Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu pledged at a meeting of the military team this week that the recruits would not be sent to the front lines or “hot spots”. But the statement was met with skepticism by many in Russia who remember the separatist wars in southern Chechnya in the 1990s and early 2000s, when thousands of poorly trained young men were killed. “I do not trust them when they say they will not send conscripts to battle. “They lie all the time,” said Vladislav, a 22-year-old who is completing his studies and fears he could face the army shortly after graduation. He asked not to use his last name, fearing retaliation. All Russian men between the ages of 18 and 27 must serve one year in the military, but a large percentage avoid the army for health reasons or deferrals granted to students. The share of men avoiding the draft is particularly high in Moscow and other major cities. Although President Vladimir Putin and his officials say the conscripts are not involved in what Russian authorities call a “special military operation in Ukraine,” many appeared to have been captured in its early days. Videos emerged from Ukraine of arrested Russians, some of whom appear to be calling their parents, and were posted on social media. The mother of one of the detainees said she recognized her 20-year-old heir son in a video, although he was shown blindfolded. “I recognized him by his lips, by his chin. “You know, I would have recognized him by his fingers,” said the woman, who asked to be identified only by her first name, Lyubov, for security reasons. “I breastfed him. I raised him. “ The Ministry of Defense was forced to retract its statements and acknowledge that some conscripts were “accidentally” sent to Ukraine and taken prisoner while serving in a supply unit far from the front. There were allegations that before the invasion, some conscripts were forced to sign military contracts that allowed them to be sent into battle – a task usually reserved for volunteers in the military. Some of the arrested soldiers said they were told by their commanders that they were going to a military exercise but were suddenly found fighting in Ukraine. Lyudmila Narusova, a member of the upper house of the Russian parliament, spoke in early March about a whole group of 100 men who were forced to sign such contracts and were sent to the battle zone – and only four survived. Military officials did not comment on the allegations. Svetlana Agapitova, the St. Petersburg human rights commissioner, said Wednesday that relatives of seven soldiers wrote to her to complain that the men had been forced to sign the contract and were sent to Ukraine against their will. He said two of them had already returned to Russia. In recent years, the Kremlin has focused on increasing the share of volunteer contract soldiers as it seeks to modernize the military and improve its preparedness. The force of 1 million now has over 400,000 contract soldiers, including 147,000 in the infantry. If the war continues, those numbers may be insufficient to sustain businesses. The Kremlin could eventually be faced with a choice: Continue to fight with a limited number of troops and see the offensive stall, or try to replenish the ranks with a broader plan and risk public outrage that could fuel the sentiment. against the troops and destabilize the political situation. One such scenario occurred during the fighting in Chechnya. Dmitri, a 25-year-old IT specialist, has a postponement that should keep him out of draft for medical reasons. But he is still as nervous as many others, fearing that the authorities might abruptly give up some postponements to bolster the army. “I hate war. “I think it’s a total disaster,” said Dmitry, who also asked not to be identified by his last name, fearing retaliation. “I’m afraid the government could change the rules and I could face the plan. “They also said for months that they would not attack Ukraine, so why should I trust what they say about the draft now?” The proposed legislation would facilitate the draft by allowing the military to recruit more conscripts, but the bill has been put on hold for the time being. However, it heightened public concern. Alexei Tabalov, a lawyer advising conscripts, said medical teams at conscription offices often receive young people who should be discharged due to illness. Now, he added, their behaviors could become even harsher. “It is very likely that doctors will turn a blind eye to the diseases of conscripts and declare them fit for military service,” Tabalov said. In addition to lowering the medical standard for conscripts, there are fears that the government could try to impose some kind of martial law that would bar Russian men from leaving the country and, like Ukraine, force them to fight. “We have received many calls from people who are afraid of mobilization,” Tabalov said. “People are now afraid of everything in this situation. “No one had even thought before about the need to analyze the law on mobilizations.” The Kremlin has categorically denied any such plans, and military officials have insisted that the army has enough contract soldiers to serve in Ukraine. However, many Russians remain skeptical of the officials’ denials, given their background. “What kind of confidence could there be if Putin said one day that the conscripts would not be sent there; and then the Department of Defense would acknowledge that he was there?” Tabalov asked. An existing law allows an alternative 21-month public service to hospitals, nursing homes and other facilities for those who consider military service to be incompatible with their beliefs, but military conscription offices often ignore requests for such service. After the start of the war, Tabalov said his team saw a large increase in inquiries into the Alternative Services Act, which is vague and allows the military to easily reject applications. “We are concerned that with the current militaristic mood, military conscription offices may take a tougher line and reject calls for alternative public service,” he said.
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