4,821 deaths were recorded between July 18 and 20, 23% higher than the average for the same dates in the past five non-pandemic years.i The number of deaths above the five-year average is known as “excess deaths”. On July 19, the day a record temperature of 40.3C (104.3F) was set in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, there were 441 excess deaths, according to new figures from the ONS. The total number of deaths recorded for the day, 1,775, was higher than any day since February 2021, during the peak of the pandemic. The number of excess deaths recorded is close to an earlier estimate by London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine professor Antonio Gasparrini, that 948 people would have died because of the heat. His findings were based on a model that assessed the risk faced by certain age groups at different temperatures. But excess deaths have been high in recent months as the health service struggles to cope with an ever-increasing backlog of patients, partly caused by the pandemic. So it’s not clear how many of those 899 extra deaths can be attributed to the heat. Ambulance services, on high alert during the heatwave, recorded some of their slowest response times in July as busy A&Es caused queues to form outside hospitals. Deaths from covid The number of deaths with COVID listed as the underlying cause also increased during the heatwave days. There were 122 deaths from COVID on July 19, more than double the average for the rest of the month (52) and the highest daily total since April. Read more: Why a 40C day in the UK is deadlier than in other countries Who died from the heat? Looking at where record temperatures were recorded – mainly in the east of England – and which local authorities had the highest number of excess deaths during the heatwave week, some of the same areas were affected, but it’s far from a clear picture. From the data currently available, there is no apparent increase in the number of elderly people who died during the extreme heat season, as might be expected. The number of excess deaths in both hospitals and at home during the heatwave week was among the highest on record in 2022, while deaths in nursing homes were comparatively low. But again it is difficult to draw firm conclusions about the causes without more detailed data. The ONS said: “The excess deaths during this period could be due to a combination of factors, not just an increase in heat. Further research is needed to fully understand this, including more deaths being recorded. “Further analysis of deaths during heatwaves, in collaboration with the UKHSA, will be published in due course.” The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to delivering transparent journalism from Sky News. We collect, analyze and visualize data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite imagery, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while showing how our journalism is done. Why data journalism matters to Sky News
