UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report revealed “a procession of broken climate promises” by governments and companies, accusing them of inciting global warming and clinging to harmful minerals. “It is a file of shame, recording the empty promises that are constantly putting us on a trajectory towards a lifeless world,” he said.

What the countries agreed to do about the climate

Governments agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) this century, ideally no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit). However, temperatures have already risen above 1.1 C (2 F) since the pre-industrial era, resulting in measurable increases in disasters such as flash floods, prolonged droughts, more severe hurricanes and longer fires, endangering human lives and costing Hundreds of billions of dollars of governments to deal with. “Predicted global emissions from [national pledges] “a place that limits global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and makes it more difficult after 2030 to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius,” the commission said. Without immediate and profound reductions in emissions in all sectors, limiting global warming to 1.5 ° C is unattainable. However, there is growing evidence for pic.twitter.com/z7XHUrVgG4 – @ UNEP
In other words, the co-chair of the exhibition, James Skea from Imperial College London, told the Associated Press: “If we continue to act as we are now, we are not even going to limit the heating to 2 degrees, it does not matter 1.5 degrees. “

Carbon cuts, removals required to stay below 1.5 C

Ongoing investment in fossil fuel infrastructure and the clearing of large sections of forest for agriculture undermine the enormous emission constraints needed to achieve the Paris goal, the report said. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is pictured in a March 14, 2022 photo. . (Andrew Kelly / Reuters)
“In order to maintain the 1.5-point threshold agreed in Paris, we must reduce global emissions by 45 percent this decade,” said Guterres, the UN chief. “But the current climate commitments would mean a 14 percent increase in emissions.” In a summary negotiated with governments over the past two weeks, the committee concluded that returning heat to 1.5 C by 2100 would require the removal of huge amounts of carbon dioxide – the main greenhouse gas – from the atmosphere. . Many experts say this is impossible with current technologies, and even if it could be done, it would be much more costly than preventing emissions from the start.

Heating in orbit from 2.4 C to 3.5 C by 2100

The authors of the report said they had “great confidence” that if countries did not step up their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the planet would average 2.4 to 3.5 C (4.3 to 6). , 3 F) warmer by the end of the century – a level Experts say it is certain to have serious consequences for much of the world’s population. “We are on a global warming trajectory above the double of the 1.5 degree limit agreed in Paris,” Guterres said. “Some government and business leaders say one thing – but they do another.” “In simple words, they are lying,” he added. “And the results will be disastrous.” In the But the My statement to https://t.co/i3XUwlqFkm & mdash; @andersen_inger

Which countries have released the most carbon?

Despite the harsh words of Guterres and the co-chairs of the report, the full report, which spans thousands of pages into a summary of governments and scholars, does not single out individual countries for responsibility. Construction of the Trans Mountain pipeline appears to be under way in Kamloops, BC, on 1 September 2020. Ongoing investment in fossil fuel infrastructure undermines the huge emission constraints needed to meet the Paris target, according to a new report. IPCC. (Jonathan Hayward / The Canadian Press)
However, the data show that much of the carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere was released by the rich countries that were the first to burn coal, oil and gas when the Industrial Revolution actually began in the 1850s. The UN commission said about 40 percent of the emissions since then came from Europe and North America. Just over 12 percent can be attributed to East Asia, which includes China. The country became the world’s leading emitter of pollutants in the United States in the mid-2000s.

Possible solutions bring hope

However, the report is not without hope. Its authors point to myriad ways in which the universe can return to orbit at 2 C or even, with great effort, return to 1.5 C after exceeding this limit. This could require measures such as removing CO2 from the atmosphere by natural or artificial means, but also potentially dangerous technologies such as pumping aerosols into the sky to reflect sunlight. Among the solutions proposed are the rapid shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind energy, transport electrification, more efficient use of resources and massive financial support for poor countries that can not pay. for such measures without assistance. One move often described by scientists as “low hanging fruit” is to block methane leaks from mines, wells and landfills that release strong but short-lived greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. An agreement reached between the United States and China at last year ‘s UN climate conference in Glasgow aims to do just that. The solar panels are installed in a floating photovoltaic unit on a lake in Haltern, Germany, on April 1, 2022. The IPCC report recommends a rapid shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy. (Martin Meissner / The Associated Press)
“You can see the first signs that the actions of the people are starting to make a difference,” said Skea, the committee’s co-chair. “The big message we have (is that) is that human activities have led us to this problem and human action can really get us out of it again,” he said. The panel reports are becoming increasingly blurry since the first was published in 1990, and the latter may be the last before the planet exceeds 1.5 C of temperature, Skea told the AP. Last August, he said man-made climate change was “a proven fact” and warned that some of the effects of global warming were already inevitable. In late February, the commission released a report outlining how further temperature rises would increase the risk of floods, storms, droughts and heat waves worldwide.

The report can be very optimistic about the global coal budget

However, David King, the former chief scientific adviser to the British government, who did not participate in the drafting of the report, said there were optimistic assumptions about how much CO2 the world could afford to emit. The UN panel suggests that there is still a “carbon budget” of 500 billion tonnes that can be emitted before it reaches the 1.5 C. limit. “We do not really have a coal budget left to burn,” said King, who now chairs the Climate Crisis Advisory Group. “It’s just the opposite. We’ve already done a lot to get the greenhouse gases in there,” he said, arguing that the IPCC calculation omits new risks and potential self-reinforcing effects already occurring in some areas, such as increased heat absorption in the oceans. from the loss of sea ice and the release of methane as the permanent ice melts, he said. Such warnings were echoed by UN chief Guterres, who cited warnings from scientists that the planet was moving “dangerously close to landslides that could lead to waterfalls and irreversible climate change”. “But governments and high-emission companies are not turning a blind eye, they are adding fuel to the flames,” he said, calling for an end to further coal, oil and gas extraction, which the report said could be abandoned. otherwise. , resulting in losses of trillions of dollars. “Investing in new fossil fuel infrastructure is a moral and economic craze,” Guterres said. Vulnerable countries said the report showed that major polluters needed to step up their efforts. “We are facing the G20, the world’s largest emitters, setting ambitious goals before COP27 and achieving those goals – investing in renewable energy, reducing coal and fossil fuel subsidies,” said Tina Stege. . Marshall Islands. “It’s time to keep our promises.”