The prospect of Trump ending the month with a flawless record of approvals seems increasingly unlikely, as many of his nominees are vying for controversial primaries, often against better-funded Republican opponents, who have avoided 2020 elections or have benefited from installation support. Trump seems to be aware of the problem and is already offsetting his bets. In the run-up to the May 24 Alabama primary, he withdrew his support from deceptive Senate candidate Mo Brooks less than a week after telegraphing his displeasure with the MP’s poor performance in the race. Brooks joked in a radio interview the same day that Trump claimed he could end up supporting all three candidates in the race just to “be sure he can say he won.” While advisers say Trump is highly unlikely to support more than one candidate in a by-election, Brooks’s comment underscores the former president’s almost unique focus on maintaining a high approval record in the 2022 cycle. bragged about his “33-0” score in last month’s Texas primary, even though many of the candidates he backed were established by the GOP in undisputed contests. May is much more likely to shed light on how and where the validity of a Trump ratification matters. “We know he can raise funds, but in terms of using it and realizing how important his power is to support, I think it could be done or broken for the rest of the campaign,” said a Trump adviser. asked for his anonymity to speak honestly. . In North Carolina, Trump told allies he was nervous that MP Ted Bad would run second in the May 17 primary, behind former GOP Gov. Pat McCrory, who has proven to be a top fundraiser and enjoys support. of the established. Trump hinted at these concerns during a speech to GOP donors in March, telling the crowd in New Orleans, “We need to get (Mark) Walker out of this fight,” according to one attendee. Walker, a former congressman and pastor, has refused to leave the race despite falling behind Budd and McCrory – a development that has left Trump and his team worried about losing Budd support. And in the competitive Ohio Senate and Pennsylvania primary, which have no clear candidates, Trump has so far concealed his support. Other states could offer mixed results for him, as some of his chosen candidates appear ready to skate in their primary, while others are less competitive against incumbents. In Georgia, for example, Senate optimist Hersel Walker reached the front of the Republican team after receiving Trump’s approval last September, while David Pardew challenged current GOP governor Brian Trump, failed to gain significant traction in this prime. “Given the way some of these races are shaped, Trump seems to be on the brink of a very embarrassing spring qualifier, where the test of his power within the party will be in full swing,” said a Republican who works in many races, others where Trump and the agent are aligned and others where they are opposite. The agent asked for anonymity to speak freely. “If he goes to the wrong side of the fight in this round, it will open the gates for many skeptics in the party in 2024.” However, other Republicans have said that Trump’s potentially tough start in the 2022 primary will not reflect a reduction in his influence as much as his poor political crisis. “What he’s telling me is not that Trump lost touch, but that he made some objectively questionable choices that didn’t work out,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican general. “In some cases he made choices for a leader, in others he made them because he had a personal ax to grind. There are still a lot of messy elections where his contribution could make a big difference.”
Trump’s most promising openings
Despite some of the high-profile races, Trump will be able to chant a series of successful approvals in relatively non-competitive races. A football legend from his days at the University of Georgia, Walker is a clear leader in his Senate qualifiers, thanks in large part to his universal name in the state. And if Walker wins the May 24 election, Trump could also claim victory in Georgia over Mitch McConnell, whose political campaign failed to find an alternative candidate and later came to Walker. Another first Trump champion is Sarah Huckabee Saunders, who served as White House spokeswoman. Saunders has cleared the field in the Arkansas primary on May 24. And in Texas, Trump is likely to score another victory when Attorney General Ken Paxton will face challenger George P. Bush in a run-off on May 24. 50% of the support needed to avoid a run-off in the March 1 run-off ended 20 percentage points ahead of Bush, who is widely considered an outsider. Trump said in December that he planned to approve the U.S. Senate by-election in Ohio. He reiterated that commitment earlier this month in an interview with the Washington Examiner, and also pledged to support a new candidate for the Pennsylvania Senate after his first choice, Sean Parnell, ended his campaign in November. But even if Trump avoids backing in those rallies, where the top candidates have campaigned for all of Trump, the former president’s aides also expect him to claim victory. Longtime television personality Mehmet Oz and former Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormick – two Republicans vying for Sen. Pat Toomey’s retirement in Pennsylvania – ran with Trump in the run-up to the election. his support, enabling him to claim a MAGA victory regardless of who survives the May 17 state primary. Aside from a subsequent victory of Trump candidate Matt Dolan in Ohio, the same is likely to apply to that qualifier. All four of the top contenders – Jane Timken, JD Vance, Josh Mandel and Mike Gibbons – have nominated themselves for America First.
Holidays and headaches
But in several major struggles, Trump’s efforts to show power have fallen to the ground. Nowhere is this clearer than the Georgian governor’s race to overthrow the incumbent, Kemp. The Trump-backed Perdue has struggled to raise money and garner support from party leaders. The GOP’s main committee on the tribes of governors, the Union of Republican Governors, is running ads on behalf of Kemp. And Kemp’s campaign has already begun to revolve around a general election message addressed to Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams in her ad. Kemp’s allies say the governor is close to winning an absolute majority in the May 24 election, which would have prevented a run-off but also dealt a humiliating blow to Trump. “I do not see a way for Perdue at the moment unless something dramatic changes,” said Lanza, a former adviser to Trump’s campaign. Perdue’s last chance to change momentum may be on Saturday, when Trump will hold a rally with Perdy, Walker and others he has backed in Georgia. A few days before the rally, Perdue sowed to speak out against Trump’s false allegations about the 2020 election, saying in an online radio interview Wednesday that the Georgia election had been “stolen.” “Most people in Georgia know that something unfortunate happened in November 2020. In fact, I’ll just say it, Brian: In my election and in the presidential election, they stole it. The facts are urgent now,” Perdue said. There is no evidence of widespread fraud in the 2020 elections in Georgia that would change the outcome of the elections there. The state reaffirmed the results of its presidential election, which was won by Joe Biden, after three separate ballot counts. Lanza predicted that the former president would finish with a “60% overall” success rate, noting that Pardew, Brooks and Bad are the least likely to prevail among Trump’s preferred candidates. Trump’s other applause has caused Republicans to worry. The former president has backed Idaho Vice President Janis McGuitsin in her primary challenge for Republican Gov. Brad Little, who won his first term in 2018 and remains popular in the state. In a statement, Trump called McGuccin a “true MAGA supporter from the beginning.” However, McGeachin’s campaign was burdened by both some of her unorthodox behavior – including her attempt to issue an executive order as acting governor when Little was out of state – and her relationship with the far right. and White nationalist groups. External groups, such as the Union of Republican Governments, which has pledged to support Republicans in the by-elections, do not expect McGachin to put up a serious fight, despite Trump’s nominal support. “The support alone is not enough to make or promote the campaign,” said a second Republican campaign agent working across the country, who asked not to be named to speak candidly about the former president.
Curtains elsewhere
Elsewhere in the by-elections, there is no guarantee that Trump’s candidates can withdraw, especially if they have credible or well-funded opponents. Restructuring in West Virginia confronted two incumbent Republicans in the May 10 by-elections. Trump has backed lawmaker Alex Mooney against lawmaker David McKinley, who has the backing of Gov. Jim Justice. Mooney, who is facing a congressional ethics inquiry into possible campaign finance breaches, has fallen far behind McKinley …
