The US – like everyone else – is desperate for a de-escalation of the Moscow attack, for humanitarian reasons and because it could allay fears of a US-sponsored war with Russia.
But the experience of previous lies and the propaganda of President Vladimir Putin and his brutality, blurred the first signs of progress between the Ukrainian and Russian negotiators in Turkey.  The treacherous path that would face any ceasefire or peace agreement, first to be implemented and then to become permanent, also eased optimism in the West and Ukraine.
In the Cold War, the famous US motto after the nuclear arms reduction agreements with the Kremlin was “trust but verify.”  In this conflict, the approach is just the opposite – verification and distrust.  The change reflects strong suspicion of the Russian president after two decades of anti-Western leadership.  It is also born of aversion to violent attacks on innocent civilians – in hospitals, apartment buildings and a theater used as a shelter – in the last month.


US RETURNS WARING INFORMATION WAR 
To verify the equation, the United States reiterated its pre-invasion tactics on Tuesday to use intelligence capabilities to get a clear picture of what Russia’s actually doing in Ukraine.  This is designed to deter Moscow’s pretense and misinformation, and it serves the broader US goal of depriving Putin of a reward for his aggression, even if a war of lower intensity limited mainly to eastern and southern Ukraine suggests Western support in Kyiv.  employee.
“No one should be fooled by the Kremlin’s latest claim that it will suddenly simply reduce military strikes near Kyiv or any indication that it will withdraw all its forces,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told AFP. Tuesday.
There is a strong sense in Washington that while the Russian operation could rotate after its bloody failure at the Blitzkrieg in Kyiv, the move could merely foreshadow an intense attack on besieged southern and eastern cities.
In the short term, Russia could regroup for more savage attacks in a more concentrated area.  In the long run, there is no guarantee that Putin will ever give in to his desire to crush the Ukrainian nation if he secures a beach to the east.
“We believe that this is a repositioning, not a real withdrawal, and that we should all be ready to watch a major offensive against other parts of Ukraine,” Kirby told reporters.  He said small groups of Russian forces were withdrawing from Kyiv.  But he added: “We are not prepared to call this a retreat or a withdrawal.”
However, Kirby also came closer than ever to saying that Putin had already lost the wider war in Ukraine, highlighting the list of major cities he failed to capture or subdue as he stepped up pressure on the Russian president.
“They wanted Kyiv. They did not succeed,” Kirby said.
“Also … they did not really manage to occupy and hold any important population center. They did not occupy Kharkov. They did not occupy Chernihiv. They did not occupy Mariupol. And while we estimate that they occupied Kherson, that is back in the game right now. “
This record of Russian frustration showed another possible motivation for a look at diplomacy: Moscow simply does not have the luxury of continuing to attack on such a wide battlefield against the fierce Ukrainian resistance.


IS RUSSIA LEAVING OR CONCENTRATING? 
Despite US suspicions of Russian moves, which have been described as a de-escalation of confidence-building rather than a ceasefire, talks in Turkey have offered at least some optimism that has been elusive since Russian tanks entered Ukraine more than a month ago.  If progress continues, the talks may have laid the groundwork for a framework to reduce or end fighting in the future.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said Russia would “radically reduce” military activity around Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv from time to time.  Adviser to the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak said that enough progress had been made during the talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul on Tuesday to allow the meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  He also said that the two sides agreed to postpone a decision on the fate of Crimea, which was occupied by Russia in 2014, for 15 years.  Such an agreement would park one of the most difficult issues in the ceasefire talks.
However, it is also important to understand what is not happening.  Any notion that Russia’s offensive war might be about to end would be too early.  It continues to bring a vicious tax on civilians.
On Tuesday, for example, at least 12 people were killed and 33 wounded in a Russian attack on the office of the regional military governor of the southwestern region of Mykolaiv in Ukraine, according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.
And even if Russia regroups on the southern and eastern battlefields, this does not mean that Kyiv and other cities will be freed from the ever-present fear of airstrikes.  More civil misery would certainly be where the war rages.  And a de facto division of the country, which may now be Putin’s diminished target, will reward his disregard for international law after he marched on a sovereign, democratic nation – even if it provides a choice to save face in interior.
Zelensky warned on Tuesday that his country could not trust the words of a nation seeking the “extermination” of its country.
“The enemy is still on our territory. They continue to bomb our cities. Mariupol is under siege. Rockets and airstrikes do not stop.”


RUSSIA’S INTENTIONS ARE TESTED 
The next few days will see if Russian forces really do lag behind Kyiv and Chernihiv.  CNN’s Frederik Pleitgen visited the front line near the Ukrainian capital on Tuesday and reported heavy bombardment.  Such attacks could signal that Russian units are covering their retreat.  Or they may burn land at the exit.  Heavy rocket and artillery fire was also heard by CNN crews in Kyiv on Wednesday night, which is not in line with Russian oaths to restrict action.
Some Russian skeptics believe that the announcement is just a spin on Moscow, designed to divert attention from the losses on the battlefield.
“Nothing has changed. The Russians are mastering the deception of lying and dressing up,” former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told CNN’s Newsroom on Tuesday.
“The Russians do not have manpower, they do not have ammunition, they have not been able to encircle and occupy Kyiv,” Yatsenyuk said.
Another possible motivation for a possible Russian strategic change is to seek to break the strong Western unity again – one of the many things that seemed to surprise Putin when the invasion began.  Theoretically, the hope for a diplomatic opening could make European states less likely to further aggravate sanctions that have toppled a stifled Russian economy.
That may explain why President Joe Biden rushed to the line with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom on Tuesday morning, as reports of progress in the negotiations began to circulate in Turkey.  The allies reaffirmed “their determination to continue to increase costs for Russia for its brutal attacks on Ukraine,” the White House said in a statement.


THE DIPLOMATIC AGREEMENT MAY BE BAD, BUT NOT AS BACK AS THE WAR 
However, despite the skepticism about Russia’s motives, the fact that the talks did not take place at all, and for the first time seemed to bring some progress, is something.  Successful diplomacy, even if it offers a solution that did not satisfy anyone, could save thousands of lives given Putin’s ongoing horrific attack on civilians.  Some security guarantees for Kyiv – possibly from the EU or the permanent members of the UN Security Council – could allow some of the 3.9 million refugees who have fled the country to perhaps return home and rebuild a view of their past lives.
Thus, unwavering skepticism about Russia’s motives could rule out a possible opportunity to end at least some of the killings in Ukraine.  This is one reason why the US and its allies are likely to take their own data from Zelenskyy in the coming days.
John Herbst, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, said Kiev’s evolving stance on future neutrality was interesting, as would any evidence that Russia was limiting its aggression in eastern Ukraine.
“This is still bad. But better than what we have today,” Herbst told CNN’s Alisyn Camerota, adding that any indication that Russia had backed down from Putin’s previous attempt to take control of all of Ukraine and change its government could imply a way forward.
“Still aggressive, still ugly, but not as dangerous and not as ugly as their original goals,” Herbst said.
In such a barbaric conflict, involving a protagonist as tough as Putin, this may be the best the world can wish for.
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