Raigo Pajula | Afp | Getty Images When Russia invaded Ukraine, it was widely believed that it was expecting an easy victory over its neighbor. So far, however, Russia has little to show for what it calls its “special military operation”: its forces have been mired in fighting mainly on the northern, eastern and southern fringes of Ukraine and have found the country much more organized and well equipped than they expected. Russian forces have occupied only one city, Kherson, but even this occupation seems fragile, with Ukrainian forces launching a counterattack to retake the southern port. Similar moves have been made elsewhere in Ukraine, with officials claiming that its forces are deploying an increasing number of counterattacks. Just one month after the war, Moscow is facing unintended consequences of its aggression in Ukraine, ranging from heavy casualties among its troops to financial disaster in the years to come. Here are five of them:
1) Russian losses are high
Russia has been reluctant to release statistics on its casualties, but a Russian Defense Ministry official said on Friday that 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed in the war so far and that 3,825 had been wounded. Ukrainian authorities say more than 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the conflict, while a senior NATO official last week estimated that between 8,000 and 15,000 had been killed. Ukrainian soldiers rescue equipment from the body of a dead Russian soldier after the destruction of a Russian vehicle by Ukrainian forces near Sytnyaky, Ukraine, on March 3, 2022. Marcus Yam | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images If accurate, those numbers would be high for Russia – comparable to the nearly 15,000 Soviet soldiers who lost their lives during the 10-year war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. To date, this invasion is unpopular. in Russia, because it won the country little, but it cost a lot of blood. To put the casualties of Russian forces in context, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHR) said on Tuesday that it had recorded a total of 1,151 deaths among Ukrainian civilians, including 54 children and more than 1,800 wounded civilians. He believes that the actual number of victims is significantly higher. “Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide range of impacts, including heavy artillery bombardment and multi-launcher systems, as well as rocket and air bombardment,” the OHCHR said.
2) The Ukrainians now hate Russia
One of the possible consequences of this war is that more Ukrainians will develop a persistent hostility to Russia. Russia’s attacks on civilian infrastructure – including a children’s hospital and maternity hospital, as well as a theater where families sought refuge – are widely regarded as war crimes by the international community. Russia says it has not targeted civilians. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky summed up the situation in the country in early March, saying “we will not forgive, we will not forget, we will punish all those who committed atrocities in this war on our land”, before adding that “there will be no quiet place on this Earth except the grave “. A car burns after the destruction of a children’s hospital in Mariupol on March 9, 2022, in this static image from a video brochure received by Reuters. Military Ukraine via Reuters Russian President Vladimir Putin has praised the cultural, linguistic and historical ties between Russia and Ukraine, but led what is likely to be a permanent wedge between nations. A Ukrainian lawmaker, Kira Rudik, wrote on Twitter on Monday that watching Ukrainian homes burn down as a result of Russian attacks “makes us feel more angry,” while another took part in calls for $ 400 billion in compensation from Russia in order to to rebuild Ukraine. Putin has been urging Ukrainians in recent years, reiterating his belief that Ukraine is “no state” and that it is a historic part – and indeed a creation – of Russia, a claim he has made again in recent weeks. A woman holds a child next to a damaged bridge during an evacuation from Irpin, outside Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 28, 2022. Oleksandr Ratushniak | Reuters Many Ukrainians, on the other hand, have spent much of the last two decades trying to assert their separation from Russia, rejecting pro-Russian (and political) policies and inciting not one but two dramatic uprisings in 2004 and 2013. Euromaidan – Thousands of Ukrainians have bravely faced police brutality and violent repression to demand political change and Ukraine’s accession to the EU. This ambition has only deepened under President Zelensky, who has called on the EU to speed up Ukraine’s accession to the bloc, while acknowledging that Ukraine may never join NATO – one of Moscow’s intended consequences – as it seeks to compromise to find peace agreement with Russia.
3) Financial disaster
The international community has been accused of being slow and ineffective when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. This time, it picked up the pace of Russia’s massive invasion, with Western democracies imposing broad sanctions on key Russian business sectors. and individuals affiliated with or supporting the Kremlin. As a result, the Russian economy is expected to fall into a deep recession this year. The Institute of International Economics predicts that Russia’s economy will shrink by up to 15% in 2022 due to the war. He also predicted a 3% drop in 2023 and warned in a note last week that the war “will eliminate fifteen years of economic growth”. TS Lombard analysts predict that Russian citizens will suffer a “severe blow” to living standards from the combination of recession and high inflation. Annual inflation is expected to reach 14.5% by the end of the third week of March, “with a reasonable year-end range of 30-35%,” Christopher Granville and Madina Khrustaleva said in a note Monday. This, they added, could have significant medium- to long-term consequences, especially at the political level, which could test Putin’s popularity. However, they noted a way in which Russia could mitigate the impact of sanctions on its economy: boost its oil exports to China and India. Russia’s oil allies in OPEC also stand by it.
4) Europe is throwing out Russian energy
The war also accelerated Europe’s transition from Russian energy imports, dealing a major blow to Russia’s energy export revenues. It also cut off the $ 11 billion Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline – designed to bring more Russian gas to Europe (which the United States, Poland and Ukraine have warned would increase the region’s energy insecurity) – unnecessary, maybe for good. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany, on March 7, 2021. The Ukraine war has accelerated Europe’s transition from Russian energy imports and has made the $ 11 billion Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline redundant. for good. Hannibal Hanschke | Reuters The EU, which imported about 45% of its natural gas from Russia in 2021, has pledged to cut Russian gas markets by two-thirds before the end of the year, and the European Commission wants to stop buying Russian fossil fuels. before 2030. Meanwhile, the US is trying to proceed with the breach by supplying its own liquefied natural gas to the region. However, the transition remains complicated. “We know that Europe has allowed itself to become overly dependent on Russia [for energy] “Germany in particular … but it takes time to change energy sources, it’s not just a light switch that goes out at night,” Fred Kebe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, told CNBC. “The energy transition is a transition and then you need oil and gas,” he added.
5) Russia united the West
During the nearly 22 years in power of President Vladimir Putin, he systematically and repeatedly tried to weaken and undermine the West, whether it was interfering in democratic processes in the US (with the 2016 elections) and in Europe (with the funding of the right – political wing groups) or serious incidents such as the alleged use of nerve agents against his personal and political enemies. Military personnel wearing protective uniforms remove a police car and other vehicles from a public parking lot as they continue the investigation into the poisoning of Sergei Skripal on March 11, 2018 in Salisbury, England. Chris J Ratcliffe / Getty Images Experts believe Putin probably expected his invasion of Ukraine to have a disintegrating effect on the West, with countries unable to agree on sanctions or send weapons to Ukraine, but the opposite has been proven. “The reaction of the West is unprecedented. It is something that no one could have predicted – united and much more than anyone in Russia was or was preparing,” Anton Barbashin, political analyst and editor-in-chief of Riddle Russia magazine, told CNBC. . “It’s essentially the ultimate economic war that will destroy Russia’s economy as we know it [it]. “These sanctions will prevent Putin’s war in Ukraine – no, but they will certainly significantly reduce the time we have with Putin’s Russia as it is today.”
