Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of the GCHQ, is going to use a rare public speech to say that it increasingly looks like Russian President Vladimir Putin “massively misjudged the situation” in Ukraine. Speaking on Thursday during a trip to Australia, he will also say: Wagner, the private military company with suspicious links to the Kremlin, is thought to be ready to “send large numbers of personnel to Ukraine to fight alongside the Russians.” to reduce Russian military losses Ukraine Live News: Putin’s military leaders ‘too scared to tell him the truth’ Image: Jeremy Fleming, head of GCHQ The director of the GCHQ will say that Mr. Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth about what is happening in Ukraine, according to an earlier copy of the speech. But “what is happening and the extent of these miscalculations must be clear to the regime.” He will list these mistakes as a misjudgment of the Ukrainian resistance, an underestimation of the strength of the Western response, an underestimation of the economic consequences, and an overestimation of his army’s ability to secure a quick victory. GCHQ is the UK’s leading cyber espionage and other form of communications intelligence. Russians “shot down their own plane” Revealing details of the state of the Russian military operation, Sir Jeremy is expected to say: “We have seen Russian soldiers – without weapons and morale – refuse to carry out orders, sabotage their own equipment and even accidentally drop their own their aircraft. “ GCHQ did not provide further details, such as how many aircraft and whether it includes fast jets and attack helicopters. But the information is understood to be based on intelligence. In his closed-door speech at the Australian National University in Canberra, the spy leader will highlight the role of mercenaries and foreign fighters in strengthening the Russian side. “Recently, we saw that Wagner seems to be raising it fast,” he said. “They are looking to relocate forces from other conflicts and recruit new fighters to boost the numbers. These soldiers are likely to be used as cannon fodder to try to limit Russian military casualties.” Read more: Zelensky offers Putin a way out of the war – but will the Russian leader step down? Cyber operations against Ukraine As for the cyber dimension of the Russian invasion, Sir Jeremy will say that his service never believed that a catastrophic cyber attack was central to Moscow’s use of cyberspace in a war. Instead, he said, there have been many cyber-attacks against Ukraine. “And we have certainly seen indicators that suggest that Russian cyber producers are looking for targets in countries that oppose their actions,” he added. He will talk about China’s position – the most powerful authoritarian state in the world – in the Ukraine crisis. President Xi Jinping and Mr. Putin “place great value on their personal relationship,” Sir Jeremy said. Follow the Daily Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker He will note that Moscow clearly sees Beijing as a supplier of arms and technology and as a country that will buy its energy to reduce the economic damage of Western sanctions. But the spy will say that Mr. Xi’s reasoning is more diverse. “He has not publicly condemned the invasion, possibly reckoning that it helps him oppose the United States. And, looking at the recapture of Taiwan, China does not want to do anything that could limit its ability to move in the future,” he said. . “There are risks for both (and more so for China) to be very closely aligned. Russia understands that in the long run, China will become increasingly powerful militarily and economically. Some of their interests are in conflict. Russia could excluded from the equation. “ Read more: Explain the invasion of Ukraine Image: Vladimir Putin “massively misjudged” the situation in Ukraine Time for the West to “rise” Speaking more broadly about global security, the GCHQ boss is going to describe the combination of a series of historical events – Russia’s war in Ukraine. the COVID pandemic; the growing dominance of technology and cyberspace; the role of China; and the end of the US-led campaign in Afghanistan – as a “period of generational turmoil.” It is time for the western, liberal democracies to “rise”, finding new ways of cooperating and cooperating, the espionage leader will say, in the midst of the challenge posed by authoritarian regimes. He will also stress the need to be “convincing and coherent” in order to have a better chance of winning countries that have not decided “how to jump”. “All this change will take decades to resolve,” he said. “But what I can be clear about now is that the way we approach these challenges will be just as important as our response.”
