Despite the announcement of Russia’s withdrawal, the Ukrainian authorities reported that the shells continued to rain in Kyiv and Chernihiv. Moscow’s claim of de-escalation seems, in part, to cover up concessions that Russian forces have already made in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks. Such withdrawals are also an opportunity for Russia to regroup and redeploy its forces in a more coordinated effort to expand Russian-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine and establish a “land bridge” to Crimea. Moscow has a history of treating talks and truces as military tactics – to gain time or divide opponents – rather than steps towards peace. Any real withdrawal of forces from Kyiv would, however, be a tacit admission by the Kremlin that the war is not going to be planned and that it is limiting its ambitions. Putin could potentially present territorial gains in the east and south as a victory for his domestic public, in which he has said the “special military operation” is aimed at “liberating” breakaway Ukrainian territories, especially if Kyiv makes concessions. Ukraine is now openly making neutrality a key part of its compromise offer. While the Russian negotiators agreed to study the proposals, however, nothing has been heard from the president himself. For Putin, a promise from Kyiv not to join NATO or host foreign bases or missiles would allow him to claim that he had prevented the alliance from expanding eastward. It would formally keep NATO out of a Slavic “sister” country and maintain Ukraine as a security zone. However, the kind of security guarantees that Kyiv wants in exchange for neutrality from countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Turkey – some of which are NATO nuclear powers – would be very similar to its mutual defense commitment. Article 5 Since Ukraine was not a party to this agreement before the war – and was unlikely to win it any time soon – it would seem strange for Putin to accept it. It also remains unclear whether potential guarantors would agree to commitments that would essentially require them to go to war if Russia invaded Ukraine again. Other possible pitfalls lurk. Ukraine’s draft leaves “issues related to” Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, to be resolved through negotiations for up to 15 years, and says little about Russia’s occupation of Donbas or any new territorial gains. President Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted that a peace deal should be approved in a referendum – but Ukrainians who have fought valiantly to defend their country may be reluctant to accept neutrality, let alone allow Moscow to maintain its land. has taken by force. The alternative to a deal increasingly looks like a long war of attrition – leaving Ukraine in ruins, while inflicting enormous damage on Russia’s economy as sanctions bite. Some Western allies, including the United Kingdom, have indicated they are ready to lift some sanctions if Putin withdraws all his forces and vows not to attack further. However, creating a working agreement is a daunting task. The danger of a “bad peace” is that it can unfold quickly.
