A memo drafted by Keir Starmer’s director of strategy, Deborah Mattinson, claimed the foreign secretary could dramatically improve the Conservatives’ fortunes. The document, leaked to the Guardian, comes amid speculation Mr Truss could be tempted to take advantage of the surge and call an early general election. However, the survey also suggests that any improvement in the government’s position could be very short-lived, with voters already worried about aspects of Truss’s character. “Our focus groups suggest that as voters know Truss better, they like her less,” he says. “Severe negatives – unreliability, unoriginality, reversals, lack of traction – are starting to recede suggesting any rebound could be very short-lived.” The latest Opinium poll on Sunday gave Labor its biggest lead in months – eight points – while Starmer surged well ahead of Truss in the past two weeks when voters were asked who would make the best prime minister. But the leaked analysis suggests Labor could slip again in the coming months as new prime ministers tend to boost their parties in the polls, which then evaporate after three months in office. “We can expect the Truss to get a bounce of at least 6% if it just performs about average, which would bring the polls up to engagement level with Labour,” he says. But party insiders believe it could lead to a bounce of 10 points, or even 12 points, as Boris Johnson has been such a big factor in Tory polls in his final months in office. “Johnson has been such an anchor in the Tories and Truss is such an unknown so he’ll probably be closer to 10% or 12%,” said one. The analysis suggests that Rishi Sunak, who is trailing behind Truss, is less certain to give the Tories much of a boost because his negatives are already better known to the public. But any candidate should expect the media to be “tired” of criticizing the Tories during the Johnson era and to welcome them with “early enthusiasm”. Mattinson warns: “It will be even more difficult for us to achieve the cut-through at this time, making a bounce higher even more likely.” Gloomy economic forecasts and the prospect of a recession next year have prompted some speculation among Tory MPs that Mr Truss could try to capitalize on any boost in the polls and call a snap election this autumn. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. She could use the planned emergency budget to push through tax cuts and announce support for struggling households, creating a short-term feel-good factor around her government. But calling a snap election would also be a big risk for the Conservatives with voters unlikely to thank them for sending them to the polls during a cost of living crisis. Mattinson’s analysis suggests that any rebound “may not be sustained” with voters “already noticing aspects of Liz Truss that worry them”. He adds: “The bounce in the polls appears to be a triumph of hope over experience for voters – before the reality sets in. Our focus groups so far suggest voters who know less about Truss view her more positively. But the more they see her, the less they fall in love.” Labor believes Truss’ failure to detail a big support package for families to help with energy bills, and her comments that British workers need “more of a graft”, have hurt her. The note concludes: “We have also seen a negative reaction to her apparent lack of concern for ordinary workers – as opposed to the very poor – in the fuel crisis. Tax breaks as an alternative miss the point. This view has been exacerbated by the leaked “grafter” tape.
