The problem has been going on for years and shows a persistent complacency on the part of European governments that no matter what happens, there will always be gas from Russia. After all, even during the Cold War, Russia injected billions of cubic meters of gas into European countries. Now, things are different, and not just because of the war in Ukraine. Europe has been enthusiastically trying to reduce its dependence on all fossil fuels, not just Russian gas, for some years now. The EU recently boasted that by 2022, renewables accounted for 37.5 percent of gross electricity consumption, with wind and hydroelectric power accounting for two-thirds of total renewable energy production. Why, then, one wonders, should Germany prepare for gas cuts and France ask its citizens to consume less electricity? Now this has little to do with the war in Ukraine. The war seems to have whipped EU governments – and Downing Street – into a frenzy seeking to distance themselves from Russia by all possible means, including reducing Russian gas imports. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand for payment in rubles for gas supplied by Russia seems to have increased the desire of European governments to abandon gas, and the three Baltic states have already announced that they will stop buying Russian gas from on April 1st. use gas from storage. For later, there is either LNG arriving at the Klaipeda terminal in Lithuania or connecting to Poland. Lithuania calls on the rest of the EU to follow suit. Interestingly, the Baltics do not seem to have replaced their dependence on gas with their dependence on wind and sun. The same goes for the rest of the European Union. Earlier this year, Bloomberg reported that renewable energy sources across the EU were “marginalizing” gas. The report cited a study by the environmental think tank Ember, whose lead author said “These are moments and changes, for example, when governments and businesses start to take it much more seriously. Alternatives are available, are cheaper, and are likely to become even cheaper and more competitive. “Renewable energy is now an opportunity, not a cost,” said Charles Moore. So why the fight for gas now? Why not really speed up the construction of new wind farms and solar parks and show Putin what Europeans are made of? This is one of the most inconvenient questions of today, the answer necessarily includes references to the price of copper, steel, polysilicon and almost every metal and mineral product. In addition, the construction of these facilities takes time, more time than, for example, the transition to LNG (if you have import terminals) or carbon. Indeed, in a recently published plan to reduce Russian gas consumption – and oil and coal as well – the European Commission was betting heavily not on wind and solar energy but on more natural gas and coal. According to an analysis of the plan, published by the German Die Welt, the EU will seek to replace 50 billion cubic meters of annual Russian gas consumption with LNG from other sources and another 10 billion cubic meters with pipeline gas from other sources. That is a total of 60 billion cubic meters of the annual consumption of 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas. Another 20 billion cubic meters, according to the plan, could be replaced by the use of more coal, by Industry and Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton. This is the very Europe that asked for and is working towards the end of coal. It is Europe itself that planned to shut down all coal-fired power plants before 2030 in order to meet the emission reduction targets of the Paris Agreement. Europe itself is also betting on replacing gas with fuel oil to replace another 10 billion cubic meters of Russian gas. Overall, the European Commission seems to be planning to replace more than half of Russia’s gas consumption with other fossil fuels. By comparison, wind and solar energy are expected to contribute about 22.5 billion cubic meters of replaced Russian gas, with 10 billion cubic meters of wind energy and 12.5 billion cubic meters of solar energy. This is not too much for an area that is going to become the greenest on the planet in a short time. It seems, therefore, that the reality of energy supply and consumption is being reaffirmed, as the EU is in a gas maze. If his plan involves consuming more fossil fuels, then fossil fuels should be easier – and faster – to come and, perhaps, cheaper than wind and solar. Otherwise, why choose them instead of renewable energy sources? By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com More top readings from Oilprice.com:
