Orban, a conservative nationalist, has been in power for 12 years and has become the EU’s longest-serving leader, but this time he faces a united opposition. A poll released Saturday showed Orban’s Fidesz party and the opposition with 47% of those likely to vote. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe has set up a full monitoring team for Sunday’s parliamentary vote. The OSCE has ruled that Hungary’s previous elections were free but unfair, due to Fidesz’s dominant presence in the media and advertising space and a severely distorted electoral system. A citizens’ initiative called 20K has also organized election observers for each constituency to prevent voter fraud, which has marred previous elections. “There are a million ways to defraud the vote and we have prepared our observers for everyone,” said Csilla Ruskal-Klemm, a spokeswoman for the activists. “We will not allow voting staff to interfere in the voting process or counting in any way.” Orban went through difficult times, with Hungary having one of the highest rates of per capita death in the world in the pandemic, rising inflation and the ongoing conflict with the EU over rule of law issues. Most recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine turned Orban’s close ties with the Kremlin into political responsibility. Recent polls have given Orban a slim lead on average. But Hungary’s electoral system, which can turn a percentage vote advantage into a big one, leaves the result difficult to predict. Pre-election polls also predicted turnout would be near record levels due to voter dissatisfaction with Orban’s perceived erosion of democratic rights, war anxiety and financial hardship. At 17:00 local time, or two hours before the polls closed, it was 63 percent. Gabor Torok, an independent analyst, told the Financial Times that the result would be tougher than ever since 2010, as the war thwarted campaign plans like never before before the fall of communism. “Although the two camps are about the same size, there is a difference in reality,” Torok said. “Fidesz has a lot more resources and deeper political knowledge, which upsets the balance in their favor.” The election brings Orban against Peter Marki-Zay, a 49-year-old Catholic father of seven and mayor of Hodmezovasarhely, a small town in southern Hungary. Markey-Zei was the unexpected winner of the country’s inaugural primary last fall, beating well-established opponents. Marki-Zay called Orban “the Hungarian Putin” in an effort to capitalize on Orban’s long-standing ties with Russia. The Prime Minister argued that Ukraine is waging a war that has nothing to do with Hungary and that Russian action remains necessary for Budapest. Along with the parliamentary elections, Hungarians are also voting in a referendum launched by the government to ban the exposure of minors to sex education in schools, including content that “promotes gender reassignment”. Human rights groups say they have described the proposed ban as “hate propaganda” and urged voters to boycott it. The referendum is linked to a long-running dispute between Orban and Brussels over LGBTQ rights. Hungary claims that is the reason why the EU continues to block billions of euros in aid for pandemic recovery. Brussels says it is withholding aid until Hungary implements better anti-corruption safeguards.
