The Ministry of Labor published its report on the March jobs on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main print metrics, compared to the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Off-farm payroll: +431,000 vs. +490,000 expected and upward revised +750,000 in February Unemployment rate: 3.6%, compared to 3.7 expected, 3.8% in February Average hourly earnings, monthly: 0.4% versus expected 0.4% and revised upwards of 0.1% in February Average hourly earnings, on an annual basis: 5.6% compared to 5.5% expected and upwards revised 5.6% in February
The closely monitored jobs report in March saw wages lower than expected, but nevertheless marked the 15th consecutive month of expansion for the US workforce. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected wages to rise by 490,000, according to consensus data. At 678,000, the February job report reflected a startling surprise for investors, with wages rising 255,000 more than experts at the time. In Friday’s report, last month’s earnings were also revised upwards even further, showing that 750,000 jobs were added or created. Bankrate senior financial analyst Mark Hamrick said it would be a challenge to match the 678,000 jobs added in February, but expectations were still that the pay rise would be north of 400,000. The data of the last several months reflect the continuing dynamics in the labor market recovery, even when the increase of Omicron in COVID-19 cases led to a decrease in the demand for employees, especially in the field of high contact services. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in February to reach its lowest level since the virus hit and upset the US economy. Notably, the improved unemployment rate came even when labor force participation unexpectedly rose to 62.3%. Consensus economists predict that the unemployment rate will fall further to 3.7% in March. The story goes on “If there is a reduction in the unemployment rate, it would mean a new pandemic low,” Hamrick said. “How many more people came into the workforce will be part of the equation.” Compilation of job search and recruitment ads in Minnesota. (Photo: Michael Siluk / Universal Images Group via Getty Images) JoAnne Feeney, an associate at Advisors Capital Management and a portfolio manager, told Yahoo Finance Live that although any reading above 400,000 would be considered positive, there are still very few job seekers. “The real thing we are focusing on is joining the workforce. Are we getting more employees back?” he said. “This is the biggest constraint right now for the economy to continue to grow, because there are simply not enough people to take on these jobs, so going back to the workforce I think would be the best message of how big it is. the development. in front of us.” Labor shortages have been a major challenge, not only for U.S. employers struggling to find enough labor to meet demand as millions of Americans remain on the sidelines, but also for the US Federal Reserve as it strives to succeed. its primary financial objectives. price stability. This labor market tightness strongly informed the central bank’s decision to curb monetary policy, with economic power suggesting to officials that the US economy could face less favorable financial conditions. “The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to boost employment and stable prices,” said Ted Rossman, Bankrat’s senior analyst. “A strong labor market is leading the Fed to focus directly on combating high inflation. “Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has recently hinted at a more aggressive rate hike, and this report fits that narrative, as inflation is far more worrying than unemployment right now.” Powell acknowledged in a recent statement to Parliament’s Financial Services Committee that while labor demand is strong and labor force participation has increased, employee supply remains sluggish. “As a result, employers are finding it difficult to fill jobs, an unprecedented number of employees are resigning to take on new jobs, and wages have been growing at a faster rate for many years,” Powell said. Although average hourly wage growth slowed in February, wages have climbed well above pre-pandemic trends and in turn contributed to many of the inflationary pressures prevailing across the US economy. Bank of America noted in a recent note that amid the labor market recovery there is a higher level of job creation for any given unemployment rate than in previous history. As a result, the short-term neutral unemployment rate (NAIRU) may be higher than long-term estimates, indicating more stable wage and price pressures in the short term, according to the bank. Earlier this week, the Department of Labor’s JOLTs (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) showed vacancies of 11.266 million, moderately declining from the record high but well above new recruits. “The pandemic labor market has seen a dramatic outward shift in the Beveridge curve (the relationship between unemployment and the vacancy rate), suggesting difficulty in matching workers to jobs,” BofA economists said in a recent note. “This mismatch may reflect rising spending on goods and, consequently, a shortage of workers in the hottest part of the economy.” Friday’s data on unemployment, which is expected to be based on this trend, comes as policymakers appear to embrace the possibility of more aggressive interest rate hikes, with many Fed officials in recent weeks – including Powell – suggesting an increase of 50 basis points table. “The payroll report could be the largest so far in this pandemic recovery,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said in a recent note. “Federal Reserve officials are already mobilizing for higher interest rate hikes of 50 bps in the coming sessions, and the tighter job market since the 1960s is like throwing gasoline on a fire where every politically deserving politician burns with the desire to get. interest rates up to 2% neutral levels now “. This post is breaking. Check again for updates. – Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook, Flipboard and LinkedIn
