Deputy Kohsar Afp | Getty Images As a cricketer, the equivalent of a baseball pizzeria, sports legend Imran Khan was famous for his so-called “inswinger”. His deceptively lazy ball often started slowly but suddenly curled abruptly inward, completely surprising the blow. As Pakistan’s prime minister, Khan’s move on Sunday to call a new election after avoiding a motion of censure against his government caught the opposition by surprise as well. It was a clever trick. But will it hit the opposition? Questions remain as to whether Pakistan’s Supreme Court – which is expected to consider whether the vice president violated the constitution when it rejected the no-confidence vote – could reject Khan’s call for early elections. More critically, will the army, the real center of power in the country with which Khan had a deteriorating relationship, make its move? The powerful army has ruled Pakistan for more than half of its 73 years of independence. He has considerable power in domestic, security and foreign policy. On Sunday, Khan avoided an attempt to oust him when Vice President Qasim Khan Suri refused to hold a vote of no confidence. Suri, a member of Khan’s ruling party, claimed that there was “foreign interference” in the attempt to overthrow Khan. Khan took a calculated bet on his move to call for early elections, said Iqbal Singh Sevea, an associate professor at the Institute for South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore. “Imran Khan is betting on maintaining his base of support and splitting the opposition. Opposition parties are united only by the desire to overthrow Imran Khan’s government and are unlikely to be able to maintain a united front,” he told CNBC on Monday. . Imran Khan has been the army’s favorite son for several years. But he had a fight with the army chief several months ago. This relationship is not in a good position. Michael Kugelman Deputy Managing Director for South Asia, Wilson Center The court ruling is the first step and there is an “external possibility” that the court could overturn Khan’s ruling, Michael Kugelman, deputy director and senior associate for South Asia at the Wilson Center, told Asia Squawk Box. in Washington. The opposition seems to have a case, according to Iqbal. “At least it seems to be a bad application of Article 5 of the constitution,” he said. He referred to an article which said that faith is the basic duty of every citizen and the decision of the presidency implied that members of the opposition who submitted the motion of censure were acting against Pakistan. However, Khan’s election game can bear fruit because it is linked to “a strong and loyal base,” Iqbal said. “In recent days, Khan has mobilized this base through mass rallies and public speeches for the upcoming elections. His message of fighting corruption and political dynasties, along with his appeal to religious symbolism, have won him support. ” said the professor. Khan’s party emerged as the big winner in last week’s mayoral and local government elections in Haiper Pakhtunhwa. “Having said that, inflation and the price of utilities have led to frustration among those who voted for him,” Iqbal said. Pakistan’s inflation is over 10% this year and Khan’s handling of the economy has been attacked by the opposition. The army, which so far has been neutral, is another big stranger. “Imran Khan was the army’s favorite son for several years. But he had a fight with the army chief several months ago,” Kugelman said. “This relationship is not in a good position. This means that the army chief will not do all possible favors to Imran Khan.” Various factors play a role, but the coming days may bring some clarity.
