May 9 is a prominent day in the Russian calendar, the day the country marks the surrender of the Nazis to World War II with a huge parade of troops and weapons in Red Square in front of the Kremlin. Officials say Putin wants to be able to celebrate a victory – of some sort – in his war that day. But other officials note that even if there is a Russian holiday, a real victory may be far away. “Putin will have a victory parade on May 9, regardless of the status of the war or the peace talks,” said a European defense official. “On the other hand: a victory parade with what troops and vehicles?” However, US and European officials say any deadlines that Moscow may set rhetorically do not change the fact that Russia appears to be preparing for the prospect of a full-blown conflict in Ukraine. A European diplomat said that while the Kremlin was optimistic, Putin was preparing for a “long, protracted Chechen war because, to some extent, he has nowhere else to go.” There are several reasons behind the May timetable, officials say. As the winter frost subsides and the ground softens, it will be more difficult for heavy Russian ground units to maneuver, which means it is vital for these forces to take their place as soon as possible, the US intelligence services estimate. Russian-backed fighters have also been in the area for years. In 2014, Russian separatist forces took control of territory inside the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Prior to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin had announced that he was recognizing two self-proclaimed independent democracies in the Donbas region. Ukrainian officials have also made the date public. “Ahead of May 9, Putin aimed for a victory parade for this war,” Ukrainian Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said on Thursday. Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Friday that Ukrainians believe they are facing a “very complicated and difficult” situation as Putin tries to meet a deadline. “His ultimate goal is, was and will be to occupy Ukraine, but he failed. He failed because of the very strong determination of the Ukrainian army and the very strong unity of Ukraine and the Western world, and the sanctions imposed by the United States. “And the G7 and the European Union,” Yatsenyuk said. The deadline is May 9. “ The United States also says Putin is preparing for the first time to appoint a commander-in-chief of the war to try to achieve greater Russian success, two US officials have said. The US is convinced that Putin will probably name a general who was in the south, because that is where the Russians achieved their goals. CNN previously reported that there was no commander in the entire theater on or near Ukraine, and that units from different Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appeared to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts, according to two defense officials. USA. One of the signs that the Russians are regrouping is that their troops withdrawing from the battle areas north and east of Kiev appear to have moved north, in some cases to Belarus, for supplies. The United States believes that this will enable them to move southeast to the Donbas region. One goal of the Russian battlefield in Donbass would be to cut off Ukrainian troops already there so that they could not return to defensive positions or link up with other Ukrainian forces, officials say. But a shift east of the battlefield to the ground can do little to stop the ongoing Russian airstrikes by long-range missiles and aircraft throughout the rest of Ukraine, especially in the south.
