The Panthers will face the Maple Leafs in something that should be a quick fight. One aspect that stands out, in particular, is a special teams battle between Florida’s loaded power play and Toronto’s skillful penalty shootout – especially considering some of their new additions. Superficially, the Maple Leafs penalty is ranked fifth in the league with 84.4% in Saturday’s game. A deeper look helps to further the distribution of their game and to show how effective it is. While short-sighted, Toronto allows for the second-lowest shooting attempt rate – 81.1 per 60, followed only by Carolina. They also close the crossing lanes, keeping opponents in the second lowest percentage of pass attempts and penalties. Both the north-south passages and the side passages are limited. By making every effort to park, this helps the team to seize opportunities once and for all. One-time shots are considered particularly dangerous shots in power play because the movement before the shot that precedes the shot can cause a goalkeeper. It’s even harder when this shot comes from the sideline and improves the shooting angle. Maple Leafs work to limit these shots in general and from areas of higher ice risk. The only team that allows less is the Hurricanes. In terms of quality opportunities, Maple Leafs are also working to keep their opponents out of the slot machine, conceding the sixth lowest effort percentage (44.0 per 60) in the league. They rate similarly on elf movement in this area of ice, too. The addition of Mark Giordano will strengthen their already strong defensive efforts. However, what makes their penalty so effective is not just their play on one end of the ice. So they drive the game out of their own zone and to the ice. No one brings the elf from their own end more than the 19.0 outings of the Sheets per 60 in short-handed situations, nor does any team rank so much in their efforts in a pass for a controlled exit. Their attackers lead this. Among the players with at least 50 minutes left, Toronto has five forwards in the top-20 in controlled outings: Ondrej Casey, Ilya Michiev, Alex Kerfut, Pierre Engwall and Mitch Marner. These forwards, along with the acquisition of Colin Blackwell, can all create some short-lived chaos, disrupting teams in power-play, blocking passes and jumping on bullets. From there, several players in these PK units can launch an attack – none at a higher rate than Mikheyev. Use plays an important role, as teams often develop players with a more aggressive inclination on the move. which can bring out some fresh feet while the top power-play units or the second units of less octane are on the ice. As the work of Prashanth Iyer has pointed out, players with higher starts on the move than faces tend to be on the ice for fewer quality chances against and more offensive chances. This is true in Toronto. But their first unit – Marner and David Kampf – are also effective at both ends, although they usually cross the boards first to start a penalty and generally start from the full point at about 67 percent of the time. Kampf’s defensive efforts and Marner’s two-way play make this pair such a threat, even against top power play units. All this contributes to the Maple Leafs leading the league in short-range shooting attempts with 21.6 per 60. These shots tend to reach the net at about 71 percent of their attempts. It’s not just a matter of creating an attack – Toronto creates quality shots better than any other team on penalties with 10.9 attempts per 60 from home. With this generation of shots in mind, it is no surprise that this team has the highest goal percentage in these situations. How is this match against Florida? Going into Saturday night racing, the Panthers’ power play was 23.5 percent for 10th place in the league. Their success generally comes from the top unit playing between 60 and 70 percent of the available minutes. The main pillars of this unit are Aleksandar Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Reinhart and Aaron Ekblad. Anthony Duclair is often the fifth striker to complete this group. But since the trading deadline expired, there is one key element that belongs exactly to PP1: Claude Giroux. With Ekblad injured, the team has a simple solution to get rid of these players: to literally go one-on-one despite the position differences. This is not the first time the Panthers have experimented with a top power play unit with five fronts in small stops. They experimented with it under former assistant coach Paul McFarland a few seasons ago, and worked with it even last season against Lightning. Against Montreal on Thursday, this power play created a quality attack. After making no conversion, defender MacKenzie Weegar jumped into this unit late in the game. This unit scored. But that did not stop the Panthers from starting the game with the five forwards against Ottawa, which made quality appearances and finished, thanks to Duclair’s account. Throughout the season, usually in the formation of four attacking 1 defenders, the attacking generation of Panthers is actually lower than its results. Their shooting rate (93.5 attempts per 60) ranks 26th, but over 53 percent of these shots come from the reception. However, the percentage of slot attempts puts them in 16th place – as well as the expected goal creation when calculating “shooting quality” and movement before the shot. But their talent in shooting is what helps them exceed their expectations in scoring. Now with more offensive firepower at Giroux, it will be interesting to see if the team can boost its underlying numbers to improve its power play. The forward scored 3.74 points per 60 with the Flyers in the lead, which is by far the worst percentage of his career – and not close to the peak of his peak which was over seven points per 60 in power play. A drop in his game at 35 is expected, but his environment did not help – the Flyers’ power play was below average in their attacking generation throughout the season. However, he was one of the most frequent shooters in this situation at his club, often reaching the slot, and the best passer in the team in terms of quantity and quality. The team still has to withstand the loss of Ekblad, who can hold the blue line to keep the game alive in the zone, take a stopwatch from the point or send the elf to his teammates. Now a two-way center-caliber Selke is taking on this role in Barkov. He can direct the game and catch opponents who are in a hurry on the other side. Just get his defense against Alex Forementon last night. This is the position to watch: if the coaches feel they are wasting time because there is no defender on the spot, this could lead Barkov back to his usual position and Vegar to fix the blue line. With Barkov playing the point, they can look at Giroux in the final bullet so that there is less pressure in the center to get him back in place. The team just has to find the best position for Giroux in these situations. Against Montreal, it was the right circle with Hubberdo on the left. This kept both attackers on their side, something that can help defensively. And in a unit without a defender, having each skater a little more responsible with the elf on his stick can help. That changed against Ottawa, with Zirou playing mostly on the right and Hubberdo on the left. This puts them both in a better position for monometers and improved shooting angles. The Panthers need to see if they can build on the power play formation of the five forwards. And their meeting tonight with the Maple Leafs gives them a test against a real assassination of power. Data via Sportlogiq were collected before Sunday’s games.
