The Middle Eastern country, already mired in the economic crisis and the battle against inflation before the war broke out in Ukraine, is now struggling with even higher price increases for wheat and cooking oil. “In 2021, when prices were already up, I was using the same oil to cook a lot of dishes,” Mona Amsha, from Beirut, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation this week. “Now, I can not even do that.” Fears of wheat imports – more than 60% of which came from Ukraine last year – are particularly strong because Lebanon ‘s reserves are limited. The huge explosion that struck the port of Beirut in August 2020 and killed more than 200 people also destroyed the main grain silos. As a result, the country is believed to have enough wheat to last only about six weeks. The government has said it is trying to secure new imports from India, the US and Kazakhstan – all of which would mean the grain would travel much longer distances on increasingly expensive shipping routes. Meanwhile, according to Agriculture Minister Abbas Hajj Hassan: “There is no wheat crisis in Lebanon today.” However, shortages have already begun to appear on supermarket shelves. Some bakeries are making portions of bread, and price increases since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are evident, says Bujar Hoxha, director of Care International. “From February 24 to March 21 we have seen a general 14% increase in food prices,” he says. “For bread, for example, it is 27%. For white sugar it is 72%. For sunflower oil it is 83%. Fears about the cost of fuel, which is essential for electricity and water, are also growing. Few sections of society are more vulnerable to these changes than Lebanon’s 1.5 million Syrian refugees, most of whom live in miserable poverty and depend on food aid. Many escaped the Russian bombing of their homeland and are now preparing to feel the devastating effects of another war waged by Vladimir Putin. “When we think of poverty, I always try to use sea level,” says Hoxha. “If there are Lebanese living below the poverty line, we must always imagine that the Syrian refugees are minus 20 sea level at that poverty line.” The decision of some countries to ban exports has exacerbated the problem. Last week, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati called on Algeria to exempt it from the sugar export ban imposed in mid-March. Hoxha says Care tried to buy vegetable oil from Turkey, but failed. The coming months, then, could be challenging and hopes for the holy month are clearly low. “This will be one of the most difficult Ramadan that Lebanon has faced,” said Hoxha. “It simply came to our notice then. We thought about it a year ago. “But that will be very difficult.” Somali families displaced after fleeing Lower Shabelle after a rise in US airstrikes rest in an IDP camp near Mogadishu, Somalia, March 12, 2020. Photo: Feisal Omar / Reuters
Somalia
The worst drought in four decades. Hunger is so widespread that hunger could develop within months. a resurgence of violence by jihadist terrorists seeking to overthrow the fragile government: even before Russian tanks entered Ukraine on February 24, Somalia had more than enough on its plate. Now, with the invasion paralyzing the world’s bread basket, the East African country faces another challenge: boosting commodity prices. “A week ago, a 20-liter container of cooking oil was $ 25, today it is about $ 50. [£38]. “A liter of gasoline was $ 0.64 and today it costs about $ 1.80 – it’s crazy,” Mohamed Osman, a trader, told AFP this week. In Somalia, where some 1.4 million children under the age of five are believed to be severely malnourished and more than 4 million people are in need of emergency food aid, price increases of any magnitude will have an impact. And while some countries are not as dependent on wheat imports as some countries are, Somalia has many other reasons to fear the wavy outcome of the war in Ukraine. Petroc Wilton, a spokesman for the United Nations World Food Program (WFP), said most of the organization’s food aid to Somalia came through cash transfers, which were extremely vulnerable to market fluctuations. “Any significant impact on the purchasing power of the people we serve due to sudden price changes is a real concern, especially in the context of this very, very severe drought,” he says. The drought has hit the country since October 2020, and the United Nations has warned that Somalia could go hungry this year if the rains expected in the coming weeks are not heavy enough. In 2011, the last time Somalia saw famine, nearly 260,000 people are believed to have died. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, food prices had already risen due to drought, with animals dying or declining in quality, and cereal crops such as sorghum well below long-term averages. “The medium-term effects of the crisis in Ukraine are just one more reason for very serious concern,” Wilton said. WFP in Somalia is “almost” picking up the last shipment of food – a supply of yellow peas – that left the port of Odessa before being forced to close, Wilton added. “After that, at the moment we have no visibility for further expected missions. “So, yes, there is a real concern that the rarity of some of these goods coming to Somalia and the region could raise prices.” Um Abdo prepares bread for the family at her home in the village of Zerzara on the west bank of the Nile River. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could mean less bread on the table in Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere in the Arab world, where millions are already struggling to survive. Photo: Khaled Desouki / AFP / Getty Images
Egypt
For decades, tens of millions of Egyptians have been able to go to their local bakery and collect subsidized bread for a few pennies. Bread is so central to the Egyptian way of life that it is known as ais – literally, “life”. Soon, however, this fixed price could rise as the government tries to meet the rising cost of wheat resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Egypt, the world’s largest importer of wheat, is particularly vulnerable to price shocks and consumers are already seeing large increases in the cost of non-subsidized goods. Last year, Egypt imported more than 70% of its grain from either Russia or Ukraine, according to the UN, so the first challenge for the state is to look for alternative suppliers away from the Black Sea. This week, the French agriculture minister, for example, said his country would “stand by Egypt” “to make sure it gets the wheat it needs in the coming months.” But there are problems with most of the alternatives. Wheat from France was considered very wet in the past. Other major exporters, such as Australia or Canada, bring significant additional transportation costs, especially in times of high fuel prices. In an interview last month, Supply Minister Ali El-Moselhy urged Egyptians not to worry, saying the country’s reserves were sufficient for at least four months and that there was “political will and vision to maintain wheat stocks”. The local harvest, he added, according to Bloomberg, was expected to yield 1 million tonnes more than expected. However, with the average price per tonne of imported wheat about $ 100 more expensive now than last year, many also expect the government to take action on subsidized loaves. The program had already been targeted before the invasion of Ukraine. Last year, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi said: “It is unrealistic to sell 20 loaves at the same price as a cigarette. This must stop.” Now such a move seems inevitable. But in a country where about a third of the population lives below the poverty line, it remains to be seen whether the government is prepared for the social consequences. “When prices rise and poor people can not feed their families, they will be on the streets,” warned Kristalina Georgieva, chief executive of the International Monetary Fund, at the weekend. “One thing we know about problems in one place is that it travels. He does not live there. “ Sign up for a different view with our Global Dispatch newsletter – a collection of our top stories from around the world, suggested readings and thoughts from our team on key development and human rights issues, delivered to your inbox every two weeks:
