Five recent inquiries have shown strong support for President Joe Biden’s decision to nominate Jackson for the Supreme Court, with retired Judge Steven Brier resigning. According to an average poll by Gallup, Fox, Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University and Pew Research Center, about 53% of Americans supported her affirmation, while about 26% of Americans disagreed. This is good for a net popularity rating of +27 points. If Jackson’s ratings hold up to her possible confirmation, she would be the most popular candidate to be confirmed by John Roberts in 2005. Jackson’s popularity will only help her in the confirmation process. A few years ago, I made a statistical model to understand why senators vote the way they vote for Supreme Court candidates. The model took into account variables such as the qualifications of a candidate, the ideology of the candidate and the senator, etc. One of the factors I included was the public feeling for a candidate. Keeping everything else equal, the candidates received more votes when they were most popular with the public. Clarence Thomas, for example, was generally regarded in 1991 as too conservative and not as well-qualified as many previous candidates. However, Thomas was confirmed by a Democrat-controlled Senate. Many of these may have had to do with the fact that it was popular. Thomas had a net popularity rating of +33 points among Americans, according to the average poll conducted before it was confirmed. Jackson could join Roberts as the only Supreme Court nominee this century to reach popularity anywhere near where Thomas was about 30 years ago.
Indeed, one of the great stories of Supreme Court nominations this century is how divisive they have been with the American public at large. Since 2005, candidates who either received a Senate vote or withdrew their candidacy have averaged a net popularity of only +10 points in their final polls. Compare this with the candidates from 1986 to 1994, who had an average net popularity of +26 points in their final polls before the Senate vote or the withdrawal of their candidacy. This strong popularity for previous candidates helps, at least in part, to explain why most of them went through their confirmation hearings and why many in this century have generally had difficulty. Of course, we should probably not expect Jackson to approach the number of votes Roberts received from the senators (78). The Senate has become more polarized in general, with senators less likely to cross the aisle in the last 30 years – more in the last 15 to 20 years. This is another big reason why even confirmed Supreme Court nominees receive fewer “yes” votes than in the past. However, it would be strange if Jackson did not get at least a few Republican votes. Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Rob Portman of Ohio seem the most likely given how often they have voted with Biden in this Congress. The good news for Democrats is that even if Jackson did not receive a Republican vote, polarization would help. It is unlikely that a Democrat would vote against it. With the Democrats in the Senate controlling 50 seats and Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie, all Jackson needs to confirm is Democrat support.

Do not forget the economy

Jackson’s confirmation hearings and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are basically everything you see on cable TV right now. From Monday to Wednesday this week, more than 4,300 reports were made about “Ukraine” and more than 1,400 reports about the “Supreme Court” on CNN, Fox News and MSNBC, according to the Internet News Archive. By comparison, only 220 inflation reports were made. However, this is what voters are most interested in. In a CBS News / YouGov poll earlier this month, 46% said “economy and jobs” or “inflation” were the most important issues facing the country. No other issue came close. This could explain why there was so little “concentration around the flag” effect on Biden after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While the President’s acceptance score seemed to increase by one or two points initially, any rise since then has leveled off. Biden’s average acceptance score is in the low 40s with a disapproval rate in the mid 50s. Notably, Biden’s acceptance rating in the economy has stuck in the high 30s with minimal signs of movement last month. By contrast, his acceptance rating of the Russia-Ukraine situation has risen in recent months. This rise had little impact on his overall acceptance score. The importance of the economy to voters has been clear throughout Biden’s tenure so far. His overall acceptance ratings have closely followed his ratings for the economy, which range from a high of 50 to above 30. The fact that the economy has remained important in determining the temperature of the electorate should not come as a surprise. Even with a global pandemic, the outcome of the 2020 election was well monitored by what would be expected of a sluggish, albeit not awful, economy. It is a reminder that what dominates the airwaves does not necessarily dominate the minds of Main Street.

For your brief encounters: Did you know that the Oscars are on Sunday night?

I asked two friends if they would see the Oscars this weekend. No one knew he was actually activated. I can not say that I am shocked. While more than 40 million people watched the 2014 Academy Awards, viewership has declined in recent years. About 10 million people attended last year. I covered this and other Oscar statistics (including who gets the win) in a recent article. See if you, like my friends, are not ready to tap into what was once a cultural stone. Last week’s results: I asked you all what did you most expect to watch – the NCAA Basketball Tournament or the start of the Major League Baseball season? Many respondents participated more in the NCAA tournament. – although the comments in support did not represent exactly a resounding validation for the most part. “I’m not really interested in the college ball, but as a Reds fan, I’re much less interested in baseball,” said @its_kduff. There were also some baseball fans. Here’s what @ DillonRae96 had to say: “Personally, the MLB season grew up in Tucson, so college basketball culture pushed you right in the face every step of the way.” Of course, some of you fell into either camp. Like the football fan @ srneal3, who noted, “The MLS and NWSL seasons have just begun.”

Poll remnants

Personal Worship Services: A new poll by the Pew Research Center found that 43% of those who attend religious services once a month said that the house of worship they attend most often is open in the same way it was before the coronavirus pandemic. In March 2021, it was just 12%. Early Voting Accuracy: A review of the Governors and Senate polls from 1998 by FiveThirtyEight has a mixed news bag for those hoping to predict the future. While each side has about an equal chance of winning races that vote within 5 points at this stage of the cycle, the leading side wins about 75% of the races when it is over 5 to 10 points and about 90% of the races when they have lead of 10 points or more. Helping others: A Gallup study found strong growth worldwide in people helping strangers, volunteering time with organizations and donating money to charities during the pandemic, with participation in such activities increasing by almost 25%.