“We won so big you can see it from the moon, let alone from Brussels,” Orban told supporters in central Budapest. The result in the central European country counts as a major surprise after pre-polling day surveys had predicted ruling party Fidesz and a united opposition to be within a few percentage points of one another. The hardline nationalist Mi Hazank (Our Homeland) movement looks set to enter parliament with 6.5 per cent of the vote according to the count so far. The group broke off from the former far-right Jobbik party in 2018 after it transformed itself into a centrist group. Orban, a populist conservative, has held power for 12 years, the EU’s longest-serving leader. He has extended his control over most walks of life on the way to forming a self-styled “illiberal democracy” in which checks and balances have been weakened and the premier has used his associates to form a new business elite. He has locked horns with the EU over an erosion of democratic standards and developed cordial relations with Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, while Hungary and Ukraine have differed for years over minority rights. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine had looked to have turned Orban’s close ties with the Kremlin into a political liability but the prime minister stood by his proclaimed neutrality even as domestic and international criticism mounted for him to stand with his western allies against Moscow and for Kyiv. Even as the opposition called him “the Hungarian Putin”, the prime minister argued Ukraine was fighting a war that had nothing to do with Hungary and that Russian energy supplies remained indispensable for Budapest. “We had to fight the most uneven fight ever,” Orban said. “The leftists at home, the international leftists, the Brussels bureaucrats, the Soros organisations, the international media and ultimately even the Ukrainian president,” he said to laughter from his audience. “But despite all the money and the tall odds, if we team up we can never be stopped.” Analysts said the victory reinforced Orban’s political course. Opposition leader Peter Marki-Zay addresses supporters on election night © AP “This was a prime minister election more than a parliament election as Viktor Orban’s high popularity ratings are reflected in the overall result,” said Agoston Mraz of the pro-Orban Nezopont Institute think-tank in Budapest. Daniel Hegedus, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, said Orban had received a strong new mandate to pursue his foreign policy, both in his attitude to Russia amid the Ukraine war and on other issues, and in his fight for a new ideological arrangement in Hungary and Europe. “The situation will become more difficult,” Hegedus said. “As long as the war lasts, unless Orban vetoes the joint EU actions, he will be protected from adverse action. A landslide victory now will push the EU toward accepting this as the new status quo: yes, it has authoritarian member states.” For a decade, a fragmented opposition has been unable to take on Orban, who won election after election. The parties united against Fidesz dominance in a 2019 municipal vote, then used that blueprint to mount a unified challenge against the incumbent in this year’s general elections. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe deployed a full monitoring team for Sunday’s parliamentary vote. The OSCE deemed previous Hungarian elections free but not fair because of the dominant presence of Fidesz in media and advertising and because of a heavily gerrymandered voting system. There were no reports of serious incidents during the day. The OSCE is expected to release its findings on Monday. Orban has held on to his job despite a difficult past few years, with Hungary enduring one of the world’s highest per-capita death rates in the Covid-19 pandemic, surging inflation and constant conflict with the EU over the rule of law. Although he has faced increasing criticism even from Poland, his closest partners in the European Union and Nato, he said he was not worried about international isolation. “An EU and Nato member can never be isolated,” he said. The election pitched Orban against Peter Marki-Zay, a 49-year-old Catholic father of seven and mayor of Hodmezovasarhely, a small town in southern Hungary. Marki-Zay was the unexpected winner of the country’s first primary election last autumn, beating more-established rivals. “I’m just as stunned as we all are,” Marki-Zay said. “We acknowledge the Fidesz victory, which would have been a strong one under any system. They won . . . they won because of propaganda, not because of honour or respect.” But the opposition candidate lost not only the national race but his individual district, where Orban’s former chief of staff, Janos Lazar, beat him easily for the local parliamentary seat.
