The exercise, in March, was the first time that forces from Finland and Sweden formed a combined brigade in a planned NATO exercise in Arctic Norway, known as the “Cold Response”. No country is a member of the NATO alliance. The exercise had been planned for some time, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 added to the war game. “We would rather be naive not to acknowledge the threat,” Swedish Major Stefan Nordstrτροm told Reuters. “The security situation across Europe has changed and we have to accept that and we have to adapt.” Sign up now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register This sense of threat means that President Vladimir Putin, who has launched what he calls a “special operation” in Ukraine in part to counter the expansion of the NATO alliance, could soon have a new neighbor in NATO. Finland has a 1,300 km (810 mile) border with Russia. In a phone call on March 28, President Sauli Niinisto asked NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg for details on the principles and steps for accepting new members, he wrote on Facebook. Finland’s leaders have discussed possible membership with “almost all” of NATO’s 30 members and will submit a review to parliament by mid-April, Foreign Minister Peka Haavisto told Reuters. Sweden – home to the Nobel Peace Prize and a country that has not fought a war since 1814 – is more reluctant. But a recent poll by a major Swedish television station found that 59% of Swedes wanted to join NATO if Finland did. For some in the alliance, the two countries between NATO member Russia and Norway are already partners. U.S. Gen. David Berger, who is the commander of the U.S. Marine Corps, told reporters at the exercise that – leaving aside the membership policy – they were brothers during training. “For the Marines, on a regular basis … there is no difference,” Berger said. “I just need to know that the unit over there, they have my back. They have covered me.” Stoltenberg announced in early March that NATO was now sharing all information about the war in Ukraine with Sweden and Finland. Both countries regularly participate in NATO meetings. At the exercises in Norway, Stoltenberg said that “no other country in the world” is a closer partner. But he made a significant difference: “The absolute security guarantees we provide for NATO allies are only for NATO allies.” As non-members, the total population of 16 million in Finland and Sweden do not have the protection of NATO’s guarantee that an attack on an ally is an attack on everyone. Moscow did not respond to a request for comment. He has repeatedly warned both countries not to join NATO. On March 12, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that “there will be serious military and political consequences” if they did, according to the Russian news agency Interfax. Stoltenberg said Finland and Sweden could be allowed to enter “fast enough”. NATO has not commented on what a quick process would be. A Pentagon spokesman said any decision would be taken by the countries themselves, but that their accession would have to be agreed by all 30 allies. “President Putin wants less NATO on Russia’s border,” Stoltenberg said in January, referring also to more allied troops in southeastern Europe, Poland and the Baltic. “But NATO is getting more.” MEMORIES OF WAR More than 1,000 kilometers southeast of the NATO exercise, 80-year-old Markku Kuusela knows the real war. The retiree, who lives in Imatra, a town on Finland’s border with Russia, was evacuated to Sweden with his infant brother after his father was killed in a Russian invasion. They returned to Finland only after the end of the war. “He is always in the back of my mind,” Coussela said as he visited the cemetery where his father is buried. Tears welled up in his eyes. “What would it be like to have a father?” About 96,000 Finns, or 2.5% of the population, died fighting the Russian invasion in two wars between 1939 and 1944. A total of 55,000 children lost their fathers and more than 400,000 people lost their homes as land was ceded. But the Finns, fighting under the cover of dense forest, repulsed the Russians and since then, Finland has had a clear goal: strong defense and friendly relations with Russia. The country has built up an army – it has about 900,000 men and women in reserve – and, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, one of the largest artillery pieces in Europe. For years, Finns and Russians have interacted extensively. This year, Imatra planned to celebrate a 250-year history of Finnish tourism since the visit of Catherine the Great, the Russian Empress, in 1772. Now the border station of Imatra is deserted, its benches unused. Finland’s security service, known as Supo, says Russia’s military resources are currently focused on Ukraine and its own domestic operations, but warns that the situation could change quickly. The invasion of Ukraine sparked nearly 3,000 applications from Finns for membership in local reserve associations, as well as nearly 1,000 in women’s emergency teams, the groups said. One applicant was Pia Lumme, a 48-year-old coordinator of the Finnish National Agency for Education who lives near Imatra. She remembered her grandmother’s war memories. “I think all Finns share … the will to support this country,” Lumme said. Finland is one of the few European countries to maintain a national emergency supply of fuel, food and medicine. The construction of emergency shelters under every large building has been mandatory since World War II. The country says its 54,000 shelters have room for 4.4 million out of a population of 5.5 million. Finnish support for NATO membership has risen to record levels last month, with the latest poll by public broadcaster Yle showing 62% in favor and only 16% against. Supo, the security service, said on March 29 that Finland should be protected from possible Russian retaliation in Helsinki’s NATO accession talks or from interfering in the public debate. “We do not need to make quick decisions about our own defense, but certainly a possible application for membership could lead to the goal of interventions or hybrid actions,” Haavisto told Reuters. “Finland needs to prepare for this and also listen to how NATO countries react.” CRISIS KIT Sweden, which has argued that alignment has served its people well, has been slow to see Russia as a threat – for example, it has allowed defense spending to fall and emergency shelters to be destroyed after the Cold War. But the mood there is also changing. Following Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, the government accelerated rearmament and strengthened military power on the island of Gotland, near the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Fleet. He also reinstated limited enlistment that year. Stockholm said earlier this month it would nearly double defense spending to about 2% of GDP and renovate a network of emergency warehouses to accommodate up to seven million people. He says there are currently about 65,000 shelters, mostly in private homes. About 71% of Swedes are worried about an increased military threat from Russia – up from 46% in January – according to a poll by Demoskop polls for the daily Aftonbladet on 2 March. Three retail chains told Reuters that sales of emergency prepared products had accelerated again after recovering at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. “Sales of crisis kits, clearing radios, water filters and water tanks – almost everything – have increased,” said Fredrik Stockhaus, founder of Criseq, a Swedish online store. Sweden’s statistical office does not count sales at this level of detail. If a country does join NATO, Finland seems ready to move first, diplomats and politicians say. Foreign Minister Haavisto said he was in “almost daily” talks with his Swedish counterpart on the issue. “It would not be ideal for Finland to go it alone, because then all the risks in the application process will be borne by Finland,” said Matti Pesu, a foreign policy analyst at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. In Sweden, the government and the opposition are conducting an analysis of security policy expected in May. Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson told national television on March 30 that it was important to wait and see what conclusions were reached. The ruling Social Democrats oppose membership, but four opposition parties support it. Even so, Sweden’s non-aligned regime is becoming increasingly murky, said Anna Wieslander, Director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council think-tank. “If you see it, we are getting ready to meet the opponent together and I think there is no doubt in which camp we are in,” he said. “You can see the warnings given by Russia, so there is no doubt on their part.” Sign up now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register Additional report by Anne Kauranen in Helsinki. Edited by Sara Ledwith Our role models: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
