Sir Jeremy Fleming, in a speech to Australia, said the Russian leader had misjudged the strength of the Ukrainian resistance, the Western response and the ability of his forces to achieve a quick victory. “It all comes down to the strategic miscalculation that Western leaders warned Putin would be. “It was a personal war, with the cost being paid by innocent people in Ukraine and, increasingly, by ordinary Russians as well,” Fleming said. Western security officials have blamed Putin for the February’s unprovoked incursion, calling him a sovereign, isolated leader who makes bad decisions in part because he no longer receives accurate information or honest views from his subordinates. As a result, Fleming said he believed the failure to achieve a quick victory should cause controversy in the Kremlin. “While we believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what is happening and the extent of these miscalculations must be clear to the regime.” Earlier, US officials had taken a similar view, arguing that Putin had been misled by advisers who were too scared to tell him how bad the war in Ukraine was and how damaging Western sanctions were. “We have information that Putin was misled by the Russian military, which has resulted in persistent tensions between Putin and his military leadership,” said Kate Bedingfield, White House communications director. “We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is doing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because his top advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth.” He added: “Thus, it is becoming increasingly clear that Putin’s war was a strategic blunder that left Russia weaker in the long run and increasingly isolated on the world stage.” Prior to the invasion, Putin had a bizarre meeting with key advisers on whether to recognize the self-proclaimed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. Some senior officials were clearly afraid of the president, who has led the country for 22 years, as he demanded that everyone approve the breakaway regions. There were also growing indications, Fleming said, that Russian soldiers “lacked weapons and morale” “refused to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shot down their own aircraft”. No evidence was given to support the allegation of the plane crash, although Whitehall sources said they were confident enough to allow Fleming to refer to it in the speech, in part to show Russian insiders their knowledge of the military situation. The spy chief also warned China not to align itself “too closely” with Russia as the war continues, the latest in a series of statements by Western leaders and officials to persuade Beijing not to supply Moscow with money and weapons. Fleming said Putin had made a clear “strategic choice” to align with China before the fighting broke out, but that there were still underlying tensions between the two countries – and risks for both in the effort to work together. “Russia understands that, in the long run, China will become increasingly powerful militarily and economically. Some of their interests conflict. “Russia could move away from the equation,” Fleming is expected to say. “And it is equally clear that a China that wants to set the rules of the road – the rules for a new world government – is not being served well by a close alliance with a regime that deliberately and illegally ignores them all.”
