Russia has revised its strategy for the war in Ukraine to focus on control of Donbass and other areas in eastern Ukraine with a target date of early May, according to several U.S. officials familiar with the latest US intelligence estimates. More than a month after the war, Russian ground forces were unable to maintain control of the areas where they were fighting. Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure to prove he can win, and eastern Ukraine is where it is most likely to do so, officials say. US intelligence shows Putin is focusing on May 9, Russia’s “Victory Day,” according to a US official. May 9 is a prominent holiday in the Russian calendar, a day on which the country marks the Nazi surrender to World War II with a huge parade of troops and weapons in Red Square in front of the Kremlin. Officials say Putin wants to celebrate some victory in his war that day. But other officials note that even if there is a Russian holiday, a real victory may be far away. “Putin will have a victory parade on May 9, regardless of the status of the war or the peace talks,” said a European defense official. “On the other hand: a victory parade with which troops and vehicles?” However, US and European officials say any deadlines Moscow may set rhetorically do not change the fact that Russia appears to be preparing for the prospect of a full-blown conflict. A European diplomat said that while the Kremlin was optimistic, Putin was preparing for “a long, protracted Chechen war because, to some extent, he has nowhere else to go.” There are several reasons behind the May timetable, officials say. As the winter freezes over and the ground softens, it will be more difficult for heavy Russian ground units to maneuver, which means it is vital for these forces to take their place as soon as possible, the US intelligence services say. Russian-backed fighters have also been in the area for years. The Donbas region of eastern Ukraine is where Russian separatist forces took control of the territory in 2014. Ukrainian officials have also made the date public. “Ahead of May 9, Putin aimed for a victory parade for this war,” Ukrainian Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said on Thursday. Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Friday that Ukrainians believe they are facing a “very complicated and difficult month” as Putin tries to meet a deadline. “His ultimate goal is, was and will be to occupy Ukraine, but he failed. “It failed because of the very strong determination of the Ukrainian army and the very strong unity of Ukraine and the Western world, and the sanctions imposed by the United States and the G7 and the European Union,” Yatsenyuk said. “So now, from what I see, Putin has changed in Plan B. My view is that this Plan B has, in a way, a deadline.” The United States also estimates that Putin is now preparing, for the first time, to appoint a commander-in-chief of the war in order to achieve greater Russian success, two US officials have said. The United States has said Putin is likely to name a general in southern Ukraine because it’s a place where Russians have achieved their goals.
