US President Joe Biden’s proposal to Poland on Saturday that Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine should oust him from power has sparked an international political storm.
Back in Washington on Sunday afternoon, Biden told reporters he was not calling for regime change in Russia – echoing a message repeatedly voiced by his subordinates even before he returned to the United States.
But the global resonance from the remarks leaves management with serious questions. Some are strategic and could affect the future course of the war and hitherto elusive hopes for a ceasefire. Others are political and related to Biden’s position at home, amid a torrent of Republican criticism, and internationally, as he seeks to keep the Western coalition united.
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Did the President’s comment dangerously escalate the already high tensions in the worst confrontation between the West and Russia in decades? Has Biden shaken international confidence in his hitherto strong leadership in concentrating the NATO alliance on a united front against Moscow? And will Putin be able to exploit concerns over Biden’s comments in European capitals? Will the idea that Biden hopes to overthrow Putin – even if the United States says it is not true – harden the Russian leader’s determination against the negotiations or force him to escalate an already ruthless war on civilians? Biden’s harsh rhetoric about Putin has virtually ruled out any future direct diplomacy or meetings between the world’s top nuclear powers – and could they endanger world peace if they could not communicate in a future crisis that threatens humanity? Or will Biden’s human reaction to spending time with Ukrainian refugees soon be overcome by the daily horrors of war, or will it be seen as a strong moral attitude that has changed the way the world views the Russian leader? After all, former President Ronald Reagan’s call to then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to “tear down this wall” in Berlin was initially opposed by some of his aides as too provocative. And finally, given that Moscow already sees the West’s extremely harsh sanctions as an economic war, and given Putin’s deep-seated conspiracy about the West and his role in the Soviet Union’s victory, they can make a few loose presidential words that anger everyone in the world. Washington to make things worse?
A QUICK CLEANING EFFORT
It was clear from the speed with which government officials worked to clarify Biden’s observation that they knew it could be a major problem that could possibly make an already full European geopolitical confrontation much worse.
In a punch that was not in his script statements, Biden said, “For God’s sake, this man can not stay in power,” referring to Putin. A White House official said Biden meant “Putin is not allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region” and that Biden was not referring to regime change. Even more categorical was Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken during a trip to Jerusalem on Sunday.
“We do not have a strategy for regime change in Russia or anywhere else on this issue,” Blinken said. “In this case, as in any case, it depends on the people of that country. It’s up to the Russian people.”
The cleaning language was less convincing given the clear context of the original passage. But an observation with such extensions in an era of high intensity clearly needed a return. And quickly.
Any idea that the US saw the conflict as an attempt to overthrow Putin would be dangerous, as it would escalate the conflict into a direct confrontation between the United States and Russia.
Biden meticulously tried to avoid this scenario – in particular by blocking a Polish plan to send Soviet-made fighter jets to Ukraine to avoid the impression that NATO was taking a more direct role in the war. The situation is already on the cutting edge, as huge missions of Western anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles fuel Ukraine’s strong resistance and apparently inflict heavy Russian losses.
A PROPAGANDA GIFT FOR PUTIN
There is no doubt that Biden gave Putin a gift of propaganda that could undermine the hard work of the US President himself to maintain focus in Ukraine. Moscow’s intelligence complex is certain to present the war to the Russian people as a hostile push by the West to further obscure the truth about the unprovoked attack on Ukraine. This could ease political pressure that the West hopes will build on tough sanctions designed to change Putin’s calculations.
However, Biden’s initial attempts to avoid personalizing the conflict with Putin and describing the war as a direct US-Russia confrontation have been undermined by his own harsh rhetoric towards the Russian leader in recent days. He made it known earlier this month that he believed Putin was a war criminal after relentless attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilians that sparked a mass exodus of refugees.
Biden’s comment on the Russian leader’s tenure in power was not the only striking rhetoric of his tour. After meeting with refugees on Saturday, Biden called Putin a “butcher.” Biden had previously called him a “pull” and a “murderous dictator.” And the scenario from which he departed to make the now infamous remark was in itself offensive, projecting what Biden said was a long struggle, much like a new Cold War.
As Biden probably feels the weight of world peace on his shoulders and strong sympathy for those who have visited untold tragedy in Ukraine, his outbursts on his European journey can be understood as a human reaction to great pain.
“He went to the Warsaw National Stadium and literally met with hundreds of Ukrainians,” US Ambassador to NATO Julian Smith told CNN’s Dana Bash on State of the Union on Sunday.
“Right now, I think it was a human reaction to principles in the stories he had heard that day,” Smith said, reiterating that the United States had no policy of regime change in Russia.
But the words of a President must also be chosen carefully. As Saturday’s drama showed, it only takes a moment to provoke a dangerous diplomatic crisis.
THE PEOPLE ARE ASKING BIDEN TO FOLLOW THE SCRIPT
Biden largely managed to reverse his tendency to blunder during his 2020 election campaign, during a campaign that stole spontaneous moments from the Covid-19 pandemic. It was unfortunate that his old habits of expressing his opinion at inappropriate times had now reappeared.
Republicans grabbed the president’s candid remarks Sunday, trying to create the impression that Biden has responded well to Putin’s provocations so far in the Ukraine crisis. Clearly, they had in mind not only national security but also politics in the run-up to the by-elections, which are shaped by the President’s reduced acceptance rates. And in some of the criticisms, there was a sense that Republicans were playing on the conservative media trope that Biden is old, out of control and could lead the US to war. Such a position conveniently forgets the tolerance of right-wing opinion leaders against the volcanic rhetoric of former President Donald Trump, but has power at the base of the GOP.
Speaking on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Idaho’s Sen. Jim Reese, a leading Republican on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, appeared to underline the government’s message that it opposes regime change in Moscow. a way to hit Biden. ability to lead.
While praising Biden’s speech in Poland, the Idaho Republican said: “There was a horrible blunder right at the end of it. I just hope it stays in the script.”
“This government has done everything it can to stop the escalation,” Rees said. But he added: “You can not do much more to escalate than to ask for regime change.”
Ohio Republican Sen. Rob Portman was slightly more restrained but no less critical.
“First of all, I think we all believe that the world would be better off without Vladimir Putin. But secondly, this is not official US policy. “He is a Russian propagandist and he is playing in the hands of Vladimir Putin,” Portman told NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
Biden’s comments shocked Europe as well as Washington. And they seemed to be annoying French President Emanuel Macron, who was a key figure in trying, with little success, to persuade Putin to agree to a ceasefire.
“I would not use such terms because I continue to talk to President Putin,” Macron told France 3 television when asked about Biden’s comment that the Russian leader was a “butcher.”
Any future ceasefire agreement agreed upon by Putin is unlikely to emerge from US diplomacy given the deep and mutual hostility between Moscow and Washington.
But any final agreement – and indeed the long-term goal of preventing dangerous escalations between the world’s two leading nuclear powers – depends on whether they talk to each other. It was already difficult to see how Biden could meet a Russian leader whom he has described as a war criminal. The events of this weekend made it even more difficult. And while the US goal in Moscow is not regime change, it is difficult to see a meaningful dialogue as long as Putin is still in power.
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