Why it matters: Since being ousted in April, Khan has been mobilizing huge crowds while railing against the government and breaking a long-standing taboo by criticizing the military. The threat of arrest dramatically raises the stakes of this showdown. Leading the story: At a rally on Saturday, Khan named a police chief and a judge involved in a treason case against one of his aides and said: “We will not spare you, we will sue you,” according to Reuters.
Police deemed it an immediate threat and charged Khan with spreading terrorism. Pakistan’s information minister accused him of “inciting the people to violence, lawlessness, rebellion and riots.” Pakistan’s media regulator also banned live coverage of Khan’s speeches.
Between the lines: Khan’s aide, Shahbaz Gill, was arrested after he called on army members to reject “illegal orders” from their superiors, hinting at the idea that military leaders have turned on Khan, but the soldier is standing behind him.
Analysts believe the military, Pakistan’s most powerful institution, helped bring Khan to power and later ousted him.
Khan’s removal in a no-confidence vote remains highly controversial.
The new government, led by Shehbaz Sharif, claims that Khan’s financial mismanagement was his undoing. Pakistan is in the midst of a debt crisis exacerbated by rising food and fuel costs. Khan claims, without evidence, that his overthrow was engineered by the US because he was too close to China and Russia. The US denies this, but Khan’s anti-American rhetoric has energized his supporters.
What we’re watching: Khan returns to campaign mode with a strong sense of grievance and a dedicated support base – a role well suited to the former cricket star, who previously spent two decades in opposition.
His party won a landslide in regional elections last month and Khan is holding massive rallies to pressure the government to hold early elections.
“Any effort the Pakistani government makes to weaken Imran Khan will end up making him stronger,” argues Michael Kugelman, a Pakistan expert at the Wilson Center. “[D]Dysfunctional and repressive policies play to his strengths as a populist and enable him to channel public anger to his advantage.”
What’s next: Khan’s lawyer said Monday that he had been granted bail for three days before his arrest, likely meaning he will not be arrested during that time. However, the Islamabad High Court initiated separate contempt of court proceedings over Khan’s comments about the judge.
For now, Khan’s supporters have vowed to stay outside his house. “The police will have to step over our bodies before they get to him. It’s our last hope,” one man told the BBC. If Khan is arrested, “we will occupy Islamabad,” a former senior official in Khan’s party threatened.
Worth noting: The administration seems more focused on the feud with Khan than on dealing with the floods that have killed more than 600 people, notes Brookings’ Madiha Afzal.
