Is Alberta In A 6Th Wave Doctors And Scientists Say Be Prepared

Several key measures for COVID, including positivity rates and wastewater levels, begin to deteriorate again a month after the province lifted almost all remaining public health measures. “The numbers are not good,” said Dr. Noel Gibney, an associate professor of Intensive Care Medicine at the University of Alberta. “We are in the very early stages of the sixth wave. Many other provinces are. The difference is that they have admitted it.” New hospitalization rates are starting to rise again, too, and trends are a major concern for Gibney. “It looks like we are starting the sixth wave with a really high base price of hospitalizations. And the concern is that we could exceed the number of hospitalizations we saw in the fifth wave.” The latest publicly available figures show that, as of Monday, 964 people were being treated for COVID-19, including 47 in the intensive care unit. One week earlier, 956 to 56 were admitted to the ICU. Dr Noel Gibney, an associate professor in the intensive care unit at the University of Alberta, says the province is at the beginning of the sixth wave of COVID-19. He says it is probably inevitable. (CBC)
On Wednesday, Health Secretary Jason Kopping acknowledged the early development of positivity and data on Alberta wastewater. But, he said, it is too early to say whether the sixth wave has begun. “We have to wait and see. If we look at other jurisdictions around the world and across the country, we have seen an increase in BA.2 – an increase in cases. What remains to be seen is how big this wave will be. “And then what will be the impact on our health system?” he said. “Our wastewater data is one of the top indicators. We are seeing a slight, initial rise, especially in Calgary and Edmonton. But there is a lot of volatility in that, so we will have to watch the next few days and weeks to see either it is going to continue to grow or not. “ BA.2 subtype, which now accounts for 70 percent of laboratory-confirmed cases in Alberta, is more contagious than the original Omicron variant (BA.1). Development biologist Gosia Gasperowicz from Calgary agrees that the sixth wave is here. “What I see now is very similar to what I saw in March last year and after the summer and after Christmas,” he said. Gosia Gasperowicz, a Calgary-based developmental biologist who is also a researcher at the University of Calgary, says her calculations show that Alberta could reach 2,000 new daily COVID-19 cases by April 19. (CBC)
“We are seeing this wave of new camouflage,” he said. That’s how the waves start, he said. It is not obvious at first because the new variant is starting to increase exponentially as the number of cases for the old variant decreases. And the numbers are very small in the beginning. But, Gasperowicz said, the upward trajectory is clear. “The doubling is between nine and 10 days. So if it continues like this, we can see 2,000 new cases every day around April 19th and then 4,000 on April 29th.” According to Gasperowicz, this is the most likely scenario, but a more optimistic forecast, with a slower doubling time, would push the peak to the end of May or mid-June. He would like to see mask commands and other measures restored, such as extensive PCR testing and contact detection. Gibney said the Alberts need to be prepared for what is to come. “This is coming up,” he said. “This sixth wave will be a more rocky wave, unfortunately I think, than the fifth wave we just went through.” A key reason for this, Gibney said, is the low intake of a third dose from the province. Only 42.8 percent of eligible Alberts (aged 12 and over) have three doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. And he urges the unvaccinated to get their vaccines and those who have just two doses to get their booster. “To stop going to the hospital, you need three shots,” he said. “We have a lot of people, unfortunately, who are not covered properly and will end up in the hospital. And it really should not happen.”

title: “Is Alberta In A 6Th Wave Doctors And Scientists Say Be Prepared " ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-09” author: “Marilyn Mercier”

Several key measures for COVID, including positivity rates and wastewater levels, begin to deteriorate again a month after the province lifted almost all remaining public health measures. “The numbers are not good,” said Dr. Noel Gibney, an associate professor of Intensive Care Medicine at the University of Alberta. “We are in the very early stages of the sixth wave. Many other provinces are. The difference is that they have admitted it.” New hospitalization rates are starting to rise again, too, and trends are a major concern for Gibney. “It looks like we are starting the sixth wave with a really high base price of hospitalizations. And the concern is that we could exceed the number of hospitalizations we saw in the fifth wave.” The latest publicly available figures show that, as of Monday, 964 people were being treated for COVID-19, including 47 in the intensive care unit. One week earlier, 956 to 56 were admitted to the ICU. Dr Noel Gibney, an associate professor in the intensive care unit at the University of Alberta, says the province is at the beginning of the sixth wave of COVID-19. He says it is probably inevitable. (CBC)
On Wednesday, Health Secretary Jason Kopping acknowledged the early development of positivity and data on Alberta wastewater. But, he said, it is too early to say whether the sixth wave has begun. “We have to wait and see. If we look at other jurisdictions around the world and across the country, we have seen an increase in BA.2 – an increase in cases. What remains to be seen is how big this wave will be. “And then what will be the impact on our health system?” he said. “Our wastewater data is one of the top indicators. We are seeing a slight, initial rise, especially in Calgary and Edmonton. But there is a lot of volatility in that, so we will have to watch the next few days and weeks to see either it is going to continue to grow or not. “ BA.2 subtype, which now accounts for 70 percent of laboratory-confirmed cases in Alberta, is more contagious than the original Omicron variant (BA.1). Development biologist Gosia Gasperowicz from Calgary agrees that the sixth wave is here. “What I see now is very similar to what I saw in March last year and after the summer and after Christmas,” he said. Gosia Gasperowicz, a Calgary-based developmental biologist who is also a researcher at the University of Calgary, says her calculations show that Alberta could reach 2,000 new daily COVID-19 cases by April 19. (CBC)
“We are seeing this wave of new camouflage,” he said. That’s how the waves start, he said. It is not obvious at first because the new variant is starting to increase exponentially as the number of cases for the old variant decreases. And the numbers are very small in the beginning. But, Gasperowicz said, the upward trajectory is clear. “The doubling is between nine and 10 days. So if it continues like this, we can see 2,000 new cases every day around April 19th and then 4,000 on April 29th.” According to Gasperowicz, this is the most likely scenario, but a more optimistic forecast, with a slower doubling time, would push the peak to the end of May or mid-June. He would like to see mask commands and other measures restored, such as extensive PCR testing and contact detection. Gibney said the Alberts need to be prepared for what is to come. “This is coming up,” he said. “This sixth wave will be a more rocky wave, unfortunately I think, than the fifth wave we just went through.” A key reason for this, Gibney said, is the low intake of a third dose from the province. Only 42.8 percent of eligible Alberts (aged 12 and over) have three doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. And he urges the unvaccinated to get their vaccines and those who have just two doses to get their booster. “To stop going to the hospital, you need three shots,” he said. “We have a lot of people, unfortunately, who are not covered properly and will end up in the hospital. And it really should not happen.”