seductive beasts. Must win: BelfastDo not look up is inventive and would usually be the first if not for its giant parody vibes while King Richard is very simple and straightforward (though still very effective), and maybe The worst man in the world considered too “European”, whatever that means. But Kenneth Branagh’s dynamic personal ode to the turbulent history of Northern Ireland – especially in these times of near-war and fascist hostility – is the right (or “left”) film in the right place at the right time. Also from Licorice Pizza Actor in a supporting role Nominees: Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Judi Dench (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) Notes: One of the clearest categories This year. Will win: Ariana DeBoseAriana DeBose has won almost every award before the Oscars, and there’s a good reason for that. Steven Spielberg’s dazzling musical may not be the protagonist in most other categories, but DeBose’s beautifully lively performance – which is also impulsive on Broadway – is the shining light in a campaign that otherwise seems to have been derailed by serious MeToo’s allegations against cast member Ansel Elgort.Must win: Ariana DeBoseI feel like Kirsten Dunst, whose best performance in her career in the seductive portrait of Jane Campion’s manhood is only good for a first Oscar nomination in a 25-year career. Jessie Buckley was just as amazing as a younger Olivia Colman The lost daughter, although you can lock it for many awards in the future. However, it was Ariana DeBose all the way. Sorry to sound like a 90s Bollywood director – but he can sing, dance, and pretend. Ariana Debose receives the Best Actress Award for her role in West Side Story at the 75th British Academy Film Awards. The Associated Press Actor in a supporting roleNominees: Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) Notes: This is the feeling- good class of the season. I will overlook the fact that Ben Affleck has been overlooked for his tender turn The Tender Bar. Will win: Troy KotsurOnly the second deaf actor to be nominated in Oscar history, Troy Kotsour deservedly leads the team to a very competitive set of nominations. There is a specific father-daughter moment at CODA that has written Oscars everywhere – and Kotsour has been quite a story ever since. Somewhere, I hope, a documentary is being made about his trip to the awards season. Must win: Troy Kotsour Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee have every opportunity to upset them CODA applecart, but only because of value, was not the most significant – if not satisfactory – supportive shift throughout 2021. Troy Kotsur at CODA Actor in a leading role Nominees: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer) Notes: A big miss in this star full category was Renate Reinsve for The worst man in the world. In fact, hers was arguably the best of the losers. Will win: Jessica ChastainHot off a Critics Award, Chastain’s performance with an Oscar is for some reason the favorite in a category where it is probably the fifth best. The film is the kind of medium biographical film based on star turns and solid makeup, which means that voters can be affected by a striking piece of glass in a train wreck. Must win: Olivia Coleman In a fair world, Olivia Colman could have won her second Academy Award for Best Actress in four years. But it does make acting seem so easy that sometimes it’s hard to tell how good it is. Hers was perhaps the least “likeable” character in the batch with Penelope Cruz – both of whom play imperfect mothers in brave films about flawed women. Kristen Stewart’s performance is a showy but clever performance as Princess Diana, and although we know the Academy’s weakness for the British monarchy, it would never be enough in a feverish dream of a movie. And if Chastain somehow does not win, it will be Nicole Kidman. Olivia Coleman in …