Russia’s unexpected failures on the battlefield have led to a drop in morale among its troops that is in stark contrast to the Ukrainians, according to the latest estimates, which have managed to contain Russian progress and even regain territory in recent years. days. “The Russian commanders have really prepared their troops for failure by planning a very foolish invasion and carrying it out very badly,” said Fred Kagan, senior fellow and director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC. “The ineffectiveness of the campaign is so clear and the brutality of the Ukrainian defense is so obvious; (that) it has created a balance where neither side can move much from where it is now.” The story goes on under the ad
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In both his comments to Global News and an assessment published this week by the Institute for the Study of War, Kagan makes it clear that a stalemate does not mean that the war is over or that the outcome is certain. Both sides could win, he says – although winning would come at a very high cost. “Damage and destruction in Ukrainian cities are likely to increase even in a stalemate,” he said. But it also echoed the sentiments of US officials, such as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who told CBS on Sunday that Russian troops were being “beaten” after days of stalled progress. 4:37 Ukraine calls for additional Western assistance Ukraine requests additional Western assistance
What does a dead end mean?
A deadlock can arise when a military campaign – a set of important goals that commanders intend to achieve – is thwarted by many factors, including fierce resistance from the opposing army. In a stalemate, both sides continue to fight without significant gains from either side, leaving the front lines largely unchanged. The story goes on under the ad In Ukraine, Russia has made clear its intentions to seize control of the capital, Kiev, and other major cities, with the intention of overthrowing the government and appointing pro-Kremlin replacements. However, information has shown that the positions and territories held by the Russian troops remained static for several days, with no significant gains beyond what was achieved in the first weeks of the war. Most importantly, large convoys of troops and equipment remain stationary outside Kyiv. This forced the Russians to devote their resources to the territory they already occupy – hence the barbaric bombing of cities like Mariupol, which are completely surrounded, cutting off aid to civilians trapped there. This map shows (in red) areas of Ukraine controlled by Russia since March 24, 2022. World News Kagan cites the Western Front of World War I as a remarkable example of a past stalemate that has lasted for years. Trending Stories
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The story goes on under the ad “The Western Front was a dead end for most of the war, but during that deadlock unbelievably bloody battles were fought, including the German attack on Verdun and the British attack on Somme and the Battle of Passchendaele and so on. he said. “Nevertheless, the front lines have not changed much.” While other officials have been wary of declaring the Ukraine war a dead end, they are becoming increasingly willing to admit that it is likely, at least, to come. “If we are not at a dead end, we are fast approaching a dead end,” a NATO official told NBC News earlier this week. “The reality is that neither side is superior to the other.”
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Allen Sense, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia who studies military operations, predicts that the icy nature of the battle lines around Kyiv could mark the end of the current campaign. “There is a serious doubt that the forces at their disposal (the Russians) with the plan they were carrying out will succeed, which in itself is remarkable,” he said.
How could the impasse be broken?
Moscow on Friday signaled that it could make such a move, announcing that it would now focus on the eastern Donbass region, which has been claimed by Russian-backed separatist enclaves. The story goes on under the ad “The combat potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been significantly reduced, which … makes it possible to focus our main efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbass,” said Sergei Rudsoi, head of the Main Operations Directorate. General Staff. Rethinking Russia’s goals could make it easier for President Vladimir Putin to claim a life-saving victory, military analysts told Reuters. Moscow had said its goals included the demilitarization of Ukraine, which Western officials reject as an unfounded pretext for invasion and planned takeover. 2:16 Russia changes strategy to “liberate” Donbass Russia changes strategy to “liberate” Donbass Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Friday that 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed and 3,825 wounded since the start of the war on February 24. Ukraine says 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, and US officials put the figure closer to 10,000. Ukraine’s resistance has shifted in recent days, something Sens says has likely further discouraged the Russian military, and it has sounded the alarm in the Kremlin. He notes that Ukraine is recapturing Makariv, a strategically important suburb outside Kyiv, from Russian forces on Tuesday as a milestone. The story goes on under the ad “If this continues, and the Russians retreat and really lose ground on multiple fronts, that would be transformative,” he said. If more ground is recovered, the war could begin to reflect another key moment in the global conflict Kagan points out: Germany’s attempt to invade the Soviet Union in 1941, during World War II. In that case, the German campaign included clear goals for the occupation of Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), Moscow and Ukraine. But German troops remained at a dead end outside Moscow, while Leningrad was besieged for more than two years. During this period, Soviet forces were able to counterattack and force Germany to abandon its original campaign – only to return to Germany in 1942, culminating in the Battle of Stalingrad.
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“Opponents alternated offensive and defensive campaigns, but they almost always moved,” Kagan wrote in his assessment, explaining why the Eastern Front never became a real impasse. Experts say continued Western military assistance, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons systems, will help ensure that Ukraine’s resistance and counterattacks remain effective. Kagan says the war has turned into a story of two very different morals in rival powers, which has made it difficult to predict what will happen next in the conflict. The story goes on under the ad While the Russian military was seen as the superior force, it said the “incompetent” invasion had led to “several anecdotal reports that Russian morale has just fallen”. “The Ukrainians are fighting very skillfully,” he added. “They have high morale and they are determined to fight, and that created a draw. “But it makes prediction very difficult.” – with files from Reuters © 2022 Global News, part of Corus Entertainment Inc.
