Shortly after the ballot box closed at 7 p.m. local time, a broadcast on RTL, a private Hungarian television station close to the ruling Fidesz party, predicted the government would win 121 of the seats in the 199-member parliament. A six-party opposition bloc, the United for Hungary, which had gathered in a single attempt to overthrow Orban, who had been in power for 12 years, was set to win 77 seats. The opposition bloc led by Peter Marki-Zay is projected to win 77 seats and has complained of a huge imbalance in election spending and communication. Photo: Márton Mónus / Reuters The result, if confirmed, would represent a reduced margin for Fidesz from the current two-thirds majority – which allowed it to pass constitutional changes without question – but would be enough to further consolidate Orbán’s already narrow conception of power. It would be a severe blow to the United for Hungary opposition group led by Peter Márki-Zay, which sidelined their partisan differences last year in a bid to form a common front against Fidesz. The opposition has released a partial exit poll indicating a potentially different result – saying it believes it leads by 46% to 44% in the party list section of the ballot, in which orders are given by proportional representation, after a survey of 8,000 voters. Under Hungary’s electoral system, 106 deputies are elected primarily in local constituencies, while the remaining 93 are voted on through a complex list mechanism. The exit poll looked unrepresentative and analysts have warned that United for Hungary could win the popular vote while gaining fewer seats than Fidesz. Orban’s party has strengthened its position through a favorable media ownership structure and changes in the electoral system that critics say make the election unfair. Marki-Zay, a 49-year-old economist, bitterly complained that he was only given five minutes to broadcast on public television to state his case. The opposition has also complained that Fidesz has a huge advantage in election spending and communication. He said he had about 2,000 pre-election billboards across the country up to 20,000 for the ruling party. Akos Hadhazy, an opposition lawmaker, said: “Orban can tell any of his lies to the Hungarian people. “Even if we hire the best communication experts, the government will always win these games, because they can get their message across to far more people than us.” Even before the polls closed, opponents drew attention to possible voter fraud – the possibility of which prompted the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to send a team of 200 election observers. The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights has criticized what he said was a blatant surgeon in many constituencies. Analysts predicted that the conflict would mean that United for Hungary needed to win about 5% more popular votes than Fidesz to have a chance to win a parliamentary majority. The Clean Vote Coalition – a group of four Hungarian NGOs – said it had received many allegations of irregularities. They included voters who were offered 10,000 Hungarian forints (£ 23) for their vote and, in another location, meat was offered as an incentive. There have also been reports of voters being illegally transported by bus. Fears of fraud were fueled ahead of election day, as a large number of ballots – most said to be for opposition candidates – were reportedly found partially burnt in a landfill bag in the Romanian region of Transylvania last week. where many Hungarians have dual citizenship and voting rights. Fidesz’s predicted victory came after a high turnout – a factor experts say would help the ruling party – despite low temperatures and winter weather. Orban’s fourth term, his fifth, could also pose a possible conundrum for NATO and the EU amid growing concerns about Hungary’s stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and whether it is a credible partner. alliance. Although Orban has so far made no attempt to block sanctions and military responses to the attack, he signaled his reluctance to consider measures that would reduce Russian oil and gas supplies. He also refused to allow arms supplies to Ukraine or military aid to pass through Hungarian territory, angering NATO allies and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has described him as the only European supporter of Vladimir Putin. Orban, who has worked closely with the Russian leader and met with him 12 times, has stepped up his campaign since the outbreak of war on February 24 to place Fidesz as the “peace” party, vowing to stay away. a conflict that persisted. had nothing to do with Hungary. He said reducing energy dependence on Russia – which supplies about 90 percent of its gas and 65 percent of its oil – would damage Hungary’s economy. At the same time, he described Marki-Zay’s opposition bloc, which has called for closer co-operation with the EU and NATO, as “warriors” trying to send weapons and Hungarian troops to Ukraine. There have been speculations that Orbán – who has firmly forged ties with Russia and China, considers the EU an enemy and calls himself a “free” leader in recent years – will turn to a more pro-Western stance after securing his re-election. election. However, Daniel Hegedus, a Hungarian analyst at the German Marshall Fund, downgraded these expectations. “There may be some adjustment to the West, but in general what it is seeking is a return to business as usual with Russia – both in terms of energy co-operation and economic co-operation,” he said. Orban’s stance on the war had left Hungary increasingly isolated among its Western allies, but it has proven popular with voters, especially those in rural areas.
