Solutions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change are available in almost all areas of human activity, according to a UN landmark report. But a key question is whether the limited progress made so far can escalate quickly enough to alleviate a planet that is still largely warming on fossil fuels. The competing messages, released Monday by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, set the stage for world leaders and others trying to move forward. On the one hand, the growing understanding of the costs of climate change and a number of innovations and proposals for the transition to more sustainable practices suggest that there is still a sustainable path to achieving the stated goal of the Paris Climate Agreement: conservation of global warming to less than 2 C above pre-industrial levels with a preferred target of 1.5 C. On the other hand, any gains from these efforts will be effectively eliminated without a faster and more decisive shift from burning coal, oil and gas. While few countries have managed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the commitments made by most governments to date fall far short of halving emissions by 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by 2050, the trajectory of considered consistent with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. “Without immediate and profound reductions in emissions in all sectors, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 C is unattainable,” the IPCC said in a statement. Among the main findings of the report:
Reducing global warming will require significant transitions in the energy sector, including the broad transition to electricity, alternative fuels such as hydrogen, and improved energy efficiency. Urban areas are the key to reducing emissions through transportation, buildings, design and improved natural solutions for carbon capture and storage. There is great potential for reducing emissions by 40 to 70 percent through the demand side of the global economy, allowing lifestyle changes that allow consumers to make more energy-efficient choices while improving health and well-being.
Global clean greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity 1990–2019 Gigatons of CO2 (or equivalent) emitted annually CO2 from fossils fuel and industry CO2 from the earth use and forestry Predicted global greenhouse gas emissions based on the objectives announced from November 2021 Gigatons of CO2 (or equivalent) emitted annually Trend from implemented policies Reductions are required to limit heating at 2 ° C using targets set by 2030 THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE ON CLIMATE CHANGE Global clean greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity 1990–2019 Gigatons of CO2 (or equivalent) emitted annually CO2 from fossils fuel and industry CO2 from the earth use and forestry Predicted global greenhouse gas emissions based on the goals announced by November, 2021 Gigatons of CO2 (or equivalent) emitted annually Trend from implemented policies Reductions are required to limit heating at 2 ° C using targets set by 2030 THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE ON CLIMATE CHANGE Global clean greenhouse gas emissions from human activity 1990–2019 Gigatons of CO2 (or equivalent) emitted annually CO2 from fossils fuel and industry CO2 from the earth use and forestry Projected global greenhouse gas emissions based on targets announced for November 2021 Gigatons of CO2 (or equivalent) emitted annually Reductions are required to limit heating at 2 ° C using targets set by 2030 Trend from applied policies THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: GOVERNMENT PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE The heavy report, adopted late Sunday by the IPCC’s 195 member countries, including Canada, is the third and final installment of the most comprehensive assessment of the state of global knowledge on climate change to date. Tax credit can strengthen carbon sequestration role in combating climate change Globe Climate Newsletter: What to look out for in the Ottawa 2022 budget this week The first part, released last year, deals with the causes of global warming. His top conclusion is that scientists have now established, beyond any reasonable doubt, the role of humanity in global warming. The second part of the assessment, published a month ago, shows that the world is not well prepared for the multiple and interconnected effects of climate change that are expected later this century. And with the planet being on average about 1 C warmer than it was several decades ago, the first signs of these effects are already visible in every corner of the globe, including deadly heat waves, wildfires and floods. , drought, glacier loss and permanent frost and rising sea levels. The third part of the evaluation, which was compiled by 278 expert authors and is based on approximately 18,000 citations, is the most policy-focused. It offers a detailed look at how climate change can be mitigated to reduce these effects. Patricia Perkins, an environmental economist at York University in Toronto, was among the authors working on a chapter on the report that explored reducing emissions through consumer demand, an area that had not been thoroughly explored in previous IPCC assessments. He said research shows that there is “a lot of potential for emissions reductions that are in the pipeline, ready to be exploited” if people are given opportunities to manage their consumption in less wasteful ways – including disposing of disposable goods and appliances designed to be thrown when broken. “There must be this waterfall of value that works through the system, because it is just too energy-intensive to make a washing machine and then wipe it off after a few years because the start button does not work,” he said. Other Canadian experts have played a leading role in many of the report’s chapters. Chris Bataille, a researcher working with the Canadian Energy and Emissions Data Center at Simon Fraser University in BC, worked on industry-focused capital, an economic sector where emissions have continued to grow globally, largely due to rising consumption. He said that in some industries, such as steel, there are known technologies that can facilitate the transition to a zero-emission economy. Others, such as the cement industry, are more challenging due to production methods, but there is room for improvement through carbon sequestration technologies and through adaptations to the way and how certain materials are used. “It’s a matter of implementing innovation policy and commercialization policy,” said Dr Bataille. “If we can commercialize the best technologies available … we have a chance to fight.” Another co-author of the report, Sarah Burch, who holds the Chair of Research in Canada on Sustainability, Governance and Innovation at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, said the report left her optimistic about increased action data for climate change in various jurisdictions and areas. “The other side of the coin is that when we put it all together we are not on the right track” to reduce emissions by the amount needed, he said. Dr. Burch added that another key element of the report is that the global goals of sustainable development for a healthier, fairer world simply cannot be achieved without tackling climate change. Speaking in a new briefing on Monday, Environment Secretary Steven Gilbol described the UN report as “depressing” and said it reinforced the urgent need to speed up the transition from fossil fuels and reduce emissions in all sectors of the economy. Mr. Guilbeault specifically referred to Canada’s oil and gas sector, which contributes the most to the country’s emissions. “Business as usual” for the sector is over, Guilbeault said, warning that “only the best producers in their class have a chance of surviving” from the transition to a purely zero economy. Last week, the federal government released an updated emission reduction plan that expects a 42 percent reduction in oil and gas emissions from 2019 levels over the next eight years. Cathy Orlando, program director for the Citizens’ Climate International advocacy group, said the IPCC report offers a taste of how the global effort to mitigate climate change could be accelerated quickly with the right impetus. “The key is that people have to demand it,” he said. “So we have a lot of work to do to empower our governments to do the right thing.” With reference to Marieke Walsh in Ottawa Previous IPCC report: Mankind unprepared for the effects of climate change, says UN report Humans are, beyond any reasonable doubt, the root cause of climate change, says UN report Listen to The Decibel: What the IPCC’s Code Red report tells us about our future climate Our Morning and Afternoon newsletters are compiled by Globe editors, giving you a brief overview of the day’s most important headlines. Register today.
