Even if Russia agrees, the obstacles remain in Brussels. The reaction when Kyiv submitted an urgent application for membership at the beginning of the war said it all. There was the initial enthusiasm and desire to show solidarity. But a few days later, Brussels made it clear that there would be no quick entry. Some Member States, including France, are known to have reservations about Ukraine’s hasty entry into the bloc. There are two countries in the talks in Istanbul, but the main demands of Ukraine require agreement from others, and it is not at all clear that it will be imminent. So far the West has joined forces in supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion, but the test of this unity will be whether it is ready to support Kiev’s peace plan.
Crimea
Volodymyr Zelensky had already indicated that Ukraine was ready to abandon its hopes of joining NATO and agree to neutrality to ensure peace. But so far Ukraine’s territorial integrity has been a red line he was not prepared to cross. His government has said it will not give up “an inch” of Ukrainian territory. For the first time, Kyiv has signaled that it is at least ready to talk about territory. It is unwilling to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Instead, it wants long-term new negotiations on the region. He has proposed 15 years of bilateral talks on defining the final status of Crimea, with a commitment on both sides not to try to resolve it by force. This is probably designed to bring the Crimean issue into line for the time being. Mr Zelensky knows he will be under a lot of pressure to get it back from Russia. But he also knows that the Ukrainians will not forgive him if he gives it to Russia. Fifteen years of talks will be enough to keep the Crimean regime open, while it tacitly agrees to keep Russian troops for the time being.
Donbass
The issue of the Donbass region is even more difficult. Russia has said it is shifting its military targets to Donetsk and Luhansk.
