Mikhail Klimentiev | Afp | Getty Images Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the biggest conflict in decades between Moscow and the West. Both are competing to persuade some of the world’s most powerful nations, namely China and India, to take part in the conflict. Both Russia and the United Kingdom sent their foreign ministers to India on Thursday, sparking a somewhat embarrassing diplomatic row, with both trying to lure Prime Minister Narendra Monti’s government into Ukraine’s trade and war. Ahead of the official visits, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said her aim was to impress the Delhi administration that “deeper ties between Britain and India will enhance security in the Indo-Pacific and globally and create jobs. “This is even more important in the context of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine,” he said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose visit ends on Friday, is seeking to boost trade ties and sell more oil to India as he faces widespread boycotts of energy imports to Europe and the United States. One of the top US advisers, Daleep Singh, also traveled to India on Wednesday for a two-day trip to “consult closely with his counterparts on the consequences of Russia’s unwarranted war on Ukraine and mitigating its global impact.” economy “, White. said House. Western nations, which have imposed heavy sanctions on Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, are trying to block Moscow’s economic escape routes, such as those offered by oil and gas sales to China and India. Russia, for its part, is seeking to circumvent sanctions through ties it has established with its Asian neighbors. Following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on February 24, condemnation of Moscow’s aggression was almost universal. But some countries, allied or friendly to Russia, were more ambiguous. On March 2, 141 countries voted in favor of a UN General Assembly resolution condemning the Russian invasion. Five countries – Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria and, of course, Russia – voted against, while 35 abstained, including China and India. Further votes have since been taken on other resolutions condemning the war, with China and India maintaining their neutral stance.
India and China
Both China and India are believed to be wary of closed-door warfare. Of particular concern to China is the uncertainty it brings to world relations and trade. India, for its part, has extensive defense ties with Russia and is an importer of Russian oil. Analysts say both forces hope for a ceasefire sooner rather than later, despite the fact that President Vladimir Putin shows little sign of escalating the conflict. “India’s position has raised a lot of eyebrows around the world,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Ankit Panda told CNBC on Thursday. its historical defense relationship with Russia and its continued dependence on Russian defense equipment [military equipment] but it is not a simple matter. “ “I think India would favor a ceasefire and a quick end [of the war],” he said. He said India had planned its budgets at around $ 75 a barrel. The war caused these prices to skyrocket to over $ 100 and that was another reason why India could not abandon its relationship with the oil exporter Russia. Indeed, in recent weeks India has been buying discounted Russian oil as Western buyers try to significantly reduce energy imports from Russia. Putin has cultivated cordial and still warm relations with the leaders of India and China, with President Xi Jinping calling Putin his “best friend” in 2019, as their relations deepen while those with the West deteriorate. Michael Metzel TASS | Getty Images “This is a lot like resettlement of a binary world order,” Marco Papic, a partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, told CNBC earlier this month. “At the moment it seems that the West has rebuilt the transatlantic relationship and China is on Russia’s side, that is exactly the perception in the West,” he said, adding that China must be careful about how it proceeds. at the diplomatic level. “China is trying to do this elaborate dance where it is trying to signal to everyone that it was not on the side of Russia, but it is also not on the side of America and it just seems that this is not enough. In the world of social media , on Twitter, you are on one side or the other very fast and I do not think China wants to cancel. “ A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in London was not immediately available for comment when he contacted CNBC.
Beyond the West
Putin has also cultivated a relationship with Monti, the leader of his BRICS colleague (the acronym for emerging market giants Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), a relationship the West sees as a threat to world order. On Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned in the military alliance’s latest annual report that “we have entered a new era in global security where authoritarian powers such as Russia and China openly challenge our basic security principles.” and seek to rewrite the whole world order on which our peace and prosperity depend. ” Worryingly for the West, Russia could try to strengthen its relations with countries other than neutral countries besides China and India. The Economist Intelligence Unit released a report on Thursday stating that “two-thirds of the world’s population lives in neutral countries or in countries leaning towards Russia over the war in Ukraine.” According to the report, while 36% of the world’s population lives in countries that have actively condemned Russia and imposed sanctions on the Russian economy, including the United States, those in the EU as well as Japan, Australia, Canada and the United States. Vassilios, “Almost a third of the world’s population lives in a country that has remained neutral so far.” Led by India, these non-aligned countries – including Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates – “will do everything in their power to avoid choosing sides that seek to take advantage of their apparent neutrality”. noted the EIU. Meanwhile, another 32% of the world’s population lives in a country where the government has backed Russia’s actions, he said. Commenting on the survey, Agathe Demarais, director of global forecasting at the EIU, said that “in the coming years Russia (and China) will devote their efforts to flirting with non-aligned, neutral countries – mainly in the developing world.” “By building on other means, such as vaccine diplomacy, the governments of Russia and China will hope to create an opposite front in the West. The end result will be a declining influence and a gradual withdrawal of Western countries from much of the developing world.” “
