Labor leads by 12%, its biggest lead since Boris Johnson resigned. Intention to vote at Westminster (August 21): Labor 43% (+2) Conservatives 31% (-3) Lib Dems 13% (+1) Greens 5% (–) SNP 5% (+1) UK Reform 3% (–) Other 2% (-1) Changes +/- August 14 pic.twitter.com/jDq52ETFns — Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) August 22, 2022 The Redfield and Wilton poll suggests that, in the immediate aftermath of Johnson’s resignation, Labour’s lead shrunk – perhaps because, with Johnson gone, one of the factors that made the Tories unpopular was no longer at play. But more recently Labour’s lead has started to grow again. This may be a consequence of growing alarm over the energy bill crisis and support for Labour’s plan to freeze the price cap (a rare example of a policy announcement that appears to have had a significant boost in the polls in its own right). And it may be that the more people watch the Tory leadership contest, the less they like the party. Here’s a UK poll with polls from Politco showing how average poll results (based on data from all the major polling agencies) have fluctuated in recent weeks. UK poll Photo: Politico Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is to chair a special summit to discuss what can be done to ease the impact of soaring energy bills, PA Media reports. PA says: With warnings that the average amount UK households pay for their gas and electricity could reach £6,000 next year, Sturgeon is bringing together representatives from both energy companies and consumer groups to consider what support can be provided. Sturgeon has already warned many families will face “impoverishment and destruction” if energy prices rise again in October. The energy price cap currently limits payments for domestic customers to a maximum of £1,971 per year. However, regulators Ofgem are due to announce the revised limit on Friday – when the cap is expected to rise to £3,576, with further increases expected in 2023. Poverty Alliance director Peter Kelly welcomed the summit, which will be attended by his organization alongside Energy Action Scotland. Kelly said: “Across the country, people are increasingly being swept up in a rising tide of hardship. But with the energy price cap set to rise in October, that tide threatens to become a flood. Households up and down Scotland are terrified of what the colder months will bring and the likelihood is that – without further action – lives and livelihoods will be at risk. The situation could hardly be more urgent.” Energy suppliers Scottish Power, Ovo Energy and E.ON are also due to attend today’s summit, with Sturgeon already insisting the October cap rise “cannot be allowed to go ahead”. Updated at 09.26 BST Sharon Graham, the general secretary of Unite, told Sky News she would like Labor to be more “upfront” about supporting workers. In an interview with Sky News, mainly about the strike by dockers in Felixstowe, she said: I really stood by a mandate that I wanted unions to go back to what it says on the union tin – a focus on jobs, pay and conditions – and that’s what I did. Of course I would like Labor to do more, of course I want them to do more to support workers in a more proactive way. But, honestly, what I focus on is the job at hand. Join members in a picket line in Felixstowe on Monday. Photo: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Updated at 09.24 BST Good morning. We will hear from Boris Johnson for the first time since returning from his holiday in Greece later today when he addresses the Crimea International Platform, a virtual conference organized by the Ukrainian government, at 12.30pm. Tomorrow marks six months since the (most recent) Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Conservative leadership contest hasn’t been on for long (although you might like it) and at 7 p.m. Truss remains the clear front-runner but her bid to present herself to the party as the new Margaret Thatcher took a major hit last night when Paul Johnson, head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the highly respected public spending thinktank, said the her policies more closely resembled those of Edward Heath. It’s almost 50 years since Heath left office, but he remains a powerful figure of hatred for many right-wing Tories (which, given the party’s current make-up, means many Tories). Cutting taxes and increasing the deficit in the face of high inflation has clear echoes of Ted Heath in 1973. It couldn’t be further from Thatcher who famously took the unpopular decision to raise taxes in 1981 to manage the deficit and inflation. https://t.co/6ULlSfygrE — Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) August 22, 2022 Johnson is not the first person to make this point about Trump’s policies. In an interview earlier this month, Michael Howard, the former party leader, revived the memory of the “Barber explosion” as he explained why he believed the Truss tax cuts would lead to higher inflation, more borrowing, recession and a government of Labor (as Anthony Barber’s did under Heath). Truss, of course, disagrees. Ahead of tonight’s games, she has unveiled her plan for the West Midlands economy. The following is an excerpt from the press release. Liz’s bold plan for the economy will challenge Treasury orthodoxy and unleash the power of the private sector through lower taxes, better regulation and supply-side reform. It will unleash the private sector and get behind West Midlands companies, using their growth to fuel the UK economy. Liz’s low-tax, low-regulation investment zones will enable local leaders to bring new investment to the areas that need it most. A Truss Government will deliver key infrastructure projects including the Midlands rail hub and support for Andy Street [the Conservative West Midlands mayor] to fully deliver the Wednesbury Tube extension to Brierley Hill – and his efforts to secure the necessary funds, including through the new devolution deal. It will also put the full weight of government into efforts to bring a battery gigafactory to the West Midlands, ensuring the region continues to play a critical role at the forefront of our economic growth. I’m trying to follow the comments below the line (BTL) but it’s impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, include “Andrew” somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I try to answer questions and if they’re of general interest I’ll post the question and answer above the line (ATL), though I can’t promise I’ll do it for everyone. If you want to get my attention quickly, it’s probably best to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow. Alternatively you can email me at [email protected] Updated 09.02 BST
title: “Truss Tax Plan More Like Heath S Than Thatcher S Says Ifs Chief Uk Politics Live Policy " ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-07” author: “Crystal Steinbach”
BETA filters Key Facts (5) Paul Johnson (3) Liz Truss (3) Rishi Sunak (3) Mark Harper, the former Tory leader who is backing Rishi Sunak in the Tory leadership contest, has tweeted about Paul Johnson’s description of Truss as more like Edward Heath than Margaret Thatcher. (See 8.52am)
Truss should allow OBR to produce new forecast alongside emergency budget in September, Treasury panel says
The cross-party Commons Treasury committee has raised concerns over reports that Liz Truss, the front-runner in the Tory leadership contest, may have an emergency budget in September without asking the Office for Budget Responsibility to update her fiscal and economic forecasts. . The OBR usually publishes a new forecast alongside a budget and provides an independent assessment of the impact fiscal measures will have. The system was put in place by George Osborne to discourage the Treasury from making dubious claims about what its tax and spending announcements could achieve. Mel Stride, the Conservative MP (and Rishi Sunak supporter) who chairs the committee, has written to the Treasury and the OBR seeking assurances that both organizations are doing everything they can to ensure the OBR can produce a new forecast in time for a possible budget on September 14 or 21. Stride said: The OBR’s forecasts provide transparency and reassurance to markets about the health of the country’s finances. As a committee, we expect the Treasury to support and allow the OBR to publish an independent forecast at the time of any major fiscal event, especially where, unlike other recent fiscal interventions, this may involve significant permanent tax cuts. Whether such an event is actually called a budget or not is irrelevant. Ensuring independent forecasting is vital in these financially turbulent times. Making major tax cuts without provision would be bad. Essentially “flying blind”. Truss has not confirmed it will stop the OBR producing a new forecast before the September Budget. Her allies have suggested there may not be time for the OBR to do the job, but OBR sources dispute this. Mel Street. Photo: Stefan Rousseau/PA Updated at 11:00 BST Mel Strid, the Tory MP who chairs the Commons finance committee and is backing Rishi Sunak for the Tory leadership, agrees with Paul Johnson’s assessment of Liz Truss’s tax plans. (See 8.52am) It tells you what you need to know. Let’s avoid another Heath/Barber implosion followed by more inflation, bigger rate hikes and losing the next election. As Nigel Lawson has acknowledged only @RishiSunak has the plan to tame inflation and then cut taxes responsibly #Ready4Rishi https://t.co/SJEBih0He6 — Mel Stride (@MelJStride) August 23, 2022 Hundreds of doctors in Wales are now more likely to leave NHS Wales as a result of a “disappointing” pay deal announced last month, the British Medical Association has claimed. PA Media reports: More than a third of the 1,397 doctors who responded to the BMA Cymru survey said they were angry at the Welsh Government’s offer of a 4.5% pay rise. Some 79% of them said the below-inflation pay rise, which will apply to consultants, junior doctors and GPs, had further reduced morale. Three times as many members responded to their survey compared to last year, which the BMA says shows the strength of sentiment within the profession. More than half of them – more than 700 doctors – said the latest pay decision meant they were more likely to leave the health service. Updated at 10.16 BST
National Grid extends annual gas shortage exercise amid winter supply fears
National Grid has doubled the length of its annual gas emergency drill from two to four days, as the energy industry prepares for a possible winter supply run-out, my colleague Jasper Jolly reports.
Customers face ‘disastrous winter’ due to rising prices, says energy chief
Philippe Commaret, chief executive of EDF, has become the latest energy company boss to warn that customers are facing a tough winter. Announcing a company initiative to ensure customers know what they can do to reduce their bills, Commaret told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: We are facing, despite the support already announced by the government, a dramatic and devastating winter for our customers. In fact, half of UK households could be in fuel poverty in January. That’s why we want to take action to do everything we can to help our customers. Commaret also said the government should consider a wide range of measures to keep bills down. He said: I think all the ideas to keep bills stable for customers are really important and should be considered. There’s not just one lever that needs to be pulled, but all the levers need to be pulled right now because we’re in for a disastrous winter. Updated at 10.15 BST
Daily arrivals to the UK from small boats crossing the Channel hit a high on Monday, data showed
A record number of 1,295 migrants arrived in the UK on Monday after crossing the Channel, PA Media reports. It is the highest daily total since current records began in 2018. PA says: About 27 boats made the journey, according to provisional Ministry of Defense (MoD) data, which suggests an average of about 48 people per boat. The previous daily high was 1,185 on November 11, 2021. Babies and many other small children, including some wrapped in blankets and wearing woolen hats, were among those seen walking ashore in Dover on Monday. Lifejackets were pictured lying in piles on Kent dock after dinghies and other vessels were intercepted in the English Channel. The crossings came after a three-day break between Friday and Sunday, when no arrivals were recorded. More than 22,600 people have arrived in the UK after navigating busy shipping lanes from France in small craft such as dinghies so far in 2022, the figures show. At the same point in 2021, the cumulative total was just under 12,500. In total, 28,526 people made the crossing last year. Yesterday polling firm Redfield and Wilton Strategies published a poll suggesting Labor has a 12-point lead over the Conservatives, the biggest lead since Boris Johnson resigned. Labor leads by 12%, its biggest lead since Boris Johnson resigned. Intention to vote at Westminster (August 21): Labor 43% (+2) Conservatives 31% (-3) Lib Dems 13% (+1) Greens 5% (–) SNP 5% (+1) UK Reform 3% (–) Other 2% (-1) Changes +/- August 14 pic.twitter.com/jDq52ETFns — Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) August 22, 2022 The Redfield and Wilton poll suggests that, in the immediate aftermath of Johnson’s resignation, Labour’s lead shrunk – perhaps because, with Johnson gone, one of the factors that made the Tories unpopular was no longer at play. But more recently Labour’s lead has started to grow again. This may be a consequence of growing alarm over the energy bill crisis and support for Labour’s plan to freeze the price cap (a rare example of a policy announcement that appears to have had a significant boost in the polls in its own right). And it may be that the more people watch the Tory leadership contest, the less they like the party. Here’s a UK poll with polls from Politico, showing how average poll results (based on data from all major polling organizations) have fluctuated in recent weeks. UK poll Photo: Politico Updated at 09.49 BST Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is to chair a special summit to discuss what can be done to ease the impact of soaring energy bills, PA Media reports. PA says: With warnings that the average amount UK households pay for their gas and electricity could reach £6,000 next year, Sturgeon is bringing together representatives from both energy companies and consumer groups to consider what support can be provided. Sturgeon has already warned many families will face “impoverishment and destruction” if energy prices rise again in October. The energy price cap currently limits payments for domestic customers to a maximum of £1,971 per year. However, regulators Ofgem are due to announce the revised limit on Friday – when the cap is expected to rise to £3,576, with further increases expected in 2023. Poverty Alliance director Peter Kelly welcomed the summit, which will be attended by his organization alongside Energy Action Scotland. Kelly said: “Across the country, people are increasingly being swept up in a rising tide of hardship. But with the energy price cap set to rise in October, that tide threatens to become a flood. Households up and down Scotland are terrified of what the colder months will bring and the likelihood is that – without further action – lives and livelihoods will be at risk. The situation could hardly be more urgent.” Energy suppliers Scottish Power, Ovo Energy and E.ON are also due to attend today’s summit, with Sturgeon already insisting the October cap rise “cannot be allowed to go ahead”. Updated at 09.26 BST Sharon Graham, the general secretary of Unite, told Sky News she would like Labor to be more “upfront” about supporting workers. In an interview with Sky News, mainly about the strike by dockers in Felixstowe, she said: I really stood by a mandate that I wanted unions to go back to what it says on the union tin – a focus on jobs, pay and conditions – and that’s what I did. Of course I would like Labor to do more, of course I want them to do more to support workers in a more proactive way. But, honestly, what I focus on is the job at hand. Join members in a picket line in Felixstowe on Monday. Photo: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Updated at 09.24 BST
