Under normal circumstances, such competitions would be nationally focused cases driven by domestic actors such as the economy, immigration and pandemic response. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed all that. Suddenly, French elections were held over who could best lead the country into Europe’s first major war in decades. In Hungary, an election that would determine the country’s path to further totalitarianism or liberal democracy was overshadowed by discussions of war and peace and the East versus the West. The war in Ukraine has completely overturned European policy: Germany is abandoning the taboos on defense spending, Finland and Sweden are reconsidering their stance on Russia and NATO, and Poland is turning from an outsider into a partner in Brussels. The two forthcoming elections provide further indications of how the people of the continent – already affected by rising energy prices and the millions of refugees fleeing Ukraine – are responding to a war that seems unlikely to end any time soon. The most immediate result will be seen in Hungary, which is going to the polls today. For months, this election was largely framed as a referendum on Orban, the biggest challenge to his rule in more than a decade. Unlike in previous elections, when he faced a largely divided opposition, this time Orban is fighting a coalition of six parties that have come together with the explicit goal of overthrowing him. According to the opposition, these were elections to save the Hungarian Republic from Orban’s authoritarian impulses. For Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party, the issue was to keep Hungary as a defender of traditional values and to prevent interference from the so-called international left. When Russia invaded Ukraine, launching a continental crisis and sending millions of Ukrainian refugees to neighboring countries, including Hungary, both Orbán and his opponents had to quickly adjust their messages. “The war in Ukraine completely changed the election campaign,” András Bíró-Nagy, director of the think tank Policy Solutions in Budapest, told me. The opposition took advantage of Orban’s role as Vladimir Putin’s last friend in Europe. The Prime Minister tried to find a balance between supporting the European consensus on Ukraine and not burning bridges with Moscow. As a result, Hungarian voters are now faced with “two competing narratives,” Bíró-Nagy said. While the opposition is trying to characterize the elections as a choice between Hungary’s alignment with Russia and its alignment with NATO and the West, “Orban is desperately trying to redefine the facts surrounding the need for peace and security of the Hungarian people in so turbulent times. “The prime minister has ruled out the possibility of supplying arms to Ukraine or letting weapons destined for Ukraine pass through Hungary, unlike many of his European partners. He has also rejected calls for an embargo on Russian energy supplies, citing a possible impact on Hungarian families. These positions have made Orban a bit like a pariah in Europe and have isolated Hungary from its traditional allies in Poland and the Czech Republic, whose defense ministers refused to attend a meeting with their Hungarian counterpart last week over its stance. Budapest for Ukraine. Orban’s careful balancing act even won the immediate condemnation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who challenged Orban to “decide who you are with.” (The Hungarian government subsequently accused the Ukrainian government of seeking to influence the election.) Read: The legacy of the emperor But when it comes to elections, Orban’s strategy can work. Fidesz maintains a slight lead over the opposition, according to recent opinion polls. The fact that Hungary’s electoral system has already been abolished in favor of Fidesz (not to mention Orbán’s disproportionate control over the country’s media and state funds) makes the prospect of a coup unlikely. And because of the uncertainty surrounding the war, “people will choose the devil they know,” István Kiss, executive director of the conservative Danube Institute in Budapest and a former Fidesz consultant, told me. Ukraine dominates the election narrative in France in a similar way, although you would not necessarily know it from your presence there. Although the first round of the competition is just a week away, “I feel that there is no presidential campaign in France at the moment,” Georgina Wright, director of Europe at the Montaigne Institute in Paris, told me. As in Hungary, “Ukraine completely overshadowed the elections.” Although French voters rarely go to the polls with foreign policy in mind, the war has managed to reverse this trend, at least in part because France has played a leading role in the West’s diplomatic dispute with Russia. Not only did Macron travel to Moscow in the weeks before the war, in a last (and ultimately fruitless) attempt to prevent a Russian invasion, but he has since received dozens of phone calls from both Putin and Zelensky seeking a diplomatic analysis. Due to Russia’s role as a major continental gas supplier, the war will have a huge impact on European economies. “The French are looking at who can lead them to this crisis,” Wright said, “and there is a sense that Macron is probably the only person who can do that.” It helps that Macron is perhaps the only viable candidate who has not been well-liked by the Kremlin or its discussion points. Marin Le Pen, the far-right leader who has reiterated her role as Macron’s main rival, has made no secret of her kinship with Putin or his investments in previous campaigns. Despite her condemnation of the invasion, a photo of Le Pen with Putin still appears in her campaign leaflets. Rising far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has long backed France’s withdrawal from NATO, has been forced to back down on comments downplaying the threat posed by Moscow. However, opinion polls suggest Macron will have less of a chance of winning a rematch with Le Pen in the second round of 2017, indicating how the French president’s appeal has been exhausted after five years in power. Just as the war in Ukraine affected these elections, their outcome will always have an impact on Ukraine — specifically how Europe responds to the crisis there, whether it maintains the status quo or changes its policy. Macron’s victory would represent a victory for those who have advocated a stronger Europe, a position he has been largely justified by the Russian invasion. And if Orbán retains power, as is likely, it will signal further challenges to the European consensus on Russia, especially when it comes to reducing the continent’s dependence on Russian oil and gas.
