Andriy Nebytov, the head of the Kiev police, posted a video on Facebook showing him dressed in full combat gear, visiting the ruined and seemingly desolate city. In one scene he raises something that looks like a crumpled Ukrainian flag. “As long as our flag lives,” he later said in a statement, “our army lives.” The next day, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said that “the state flag of Ukraine was raised over the city of Makariv, the enemy was repulsed.” It seemed to imply that the city had been liberated from Russian control. The story of the “liberation” went viral on social media. And news outlets around the world reported that the Russians had indeed been repulsed in Makariv. But it was untrue. Makariv has not been released. Putin’s troops had controlled only one-sixth of the city’s mayor, Vadim Tokar, he told the Financial Times. And it’s still there. In Ukraine, two wars are being fought in parallel: the real and the virtual. Sometimes they count but more and more they do not. However, Makariv’s story also provides a snapshot of the conflict a month after Putin launched the largest military offensive in Europe since World War II: neither side has the upper hand in what is evolving into a static war of attrition. What was supposed to be a lightning Russian ground invasion has shuddered until it is crippled by broken supply lines, tactical mistakes, low morale and decisive Ukrainian resistance. The Russian army, the largest in Europe, lacks the manpower and tactics to strike Ukrainian defenses. For several days it has not made significant progress. The Kremlin is increasingly using indiscriminate force — long-range missiles, rockets, and artillery — to level Ukrainian cities. According to analysts and Western officials, Russian forces outside Kyiv this week began digging behind defensive positions. The stalemate may explain why top Russian military commanders on Friday said the war had entered a new phase focusing on the eastern Donbass region, with some 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers at risk of being surrounded by Russian forces. Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian army’s main operations department, said Moscow’s strategy since then had not been to occupy Ukraine’s main cities but to divert attention and weaken its defenses before the “complete liberation”. Of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. . “It is clear that most parts of the Russian offensive are now swamped,” said François Heisbourg, a specialist adviser to the Paris-based Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank. “Supplies do not pass, soldiers are hungry, vehicles do not have gas, ammunition runs out and so on.” Russian Navy Orsk Amphitheater burns in Russian-occupied port of Berdyansk in southern Ukraine © Ukrainian Military / ZUMA / dpa Western officials and analysts say Russian forces may reach a so-called climax where an army plagued by losses, fatigue and supply problems can no longer advance and fail, a theory developed by Prussian General Carl. by Clausewitz. . “Any complicated, heavy military force is starting to get stuck,” says Ben Wallace, the UK’s defense minister. “You just have to look at the open source images of the T-80 tanks stuck in the mud in large numbers, with no one looking at things, they seem to have made a runner,” Wallace added. “These are all kinds of characteristics of a top power.”

‘Only the beginning’

Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks in recent days, sometimes with spectacular results. On Thursday, a Ukrainian rocket hit a Russian landing ship that was docked in the occupied southern port of Berdyansk. Western officials have carefully confirmed Ukraine’s counterattack allegations. A senior U.S. defense official said Thursday that Ukrainian forces had pushed their Russian opponents farther east of Kiev – 55 kilometers from 20-30 kilometers earlier in the week. The extent of Ukrainian territorial gains west of Kiev is more difficult to estimate and in some cases the government’s claims are refuted by local officials. A statement from Ukraine’s military on Friday stated that “there are no plans to attack the capital,” and said that “there is no need for any retaliation” and no action was taken against the occupants. Whatever the real scope of Ukraine’s counterattacks, it is clear that it is holding the line against Russian invaders at critical points, such as Kharkiv in the north, Mykolayev in the south and Irpin, a suburb of Kiev that is considered a gateway to capital. . Ukrainian forces are still fighting hard to prevent Russian troops from occupying Mariupol, the besieged port city in the southeast.

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The morale of the Ukrainian forces is high, but they are quickly running out of weapons and new equipment promised by the US and others must be delivered immediately to hold their ground, let alone push the Russians into any major retreat. The prospect of a long-running, protracted conflict – possibly similar to the Donbas war after 2014 but on a larger scale – has prompted Western leaders this week to re-evaluate how they support Ukraine in the long run and how they might react if Moscow tries to recover. initiative using weapons of mass destruction. At a NATO summit in Brussels on Thursday, the leaders of the 30-member military alliance agreed to step up their support for Kyiv.

“It simply came to our notice then. No one knows how long this will continue. [Nato leaders] Putin considered the possibility [will] “Just go ahead, get stuck, sink into a war of attrition and how can we maintain our support in Ukraine in these circumstances,” said a senior Western official who was present at the meeting. Western arms supplies, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, were crucial to sustaining Ukraine’s defense. Officials in those countries now plan to expand the number of supply routes to Ukraine to reduce dependence on a single distribution hub in southern Poland and reduce the risk of Russia disrupting shipments. A Ukrainian soldier on Thursday passes through a damaged Russian Grad artillery system in Kharkov, which holds the line against the invasion © Efrem Lukatsky / AP Boris Johnson said after the NATO summit that the United Kingdom and its allies would “step up deadly aid to Ukraine on a large scale.” But the British prime minister noted that these supplies are “just the beginning. We must support a free and democratic Ukraine in the long run. “This is a fellow European democracy waging a war of national defense,” he added.

Reconstruction in Donbas

Western leaders warn that Putin is likely to respond to Russia’s inability to make a profit by developing more violence, including chemical or biological weapons. NATO agreed on Thursday to activate its own defense against chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons and to begin sending equipment to Ukraine to detect, protect and mitigate the damage caused by weapons of mass destruction. “We are taking steps both to support Ukraine and to defend ourselves,” said Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, citing the use of chemical weapons by Russia against dissidents such as Alexei Navalny and its support for Syria, which used chemical weapons. against its people during the war in this country. A member of the Ukrainian Armed Forces builds a shelter near Makariv. One month later, the city provides a snapshot of the conflict © Maksim Levin / Reuters “We are close to a dead end. . . this is clear. After a month, Russia has achieved almost none of its strategic goals, but is at a dead end in Kyiv. “They have been stalled in the talks,” said a senior NATO official. “But its price is absolutely horrible when you see that. . . what they do is techniques from World War II. “ It is unclear whether Russia will actually withdraw forces from the rest of the country to focus on the east, or whether Friday’s statement was intended to explain Russia’s failure to make progress in recent days. Pro-Russian troops drive armored vehicle into separatist-controlled town of Volnovakha in Donetsk region earlier this month © Alexander Ermochenko / Reuters Western officials and analysts warned earlier this week that the Kremlin could resume its offensive in Donbass. About a quarter of Ukraine’s ground forces, including some of its best-trained units, are fighting there, and defeat would deal a blow to President Volodymyr Zelensky. It would also secure a land corridor between Russia and Crimea and possibly allow Putin to declare “victory” back home. A U.S. defense official says the Donbass area “has become much more active for Russian forces.” . . have applied much more energy to the region. ” “Of all the sectors, I have the biggest concerns there,” he added. “The good thing is that there are 10 brigades of the best Ukrainian troops, which are in defensive positions – they have been digging since 2014 – and they are a really good force.” Woman investigates damaged building after Kharkiv bombing last week © Vasiliy Zhlobsky / EPA-EFE / Shutterstock Before the Russian statement on Friday, in …