Posted April 4, 2022 at 9:04 pm Dr. Elizabeth Richardson is Hamilton’s health physician. (YouTube / Cable 14) Loose safety measures for COVID-19 and the spread of variant BA.2 could help Hamilton face a “prolonged” resurgence of COVID-19 hospitalizations this spring, says the public health unit. Doctors from the Hamilton Public Health Services (HPHS) presented forecasts to city councilors during a Health Council meeting on Monday (April 4th). With almost all indications, Hamilton residents and city health workers are facing what HPHS calls a “resurgence scenario.” The wave is not expected to reach the level of the Omicron wave that hit the city in December, January and February. However, it will involve about 400 new hospital admissions between Monday and June 30 – about 4.5 a day, with about 6 at maximum. The forecast also predicts 44 new admissions to the intensive care unit – slightly above peak Omicron levels – and 16 deaths. An earlier arrival of the wave will also extend it to the rear, due to the exponential growth. The updated forecasts came just two weeks after the county lifted COVID-19 security measures in most public interiors, including schools. Hamilton’s elected leadership repealed the city’s coverage and physical distancing laws the same day. “Unfortunately, it is clearer to us now that transmission has increased and we are now more fully on the path to resurgence,” she said. Ruth Sanderson, HPHS epidemiologist, to city councilors. “With the lifting of the protectionist mandate, infections are projected to increase in the short term,” Sanderson added. “Now, with the increase in BA.2, these higher levels are likely to be maintained for longer than previously indicated and may last beyond the end of June.” Recently, Hamilton had an average of 2.7 new hospital admissions with COVID-19 per day. Sanderson said it could double to about 6.0 that day this spring. She noted that a resurgence was always expected, but that the easing of orders pushed her arrival by a few weeks. “We can expect the peak to occur earlier, in mid-April, and create more cases overall,” Sanderson said. “We will be able to see it more clearly in the next two weeks.” The BA2 variant is also 1.3 to 1.5 times more contagious than the COmID-19 subunit Omicron. The public health unit says its modeling is now based on the fact that BA.2 accounts for 45 percent of Hamilton’s cases and that many people’s immunity to the virus is declining. This was taken into account in the HPHS advice that the spring rise may be “prolonged”. Expected hospitalizations with COVID-19 in the next three months in Hamilton. (City of Hamilton / Hamilton Public Health Services) Sanderson encouraged people to stay informed if they were eligible for another dose. Another over the age of 12 may take a third dose. “It will continue to be important to be aware of COVID-19 vaccination,” he said. It is still early in the game in terms of medical science understanding COVID-19 and its variants. However, one study found that with Omicron, people who got the triple vaccine had 60 percent more protection than people who got the double dose. About 57 percent of adults in Hamilton had taken three or more doses, with higher rates of triple vax intake in older age groups. The youngest demographic group, where less than half of Hamilton residents have been vaccinated for the third time, is 40-44 years old, at 49.28%. “As we have said many times, COVID-19 is not disappearing,” said Dr Elizabeth Richardson, chief medical officer. “It’s all about how we learn to live and manage COVID-19 in this phase of the pandemic we expect to see play.”
“We see both growing”
The residents of Hamilton, by the numbers, are worried about the existence of COVID-19. About 306 people underwent PCR testing at city assessment centers over the past seven days. A fellow epidemiologist, Dr. Erin Rodenburg, also explained that the positivity of the test has increased at the same time as the number of people being tested. “When we see both growing, we have good confidence that reflects increased transmission to our community,” Rodenburg said. Rodenburg added that the analysis of wastewater data – which was added to the COVID-19 control panel three weeks ago – also shows increased activity. The sewage signal, from the last samples taken on March 27, was about the same level it was in mid-January during the Omicron wave. “Our wastewater data also show these increases that we see in cases, in test positives and in hospitals,” Rodenburg said. “When we see these steady increases in all of these indicators, we can confirm that we are seeing increased transmission in our community.” Hamilton also has 15 active cases of COVID-19, six of which are long-term care homes and nursing homes. At some point recently, however, the city dropped to just five cases. The entire meeting is visible on YouTube. Insauga Advertising Standards and Writing Policies
