I have spent the last few days in the country and, for the record, its response to the invasion is more subtle than some have claimed. Budapest has been strongly criticized for blocking the passage of weapons from its territory to Ukraine. However, Hungary has backed EU sanctions and is also the second largest recipient of refugees. Over the weekend, I visited Beregsurány, a Hungarian border village that has become a refugee center. In the early days of the war, locals rallied to make 10,000 sandwiches for the fleeing Ukrainians. It is now the first port for those still flocking to the border – a place where they are greeted with a warm cup of goulash and a hug. The stories of suffering and endurance I encountered were shocking, from one Ukrainian who suffered a total psychiatric collapse after her husband was shot in front of her two children, to another who gave birth after traveling to Hungary for several days on foot. It was a sober reminder that when we in Western Europe examine the faith of our counterparts in the East, we do so easily away from conflict. However, competition between the EU and Orban is likely to intensify. The Prime Minister of Hungary clearly has no hesitation in fueling tensions. His victory speech targeted not only Brussels and the international Left – but even Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. The EU will be tempted to give its best: MEPs have already called for further financial sanctions over concerns about the rule of law, and may punish Hungary for seeking discriminatory homosexual laws under the guise of protecting children. All the more so now that Orban’s attempt to leverage Brussels on the issue has failed. A national vote on Hungary’s “child protection” laws, which took place on election day, was declared invalid. The competition between the EU and Hungary is deep and existential. Budapest is effectively challenging the notion of an EU “culture” based not on common economic goals but on a “universal” rule of law. Its social conservatism is so disgusting to Brussels that it has used Orwellian legal arguments to justify the country’s discipline in a way that goes beyond the EU’s constitutional authority. continues to haunt the West. This appetite for an alternative conservative – populist model does not go away – and may even gain momentum as geopolitical winds change. At one level, the EU’s contempt for Orban and his government is understandable. Conservative Hungarians may be concerned about the importance of controls and balances and in favor of a strong executive (even if the EU definition of the rule of law, as we learned through Brexit, is summed up in the supremacy of EU law over national rule of law and the rejection of the sovereignty of national parliaments). Medium-level corruption is endemic, especially when it comes to competitions. And let us not be fooled: Orban’s Christian conservative Fidesz party follows a worryingly thin line in inciting anti-gay sentiment. The wording of the Hungarian referendum at the weekend insidiously combined homosexuality with pedophilia. However, the policy of moral isolation of Hungary (and of Poland’s distant colleague) is not prudent and does not work. Hungary shows no signs of wanting to leave the European Union, mainly because it is a clear recipient of the budget. If the Eurocrats are not serious about forcing Budapest out of the union, what do they intend to do? Living in a state of constant conflict with a medium-sized Member State? This hardly seems to be in the interest of a body that continues to want to advance its mantra for ever closer union, even for the creation of a common EU army. Or will the EU finally recognize the need to be realistic, especially since the Hungarians show no sign of rejecting Orban’s approach? If nothing else, Western liberals could learn something from Budapest if they could put aside for a minute the caricatures of a monstrous tyranny and a Russian Trojan horse. This is especially true for utopian designs that are in the habit of dreaming. Hungary has legislated for zero zero by 2050, but seeks to achieve it without sacrificing living standards unnecessarily. Hungary’s conservative realpolitik could even be a useful counterweight to Western idealism in foreign policy. The Central European view that the liberal world order should be abandoned in favor of “spheres of influence” is too defeatist. However, the Hungarians are far ahead of us in terms of the dangers of romanticizing Ukraine’s defense. They seem to be much more honest with themselves about the fact that Russia can still triumph, through increasingly indiscreet and barbaric tactics. Maybe this is because it is closer to action. Or perhaps their history has taught them to be cynical: after all, the 1956 Hungarian uprising against the USSR showed that Russia can prevail through evil deeds – with the West unwilling to come to the rescue for all its rhetoric. . However, the result is that, in my opinion, they are much more realistic about what can be done in practice for Kyiv and the dangers of over-promising. It is often said – including Putin – that the desperately divided West is doomed to final decline. To avoid such a scenario, the doctrines of liberal idealism must finally be reconciled with the realities of conservative populism. The first step is to make peace with Victor Orban.
