The longer the war continues, the greater the danger for the West. The Allies have shown remarkable determination to wrong Moscow. NATO has been revived. Thursday’s summit took the necessary steps to prevent Russia from extending the war beyond Ukraine, agreeing to deploy four new battle groups in Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria. Western allies also continue to send defense weapons to Ukraine in the face of Russian threats to target arms shipments. Democracies have also imposed sanctions that will have significant economic costs. The Institute of International Economics now predicts that, if fighting continues, official measures and “self-sanctions” by foreign companies could eliminate 15 years of Russian growth by the end of 2023. However, this weekend there were signs of division over the end of the West’s game in crisis – and how and if Putin should be “off the ramp.” Some European allies distanced themselves from Biden’s remark at the end of a harsh but carefully crafted speech in Warsaw that “this man can not stay in power.” While the White House later clarified the president’s comments and said that regime change in Moscow was not US policy, such unguarded comments would cause concern to allies. It is possible that Putin used them as confirmation of his narrative that the West tends to overthrow his regime. The United Kingdom, although one of the most active suppliers of arms to Ukraine, has indicated that it does not consider it appropriate to trap the Russian leader. Foreign Minister Liz Truss said some sanctions on Russia could be lifted if Putin withdrew all forces from Ukraine and vowed not to “attack further.” Sanctions could be “pulled back” if Moscow becomes embroiled in new attacks. Such discrepancies suggest dilemmas in the face of any peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow. There are also cracks over whether a full European embargo will be imposed on Russian oil and gas exports. German Chancellor Olaf Soltz warned last week that this would trigger a sharp recession in Germany and across Europe. Biden has offered to increase liquefied natural gas supplies to the EU by 15 billion cubic meters this year, up from 22 billion cubic meters last year. But this is only one tenth of Russia’s 155 bcm provided. Another possible mistake is the level of military assistance to Ukraine and the issue of immediate intervention – especially if the Russian leader uses weapons of mass destruction. One “red line” of NATO was to insist that it would “defend every inch” of the alliance territory if it were to be attacked by Russia. Biden last week imposed another limit, warning that the United States and its allies were ready to respond “in kind,” which he meant with similar sternness if Moscow used chemical weapons. The Western allies have so far surprised even themselves with their solidarity. For the sake of Ukraine and European security, the hope must be that the unity achieved so far does not prove to be a high sign.
