Meteorological systems often follow patterns, so this potential for severe weather in the same areas may be more common than you might think. We contacted the Storm Prediction Center and spoke with Bill Bunting, the head of the forecast department, about the storms that have recently returned to the same areas. “The atmosphere has a pretty chaotic element to it, but it occasionally comes in patterns where we see this repetition. We’ve seen it in all ages,” Bunting said. “Unfortunately, this past month, and certainly for next week, the threat of severe weather will be present again, in many of the same areas that have already seen quite severe weather in just the last four weeks.” He pointed out that the intense weather phenomena week by week is strongly related to the placement of the jet stream, which creates the conditions for repetition. “These types of weather patterns typically feature strong southwest winds in the middle and strong southeast to south winds near the surface. This creates a natural wind shear environment that is conducive to organized thunderstorms and tornadoes,” Bunting explained. In addition, Bunting said the very humid air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico, which has helped the storms grow in recent weeks, is once again what we will see this week. Read how a storm causes a tornado
The schedule of the storm
This week is shaping up as a classic adverse weather phenomenon. “Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin to blow north toward the southern states and will converge with the cold front moving slowly across the southern plains,” the Weather Forecast Center (WPC) wrote. “This will lead to a steady increase in rain and thunderstorms from the southern plains to the Far South over the next two days.” The SPC highlighted an area that includes more than 10 million people at Level 3 of 5 risk for severe weather today. The “fortified” area includes Dallas, Shrewport and Jackson. However, even Baton Rouge, New Orleans, San Antonio and Houston could see storms. “There will be possible gusts of wind, large to very large hailstorms and tornadoes,” the SPC said in its forecast forecast discussion on Monday. By Tuesday, the threat was shifting eastward, but it still included some of the same cities as today. New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Jackson will continue to be threatened by strong weather on Tuesday, as storms will arrive overnight tonight to tomorrow. But we will also add Montgomery, Savannah and Charleston, which will be under the “enhanced” Level 3 to 5 risk of severe weather. The National Weather Service (NWS) office in New Orleans was bold in its discussion of forecasts. After two weeks of intense weather, they began by saying, “Bottom line ahead … strong to strong thunderstorms are possible late Monday night and Tuesday morning.” They went on to say, “All kinds of severe weather conditions are possible, with the threat of wind being emphasized at the moment.” While the threat of wind will be the greatest threat, tornadoes cannot be ruled out. “A catastrophic gust of wind and several tornadoes are possible,” the SPC said in its forecast discussion. By Wednesday, a separate system will be formed, bringing another round of storms to the South and extending the serious threat for a third day. “A second system is developing in the heels of the first, as an upper cavity deepens sharply and digs into the central plains and eventually into the deep south,” the NWS office in Atlanta said. Wednesday’s threat will once again be an “enhanced” risk of bad weather at Level 3 out of 5. This threat area includes more than 10 million people and includes Atlanta, Birmingham and Chattanooga. By Thursday, the threat is waning as storms push east coast. While the system is mainly bringing thunderstorms to the south, we will continue to see rain on Thursday in much of the east coast. Everywhere from Florida to New England we will see rain, so we could see some travel delays at some major airports on Wednesday and again on Thursday as this system moves. “Straight lines indicate a primary wind threat for any severe thunderstorms that develop, but care should be taken to monitor this event as it enters in the short term,” the NWS office in Atlanta said. Roadmaps are diagrams that represent the changing direction and speed of the wind with altitude.
When will the storm parade end?
It is impossible to say whether this will be the last week for this area that will be hit by strong storms or whether there will be a fourth week. “Unfortunately, there is no real ability to predict, looking at March and saying what that means for the rest of the season,” Bading acknowledged. “We have seen cases in the past where the pattern has changed dramatically. And while we can look ahead with it, it is difficult to really predict its seasonal nature.” When you look at the bigger picture of the weather, we have a declining La Niña, “and these often end in a very active season,” Bunting confirmed. La Niña is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon where colder-than-normal surface temperatures occur in the eastern Pacific, near the equator. It affects the weather all over the world, even resulting in a more active period of storms in the South. “So there are plenty of reasons to believe that the risk of severe storms is not going to diminish any time soon,” Bading said. Sighing … Indeed, we are. The peak season for tornadoes across the United States is April through June.
For record books
Although tornadoes can occur in any month of the year, the tornado season in the South lasts specifically from March to May, when we are just beginning. During May and June, the tornado threat begins to shift further into the southern plains, including Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. If the tornado season is already turning your head a little, there is a reason. “No matter how you cut it, March 2022 will be one of the most active marches in recent memory,” Bading said. In fact, March set a record for the number of tornadoes. It is the second consecutive year that the country has hit a record of tornadoes in March, reinforcing a trend for more severe weather earlier in the year and raising questions among scientists who have historically seen such weather events peak from April to early June. . You can read more about it here. The weather in the Southeast is much more dangerous than elsewhere, mainly because many of the storms hit at night while people are asleep and have no alarms on their phones. Also, because the southeast can be rather hilly and full of trees, you can not see the tornadoes coming as you can on the plains. Read more about why Southeastern tornadoes are more deadly and why scientists are studying these storms more than ever here. CNN meteorologist Haley Brink contributed to this article.
