One week after the Ontario government lifted its mandate, the Kawarthas area has the highest sewerage signal for COVID-19 in Ontario – a leading indicator of the number of COVID-19 cases in the community. According to the latest data published by the Ontario Scientific Advisory Board COVID-19, the Middle East region – which includes Public Health Peterborough, Haliburton, Kawartha and Pine Ridge District Health Unit and Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit – reports the highest concentration of COVID-19 virus effluent. Sewage sampling for the virus is the most accurate method for estimating the transmission of COVID-19, now that the Ontario government has limited the suitability for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing to those at risk. People who are infected with COVID-19, even if they have no symptoms, can pass the virus in their stools. Advertising – story continues below
Dr Peter Jüni, the outgoing scientific director of the science panel, estimated last week that there were between 20,000 and 25,000 daily infections in the province based on the sewage signal.
“Now we are starting to see exponential growth again and what worries me is that it seems to be relatively steep,” Jüni said. “It’s very important for people to do it slowly and not have time to increase their contacts, go to crowded places and drop their masks.”
According to the Scientific Advisory Board, the COVID-19 effluent signal is a “weighted average of standardized, biomarker-specific SARS-CoV-2 gene copy samples” at 101 effluent treatment plants, pumping stations and sewers in the province’s 34 districts. public health. The Scientific Advisory Board says there is a five to seven day delay between the detection of the virus in sewage and the diagnosis and reporting of COVID-19 cases.
COVID-19 Wastewater Sign by area since March 28, 2022. (Graphic: Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table)
As of March 16, based on complete data, the concentration of the virus in sewage in the Central East region was about 0.8, twice the provincial average of about 0.4. On March 23, based on incomplete data and provisional estimates, the concentration in the Central East region was close to 1.5 – more than double the provincial average of 0.7 for the same period.
As for how this breaks down for health centers in the Central East District, the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit reports increases in the wastewater signal for Midland, Barrie and Collingwood. As of Monday (March 28), the Haliburton, Kawartha and Pine Ridge District Health Unit reported a large increase in the Cobourg sewer and a smaller increase in the Lindsay sewer.
Unlike the other two health facilities in the Middle East, Peterborough Public Health does not currently publish wastewater monitoring information on the COVID-19 control panel. KawarthaNOW contacted the health unit and was informed that the current local wastewater data will be released sometime this week.
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After the Central Eastern Region, the next highest COVID-19 wastewater signals in Ontario are in the Eastern Region, followed by the North and the GTA. The positive test rate in Ontario seems to reflect the increase in the COVID-19 wastewater signal. On Monday, the Ontario government reported a test positive of 17.9 percent – the highest since late January – based on 6,243 PCR tests completed. COVID-19 sewage signal throughout the province from March 28, 2022. (Graphic: Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table) Although the sewage signal continues to rise in the Central East region as well as in the rest of Ontario, it remains unclear what this means other than the increase in daily pollution. While the number of people being treated for COVID-19 in Ontario has been steadily rising over the past three weeks, the number of intensive care unit admissions has continued to decline. In Peterborough and Lindsay, the number of people being treated for COVID-19 remained relatively stable.
