Date of publication: March 26, 2022 • 8 hours ago • 8 minutes reading • 230 comments A combine harvester at work in the Khmelnytskyi region of Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine account for about 28 percent of world wheat exports.
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The effects of the Russia-Ukraine war have wavered far beyond the Black Sea, with gasoline prices rising around the world and US President Joe Biden warning of food shortages due to clashes between two of the largest wheat exporters to the world.
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“The price of these sanctions is not only in Russia, but in many countries as well,” Biden said on Thursday. “We are in the process of working with our European friends on what would be – what would be needed to alleviate food shortages.” Speaking to reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Biden said he had also spoken to Canada, which he said was one of the world’s largest wheat producers, about how they could “spread” food faster. The turbulent international grain market has raised questions about whether Canada, which harvested about 22 million tonnes of wheat in 2021, could accelerate to fill the gap. But can Canada do something?
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The National Post has sought comment and more information on Biden’s comments from the office of Prime Minister Justin Trinto and the office of Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibe. Neither of them responded to the press about Canada’s plans to respond to the global wheat shortage. As with the replacement of Russian oil and gas, the issue is complex and Canada can only help to a limited extent, and not very quickly, experts say. “The difficulty with commodities like a crop market is that it takes a while for the market to adjust. “It’s not that you can add a second shift or turn on the tap,” said Alfons Weersink, a professor in the Department of Food Economics, Agriculture and Resources at the University of Guelph.
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Since Russia invaded Ukraine last month, concerns have been raised about global food shortages, as the two nations are major exporters of wheat and other agricultural products, and many of these exports go to underdeveloped countries that are major importers of food. Almost 64 percent of sunflower oil, for example, comes from Russia and Ukraine. Fourteen percent of world barley exports come from Ukraine, as do almost 20 percent of its rapeseed (a group that includes canola). The two nations account for about 28 percent of world wheat exports, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. An analysis by ING shows that about three-quarters – about 18 million metric tonnes – of Ukraine’s crop from last year have already been shipped. With the ports closed, the rest of the quarter is likely to remain in the country and Ukraine’s spring crop exports are in question. Similar uncertainties about the export and sale of Russian wheat also remain.
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“The unrest in these two countries represents a significant reduction in wheat availability. “And so, as a result, prices have risen dramatically, by about 50 percent since Russia invaded Ukraine,” Weersink said. As of December, Canada’s grain stock was about 15 million metric tons, 38 percent lower than last year, due to crippling drought in some parts of the country. Even if Canada has the wheat to meet demand, shipping it worldwide could be a problem, especially if needed in the short term. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, in a recent analysis of the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, argued that the fighting, if it led to a “sudden and prolonged decline in food exports” could lead to malnutrition between eight and 13 million people all over the world in financially vulnerable countries.
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Canadians should feel lucky to actually have something to buy from the grocery store. Perfect In total, the United States Department of Agriculture estimates that approximately seven million tonnes of wheat have been received from the global supply chain due to the fighting, a figure that has so far been partially offset by an additional 3.5 million tonnes exported from Australia and India. Sarah Taber, an independent crop consultant in the United States, has argued that there is no shortage of wheat per se, as there are millions of tonnes of it in warehouses around the world. “The amount of wheat missing because of this conflict is like one millimeter of one percent of the total supply,” Taber said. Rather, it is a shortage in certain parts of the world that depend on wheat from the Black Sea region, and this has led to chaotic speculation in wheat markets, with the possibility of panicked hoarding in the West that could actually make things worse where they are. people. is facing shortages, Taber said.
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“The situation is very serious for people in some countries because, for sure, it is just a temporary local shortage, but a temporary local shortage that lasts a week can kill you,” Taber said. “And the best thing people in the richest western countries can do is just settle down.” Black Sea wheat goes largely to the Middle East and North Africa and to underdeveloped countries that rely heavily on food imports. Eritrea, an East African country in the Red Sea, was supplied with all its wheat in 2021 by Russia and Ukraine. More than 90 percent of the grain in the Seychelles, an archipelago in the Indian Ocean, came exclusively from Ukraine in 2021. Nearly 50 countries around the world supply more than 30 percent of their wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine.
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“The very high probability of disturbances in the harvesting of cereals and oilseeds in Ukraine, combined with the threat of trade restrictions on exports of cereals and other staple foods from Russia… would jeopardize the food security of many countries around the world, and in many “economically vulnerable countries,” the UN report said. It has already led some governments to take action: In Egypt, the world’s largest importer of wheat, the government has moved to set the price of bread to guard against price increases. Lebanon, which receives about 60 percent of its grain from Ukraine, has sought to buy stocks from India. “Higher food prices are nothing compared to what is likely to happen around the world when it comes to global food security.” Photo by Getty Images In fact, India is in talks with countries such as Bosnia, Iran, China, Turkey and Egypt. “They are geographically closer and have also paid more attention to the food supply side of this issue,” Taber said.
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For Canadian farmers looking forward to spring planting, even with deficits and high prices, profits and crop rotations must be taken into account. Jim Wickett, secretary-treasurer of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association and a farmer in Rosetown, Saskatchewan, said few farmers are going to add more wheat fields this year because, even at high prices, it is not an extremely lucrative crop. – and the plans have already been made. “It certainly will not affect our harvest and it will not have such a big effect on sowing, just because the plans are made and the crop rotation in the field is good enough, so it is not that we can suddenly be squeezed into a pile of more acres of wheat. Said Wickett. For those who have a large crop of wheat this year, they will make more money, as wheat trades at about US $ 11 per bushel, the highest since 2008 and almost double the US $ 6 per bushel since March 2021. With other commodities, such as rapeseed, trading even higher, however, farmers are unlikely to rush to plant wheat when other, more lucrative crops would be an option.
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In 2021, Canada produced 21.7 million tonnes of wheat, 12.6 million tonnes of canola, 14 million tonnes of corn and 6.3 million tonnes of soybeans. The few fields produced 6.9 million tonnes and the oat farmers harvested 2.6 million tonnes. “Wheat prices have risen to the point where they are likely to be profitable if you can get the yields, but all other commodities have also risen,” said Bill Prybylski, a East Saskatchewan-based vice president. of the Saskatchewan Agricultural Producers Association. Wheat has been grown in Canada for decades and farmers say …
