Berlin must accept that there is a price to pay for its complacent energy policy over the last two decades. Right now the Ukrainians are paying for it. The death toll has not yet been confirmed, but there is no doubt that civilians in the city of Bucha, near Kyiv, were shot, raped and tortured by Russian soldiers in a war partly funded by German energy bills. Since 2014 alone, Berlin has sent 170 billion euros to Moscow to pay for gas, coal and oil imports. But Germany is struggling to cut the Kremlin’s financial tentacles. Despite some cuts, Germany still imports 40 percent of its gas, one-third of its oil and half of its coal from Russia. Much of the country’s energy infrastructure is also owned by a majority of Russian companies – from pipelines and refineries to storage tanks. At present, the government is not even entirely clear who owns Gazprom Germania, the subsidiary of the Russian energy giant in Germany. It is now under state control. The government is reasonably concerned about trying to uproot the insidious Russian energy grid from its financial nervous system. And the rest of Europe must be too. Take the oil refinery in Schwedt, 120 km northeast of Berlin. Russian oil company Rosneft is the majority shareholder. If he undermines or closes his property, the whole area around Berlin will be affected as well as Western Poland. The same goes for gas transported to countries such as the Czech Republic, Austria and the Netherlands. There is no doubt that the financial price for an embargo would be high. Christian Sewing, CEO of Deutsche Bank, warned that “a significant recession in Germany would be virtually inevitable,” agrees Economy Minister Robert Habeck. He believes it is “too early” for an embargo. In his view, Germany is already doing what it can as “any contract that is terminated hurts Putin.” But for the people of Ukraine, a severe economic blow to Moscow may not come soon enough. Other countries have recognized the urgency of the situation. Poland is moving ahead with a ban on coal imports and has successfully pushed the EU to propose it as a policy for the entire bloc in a new package of sanctions. Lithuania became the first EU country to completely abandon Russian gas. Even Italy, which is in a similar situation to Germany in terms of energy dependence, has said it “will not veto sanctions against Russian gas.” All that remains is Germany’s “Nein” under embargo. However, most studies predict an economic contraction of 3-4 percent as the worst case scenario if Germany immediately stops importing gas. Gas prices could increase fivefold, but supply for private households will remain stable if the alternatives are fully exploited. Some experts, such as Benjamin Moll of the LSE, have even suggested that the sooner the ban is lifted, the less painful it will be financially due to reduced demand in the summer, giving the state and markets more time to adjust. In fact, most experts do not predict a catastrophic scenario if energy imports from Russia stop tomorrow. Hubeck has also assured the country that if Putin cuts off gas, “we will withstand the pressure and find solutions.” The danger is for German prosperity and not for stability. Germany can no longer continue to fund Putin’s war machine to avoid the economic consequences of its own mistakes. In the light of the situation in Ukraine, this is both morally wrong and politically short-sighted. Germany has spent decades rebuilding its reputation, especially with the nations of Eastern Europe. Every day he stands by, as Ukrainian citizens are killed by bullets funded by energy bills, bloodshed confidence. If Putin’s invasion is indeed to mark a milestone for Germany, then Chancellor Olaf Solz must prove it. Berlin could withdraw Moscow funds for this war tomorrow. Katja Hoyer is an Anglo-German historian and visiting researcher at King’s College London
