Just two weeks ago, Scarsin Forecasting paved the way for Hamilton in which most spring cases and hospitalizations could be avoided with careful handling. This scenario is now out of the question as COVID is expected to have a high transmission in Hamilton at least until the end of June. “Unfortunately it is clearer to us now that transmission has increased and we are now more fully on the path to resurgence,” epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson told the city health council on Monday. “Now it seems that this resurgence can be extended until the summer.” The number of planned treatments for Hamilton with COVID-19 has doubled in the last two weeks to 400 between now and the end of June, compared to 200 between March 21 and the end of May. “Keep in mind that the number of Hamilton residents who are sensitive to COVID-19 and its more severe effects are steadily increasing as protection against vaccination and past infections decreases,” Sanderson said. “Therefore, it will continue to be important to stay informed about COVID-19 vaccination.” Vaccination was the main defense proposed by public health to combat flare-ups, but the spread has stopped with only 57 percent of Hamilton adults making a booster vaccine. For ages 12 to 17, only 14 percent have taken three doses. Coverage is less than 50 percent for people aged 18 to 44. The needle has also been moved slightly for children aged five to 11, with one in two getting a vaccine and one in three giving two doses. “We’re pretty stuck,” said Hamilton’s health doctor, Dr. Elizabeth Richardson. The city launched a six-week promotional campaign to begin shooting for COVID on March 31st. However, at least one councilor had questions about the ads and the plan to deal with the future resurgence. “As our health practitioner, my question to you is what are the indicators that reveal to us that a different course of action from the one we have taken now … needs to change?” said Koon. Maureen Wilson. He says the overwhelming question he receives from residents is: “Everyone seems to have COVID and what is the plan?” However, Richardson says changes to the opening must come from the county – Ontario’s few remaining restrictions on COVID will be reduced by April 27. So far, Health Secretary Christine Elliott has said the Conservative government intends to stay on track and sees no need to reinstate any orders or measures. “We continue to discuss this with our provincial counterparts,” Richardson said. “If we are going to do things, we have to move as a province together … It really requires a response from others around us, not just us.” Public health did not use the words “sixth wave” in its presentation to the board. But most measurements move quickly in the wrong direction. The daily average of new cases was 131 on April 2 compared to 84 two weeks ago and 56 on February 23. It is a significant underestimation as the general public does not have access to PCR tests. The percentage of tests that came back positive jumped to 19.2 percent on Monday announced by the city compared to 16.5 percent last week. “We are starting to see the number of people being screened also increase,” said Erin Rodenburg, an epidemiologist in the city. “When we see both growing, we have good confidence that it really reflects the increased transmission to our community.” The city reported the death of a 70-year-old man from COVID-19, raising the pandemic toll to 529. The cases in high-risk environments were until 17 Monday after they remained stable between five and 10 for more than a month. The number of Hamilton hospital staff isolated has risen to 539 on Monday from 435 last week and 292 just over two weeks ago. The average number of Hamiltonians admitted to the hospital with COVID is increasing every day and so is the spread of the most contagious BA.2. It put Hamilton on track with the worst-case scenario with more than 600 cases a day averaging sometime between late April and mid-May. Infections will remain high at 400 daily at the end of June. The best-case scenario sees cases rise more slowly to a high of around 350 by the end of June. “We encourage Hamilton residents to continue to use safeguards to reduce the serious health consequences of COVID-19 infections,” said Richardson. “This means getting vaccinated and being informed, wearing a mask when you are indoors or when you can not distance yourself, staying home when you have COVID-19 symptoms.” He also urged those who tested positive to talk to their healthcare provider about whether they qualify for treatment, which must begin within five days of illness.
